Week 10 Thoughts

It is pretty funny because I was going to start out by stating that the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears might be the best teams that nobody is talking about.  It is funny because for the time being, Matt Leinart will be the quarterback for the Houston Texans as breaking news is coming out that Matt Schaub is hurt for  a few weeks and there is some consolation as they have a bye this week.  I for one am excited to see what Leinart can do with a running back behind him and one of the best receivers should be coming back in Andre Johnson.  It is fair to say if he can't get it done with these guys, he is never going to get it done.  Fortunately for the Texans, they will have the Jaguars before they play Atlanta and the Bengals in the stretch run.

Cutler getting it done this year!

Michael Vick shows why he is not ready for the big time as this as when he has a bad game, it is really bad and keeps the Eagles from winning games.  He throws 2 red zone interceptions, one when they are up 7 late in the third quarter.  There is nothing wrong with kicking a field goal and taking a 2 score lead, Michael.  Putting up 10 points at home offensively against the Cardinals is unacceptable, I don't care who your receivers are.  Use your legs if you have to.

The Chicago Bears are very good and I noticed it last week against the Eagles.  That wasn't Vick, that was really good defense making it hard for him.  Could he have done something to win it, maybe, but I can deal with that more than yesterday as he looked awful out there.  Jay Cutler looks very comfortable, Matt Forte is the real deal and this defense is playing very good.  Dare I say, that they are one of the teams at this moment that could beat the Packers, because there aren't many.

The 49ers are a legit team.  I don't think they are going to the super bowl, but you can not fake 8-1.  You can fake 6-0 as the Broncos did a few years ago, but you can not fake 8-1.  They are going to end up with a #2 seed, which is going to be scary for the Bears or the Cowboys as those are the teams that I think are looking good.  Cowboys should beat the Giants out for the East as the Eagles have decided to pack it in for the season.

Tim Tebow is not your prototypical passer, but he is 3-1 in his starts this year, which is quite interesting. I don't think that it will matter much, he is still not the future but I am pulling for him.  It will be especially tough as Moreno is out for the year and McGahee is gimping around.

I think we saw a little bit more of what is expected from the Bills and the Bengals.  The Bengals kept it respectable unlike the Bills pathetic showing in Dallas.  I think the Bengals have done a great job this year, but I don't think they make the playoffs as they still need to play the Ravens twice, the Steelers again and the Texans, which will most likely have Schaub back at that time.  You do have to be pulling for Andy Dalton as he has done fairly well and was the best pick that Mike Brown has ever made.

Cam Newton started to show that he is a man and not a machine.  He will have some growing pains and even if he doesn't win another game this season, he has brought some excitement and energy to Carolina and could turn into a good quarterback.  Andy Dalton could be pulling away for rookie of the year if this keeps up.

The Jets are in some serious trouble as they are now 2 games behind the Patriots for the AFC East and 2 games behind Baltimore for the wild card.  They do have a favorable schedule as their only tough games left are Buffalo and the Giants at home, and if you can call it a tough game, Philly on the road.

Don't forget to watch Aaron Rodgers play flag football tonight against the vikings.  Should be good for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and that would be an average night.  Yikes!

Come back to Earth Candidates

The first guy I am going to talk about is Cam Newton.  After his walking on water performance, he should be a guy that if  you can get a superstar at a position of need, should be traded.  I still think he will have a pretty good year but nowhere near what he did to that Arizona defense that looked more like a scout team defense.  Going against a Green Bay defense that will be in his face a lot will force a lot of rookie mistakes.      

Ray Lewis

I still think he will have a good year, but I think you could take advantage of some people in your league that might have fell in love with him.  Do not start this week, which should automatically mean don't start Steve Smith as well or any Panther for that matter.

Chris Johnson will be fine as he has a coach that wants to run, a quarterback that really isn't able to throw that well anymore and he wants to shut up his critics.  Unfortunately, he is going against a Ravens defense, whose strength is the run.  I think the Baltimore defense is getting a lot of credit for last week and will come back to earth, just not this week as they can concentrate on stopping the run against the Titans.  The Ravens defense have a lot of new defensive backs and Zbikowski as the strong safety.  Lucky for them, Ed Reed is back there.  They played out of their mind last week and don't be surprised if there is a let down, not that it will matter against these guys as they should win handily and are a prime suicide pick.

Week 1 Thoughts

First off my apologies to the betting public, as going 1-2 is no way to start a season.  That being said, the Jets and Cowboys scored the last 17 basically from defense, so that should have went under.  Pittsburgh threw up on themselves and kudos to the Ravens who actually looked like they knew the preseason ended a week prior.  This will be the first overreaction as everybody will start saying that the Steelers are not that good and this will be a down year.  It was a bad game and that happens, they will figure it out and be fine.  The Ravens will be much better on offense this year and I like Flacco as a fantasy option.
Cam Newton will easily get the 15 passing and 8-10 rushing touchdowns I mentioned recently, but do not expect what he did yesterday to be the norm.  What I learned more than anything watching that game is that the Arizona Cardinals defense is bad.  Newton did not face much of a rush and the coverage looked more like high school as their were some pretty wide open guys that Newton was throwing to.  He did look good and he was not missing the open receivers, which is the important part.  If they get near the goal line, he is going to score some touchdowns though.
Dez Bryant, if he can stay healthy, will be an absolute beast and will finish as a top 5 receiver.  Not sure if he will stay healthy though.  Romo likes him and this kid will take the ball from people.  If you can trade for him right now in fantasy, I would go and get him.  He will be that good.
I can't tell if Mike Shanahan knows what he is doing or if the Giants have absolutely no clue what they are doing.
Stat of the week, the Dallas Cowboys were 241-0-1 in games where they held a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter prior to last night.  Not exactly, the way to start your first season starting as a head coach.  Cue all of the it wasn't his fault people.  My only response would be simple 241-0-1 prior to last night.  Pretty tough to argue with that logic.

Predictions Part Deux: Fantasy Sleepers

Now that most fantasy drafts have been done, I can add my 2 cents about what I think.  The always controversial first pick is an overrated one.  If you decide to take Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and even the oft mentioned Arian Foster in this years, you will be doing fine.  Any one of them can get injured and the fact that Foster is already nursing a hamstring injury does drop him a bit in a standard league. Now in a points per reception league, I think the risk would be warranted as he is much better in the receiving category than the other two.  That being said if all 3 are healthy, I am going to say I take Peterson last out of the three simply because he has to play against much better opponents.  The Titans and Texans both get to play a possibly very tired Colts defense if Manning does not come back for some time, never mind the fact that they are always a team that gives up a lot of yards on the ground.  I think the same can be said for the Jaguars, who most likely will not be putting up a lot of points as they just threw in the towel, by cutting David Garrard.  Teams will run in the AFC South as opposed to the Vikings who must play the much improved Lions, Bears and the Packers twice a year.
I think Aaron Rodgers will have a very good year, but I think if Ryan Grant and James Starks can start running the ball like 2 years ago, Rodgers will not have to put up the numbers that he did last year.  I do think that the Packers are still the team to beat with the Saints and the Eagles coming up third, as I do not think that Vick will be healthy all year long.

Mr. Newton could be a fantasy sleeper

A couple of wide receiver sleepers that I haven't seen drafted and are off the radar are Nate Burleson from the Detroit Lions, this is totally dependent upon Matt Stafford's health, and Antonio Brown from the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Big Ben has a lot of targets and this speedster will take advantage of single coverage, which will lead to some big plays.
I am not a big fan of Cam Newton as the number one overall pick, but I don't mind him as a reserve quarterback in a 2 quarterback league.  I think head coach Ron Rivera will have him take it slow and they will be a run heavy team.  Cam Newton is not a small guy like Michael Vick.  This guy can take some hits and keep going.  Defensive backs are not going to go head first with Mr. Newton and I am not sure linebackers will do it either.  Considering he is bigger than running back Jonathan Stewart and Deangelo Williams, get ready for at least 10 rushing touchdowns and at least 400 rushing yards (I think he will go over 400)  to go along with maybe 10 to 15 passing touchdowns.  That will give you some good depth and considering you can get him through free agency, a huge value to Vick who is usually going in the first round.
I will add snippets as I go, so if you are looking for some guys late in the week, I will try to pitch in and get you over the top on a week to week basis.

Relax People, They are Rookies!

Is it me or does it seem like everybody expects these rookie quarterbacks to come out and light it up from the get go?  Every time I read an article about a rookie qb, be it Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert or whoever, people expect them to go step for step with the elite quarterbacks of the game.  This is in spite of the fact that they have had much less time to practice due to the lockout.  

Blaine Gabbert went 11 of 23 for 96 yards against a decent Falcon defense and PFT (Profootballtalk.com) is stating that he failed to close the gap. Well David Garrard, who did not fare much better, has been in this league for quite some time and put up similar numbers vs a defense that probably played a very vanilla style defense.  The fact that Gabbert played as good as a veteran qb who has had success at this level, is closing the gap.  He has been practicing for less than a month and is just getting used to playing at this speed.

Even if these rookies sit for a year, what is the harm?  Let them develop like they used to and think long term instead of short term.  It could be worse, you could be the Redskins looking to tank a season.

Newton to go #1, Really?

Listen, I get it.  He is a big, athletic, charming and even good looking.  If you haven't figured it out yet, I am talking about Cam Newton.  There is a potential for tremendous upside, but aren't there enough character questions about this guy to not make him the number one overall pick.  Now, I am not stating that he is terrible and should not be drafted, but there are enough question marks that should drop him down in the draft to a lower first round pick.
I find it funny that every major analyst has him behind Blaine Gabbert for quarterbacks and somewhere in the teens as overall talent, yet he will most likely be the number one pick come draft night.  Good luck Carolina, as you are taking a chance considering you already wasted a second round pick(Jimmy Clausen) last year on a quarterback, who will probably be sent packing if Newton is picked.  Why not go and pick up an almost sure defensive guy, which there are a few out there, and get a veteran quarterback and have Clausen back up for the time being.  Another major problem was watching Julius Peppers go bye-bye last year and the Panthers need something to fill that void as well.  In my eyes, this is Marty Hurney, the Carolina GM making the decision and not the sensible coach Ron Rivera.  The NFL has become all about business and this is about putting fans in the seats, which to me seems the only reason to draft Newton first overall.  He could be great, but there are too many question marks to make him number one.