I fell hard last Monday night in more ways than one. Not only did I lose my suicide pick, but I also lost Julio Jones for the season, who had been my most consistent player thus far. Hopefully, many of you went with St. Louis over Jacksonville last week and did the smarter thing. So I need to take my own advice and move on to the next week and do the best I can this week.
Easy pick of the week is Denver. They are pushing for the highest line in the history of the NFL and this one should be put away by half as rumors persist that Peyton may be done at the half, bad news for Peyton fantasy owners, even though he might have 4 touchdowns by then anyway. Playing Jacksonville should be the easiest call, this will be unfortunate for those that have already used them, so let us find somebody else for those poor souls.
Let us go with the Bengals who are on the road, but will be facing Thad Lewis from Duke University and the Buffalo Bills. I don't expect this to be a laugher as the Bills have been fairly tough and have fought in most games, but an inexperienced quarterback against the Bengals defense may be too much. Andy Dalton and AJ Green have been off somewhat the last couple of weeks, so I expect them to get back on track. I do worry a little bit that the Bengals could be taking them lightly coming off a big win over New England, but if you need a team, this is the best fit outside of Denver.
San Francisco over Arizona is my desperation play as I know first hand how Colin K has been playing as he is my fantasy quarterback and this offense lacks so far this season. They are at home and I am assuming that their defense will do enough to shut down Carson Palmer and friends. This game, is one I am rooting for as I need Mr. K to come up big, but I don't love it. I think it is more of a lost faith in Arizona than liking the 49ers, until they prove me different.
Stay Away
Dallas has Washington at home and people saw Dallas almost beat Denver last week and they are probably thinking easy win....not so fast my friend. This is a big rivalry game and this is the NFC East, where anything goes. Don't count out RGIII and company and expect an easy win for Dallas in this one. Dallas is always good to lose a couple of games that everybody has them winning and this could be the Redskins game to show that they were a playoff team last year.
NY Jets, I know they knocked me out last week, but don't expect that just because the Steelers are 0-4 and the Jets are 3-2, which still sounds crazy, that this will be an easy win for the Jets. Expect the Steelers to throw some crazy pressure at Geno and company and the Jets defense has not been anything special this season. Big Ben and company will move the ball and this could be their first win of the season.
Friday, October 11, 2013
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Week 5 Fantasy
I think in week 5 we will see some guys who have had a tough time fantasy wise, start to come back to life. The first guy that I really like this week is an oldie but goodie. He is usually not on my list because he was a guy that should be started regardless of matchup until this year. Despite all of the injuries and the no name receivers, these guys are 4-0 and this week Mr. Brady is a guy that needs to be started.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, I know that he is going against a tough defense and that Gronk is not traveling this week, but this is a big game and they are not going to be able to run that well against the Bengals, so I expect a lot of throwing and Amendola is traveling, so that should be a boost for him also.
Jay Cutler, they are not going to lay down against the 4-0 Saints at home, so expect Cutler to try and match Drew Brees. He might not have the same stat line, but if he is even close to what Brees ends up with, you will be looking pretty good.
Matt Stafford, this guy is pretty much a must start every week, but I don't think he is there yet, especially in one quarterback leagues. At any rate, the Lions are going to Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood and Aaron is going to be slinging off a bye. Expect the Lions to throw a good amount to make this a game.
Stay Away
Andrew Luck, Seattle is coming to his home and I would not be surprised if Indy can pull off a win as this a very good team. When it comes to fantasy, a run heavy team going against the best defense, leads me to believe that you should not start the quarterback.
Running Backs
Demarco Murray, Dallas has Denver coming to their stadium and they are going to try and do what nobody else has been able to do, run the ball and keep Peyton off the field. Denver has a pretty good run defense but the Cowboys take pride in running the ball and have made a commitment to it. The only issue is that he does not get the touchdowns as often as he should compared to the yards he brings in.
David Wilson, I know it sounds crazy as he has not looked that good and Brandon Jacobs might take away goal line carries, but going against a bad run defense with David Diehl starting on the line for the first time this year, they may need to go conservative and run the ball this week. He should begin to make some headway now.
Rashad Jennings, maybe this is wishful thinking as due to a bye and no depth, I am forced to start this guy. He seems to be getting the bulk of the carries and he looks really good for a ppr league as he caught 8 passes last week in less than a full game.
Matt Forte, going against the Saints and he is pretty much a must start every week, so not sure why I even listed him. Should have a nice week.
Stay away
Frank Gore, I don't like him going against an angry Houston team. They might pull off the victory at home, but I think they will need to get Kaepernick going to do it. Very tough to bench this guys, but if you have people to do it, this would be the week.
Chris Johnson, until the Titans show that they can scare teams by passing, defenses will stack up against the run. The Chiefs have shown that they can slow down good runners, without the threat of the pass, this should be a bit easier for them.
Eddie Lacey, might get a touchdown, but it is getting pretty tough to run on the Lions. They do allow a big one here and there but for the most part they do a good job.
Wide Receivers
Green Bay Receivers, I think you can get away with any of the 3 amigos as they will be pass happy going against a good run defense along with an explosive offense in Detroit.
Mike Wallace, I think that they will look to get it to their money man as they have not been using him like he expected. They are a solid team, but if the Dolphins want to compete with the big boys they will need to be explosive in this NFL.
Reach plays
Alshon Jeffrey, had a pretty good week last week and I expect him to get a lot of targets as they play catch up with the Saints.
Danny Amendola, this is more predicated along the lines of if he plays. He is traveling, but you should make sure he is dressed and ready to go. Should make New England a much better offense if he is ready to go.
Kenbrell Thompkins, I would roll the dice with this guy again. He is the red zone target for Brady and if you don't have studs going, I would give this guy the start.
Justin Blackmon, I know it is the Jaguars, but this guy is a special talent and they have nothing to lose by going deep to him a few times.
Stay away
Reggie Wayne, now I missed on this last week as Richard Sherman ended up covering DeAndre Hopkins instead of Andre Johnson. Not sure why, but it really backfired. I imagine he would cover Wayne as I don't think they will put Sherman on T.Y. Hilton or Heyward-Bey.
Steve Smith, I think Arizona will have Patrick Peterson covering this guy and he has not done a lot to begin with, so I would stay away from Mr. Smith.
Tight Ends,
Greg Olson, I have never been a huge fan as I always thought he was average, but he keeps coming up pretty good every week. Not huge numbers, but always seems to get about 80-90 yards and a touchdown every other week.
Coby Fleener, Coby is starting to see more and more targets every week and you should give this guy a look if you are desperate. Probably not the best week to start him, but you never know if you are desperate, Indy does a lot of play action.
Martellus Bennett, this guy should be an every week start as he is always targeted near the goal line. Might not give you a ton of catches and yards week to week, but one of a very few tight ends that could pull down 2 scores on any given week.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, I know that he is going against a tough defense and that Gronk is not traveling this week, but this is a big game and they are not going to be able to run that well against the Bengals, so I expect a lot of throwing and Amendola is traveling, so that should be a boost for him also.
Jay Cutler, they are not going to lay down against the 4-0 Saints at home, so expect Cutler to try and match Drew Brees. He might not have the same stat line, but if he is even close to what Brees ends up with, you will be looking pretty good.
Matt Stafford, this guy is pretty much a must start every week, but I don't think he is there yet, especially in one quarterback leagues. At any rate, the Lions are going to Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood and Aaron is going to be slinging off a bye. Expect the Lions to throw a good amount to make this a game.
Stay Away
Andrew Luck, Seattle is coming to his home and I would not be surprised if Indy can pull off a win as this a very good team. When it comes to fantasy, a run heavy team going against the best defense, leads me to believe that you should not start the quarterback.
Running Backs
Demarco Murray, Dallas has Denver coming to their stadium and they are going to try and do what nobody else has been able to do, run the ball and keep Peyton off the field. Denver has a pretty good run defense but the Cowboys take pride in running the ball and have made a commitment to it. The only issue is that he does not get the touchdowns as often as he should compared to the yards he brings in.
David Wilson, I know it sounds crazy as he has not looked that good and Brandon Jacobs might take away goal line carries, but going against a bad run defense with David Diehl starting on the line for the first time this year, they may need to go conservative and run the ball this week. He should begin to make some headway now.
Rashad Jennings, maybe this is wishful thinking as due to a bye and no depth, I am forced to start this guy. He seems to be getting the bulk of the carries and he looks really good for a ppr league as he caught 8 passes last week in less than a full game.
Matt Forte, going against the Saints and he is pretty much a must start every week, so not sure why I even listed him. Should have a nice week.
Stay away
Frank Gore, I don't like him going against an angry Houston team. They might pull off the victory at home, but I think they will need to get Kaepernick going to do it. Very tough to bench this guys, but if you have people to do it, this would be the week.
Chris Johnson, until the Titans show that they can scare teams by passing, defenses will stack up against the run. The Chiefs have shown that they can slow down good runners, without the threat of the pass, this should be a bit easier for them.
Eddie Lacey, might get a touchdown, but it is getting pretty tough to run on the Lions. They do allow a big one here and there but for the most part they do a good job.
Wide Receivers
Green Bay Receivers, I think you can get away with any of the 3 amigos as they will be pass happy going against a good run defense along with an explosive offense in Detroit.
Mike Wallace, I think that they will look to get it to their money man as they have not been using him like he expected. They are a solid team, but if the Dolphins want to compete with the big boys they will need to be explosive in this NFL.
Reach plays
 |
| You could do worse than starting Alshon this weekend. |
Danny Amendola, this is more predicated along the lines of if he plays. He is traveling, but you should make sure he is dressed and ready to go. Should make New England a much better offense if he is ready to go.
Kenbrell Thompkins, I would roll the dice with this guy again. He is the red zone target for Brady and if you don't have studs going, I would give this guy the start.
Justin Blackmon, I know it is the Jaguars, but this guy is a special talent and they have nothing to lose by going deep to him a few times.
Stay away
Reggie Wayne, now I missed on this last week as Richard Sherman ended up covering DeAndre Hopkins instead of Andre Johnson. Not sure why, but it really backfired. I imagine he would cover Wayne as I don't think they will put Sherman on T.Y. Hilton or Heyward-Bey.
Steve Smith, I think Arizona will have Patrick Peterson covering this guy and he has not done a lot to begin with, so I would stay away from Mr. Smith.
Tight Ends,
Greg Olson, I have never been a huge fan as I always thought he was average, but he keeps coming up pretty good every week. Not huge numbers, but always seems to get about 80-90 yards and a touchdown every other week.
Coby Fleener, Coby is starting to see more and more targets every week and you should give this guy a look if you are desperate. Probably not the best week to start him, but you never know if you are desperate, Indy does a lot of play action.
Martellus Bennett, this guy should be an every week start as he is always targeted near the goal line. Might not give you a ton of catches and yards week to week, but one of a very few tight ends that could pull down 2 scores on any given week.
Friday, October 4, 2013
Week 5 Suicide Picks
Congratulations if you have made it this far, but it has not been that tough yet so don't go patting yourself on the back just yet. This is going to be the toughest week yet as many of the teams that might look like no brainers might not be. I know for the most part, everybody is just going to pick against the Jaguars, but they will get a win at the most unlikely time and you don't want to be caught on autopilot. This week, I am getting away from the Jaguar theme and I am going with a team that is 1-3, pretty scary thought I know.
Atlanta over the Jets at home will be my week 5 pick. They have lost 3 games to 3 teams that combined have only lost 1 game and that was to one of the other 2 teams (Dolphins lost to the Saints). This is a big game for them and they need to confront their demons in a hurry if they don't want to spiral out of the playoff race. They should be able to score enough as Asante is coming back along with some young defensive backs to contain Geno Smith and company.
Don't get me wrong I think St. Louis over the Jags is a good pick, but it could be that win for the Jaguars as well. They have a good pass defense and St. Louis has not shown it could run the ball yet this season. The Jags offense did most of the scoring for the Colts last week, so if they can keep that under control this game could be closer than we think. I do have St. Louis defense for fantasy this week just in case. St. Louis is not good enough yet to consider them a definite win over anybody.
San Diego over Oakland, I like what Rivers and company are doing and they are putting up a good amount of points against good teams. They should be able to keep it going against Oakland.
Denver and Green Bay seem to be big favorites, but these are scary games that I will stay away from. Denver is the best team thus far, but Dallas can keep them off the field with a solid run game and they are playing at home. Nobody has shown they can stop Denver yet, so it is hard to go against but I would stay away and save them for an easier week. Green Bay is at home, which is a big advantage but this Packer team does not have the same look as it has in the past. They are an offensive team that at times looks sluggish and they are playing against a Detroit team that is almost as good offensively but much better defensively. Green Bay is favored by 7 coming off a bye but that seems like a line based on past performance and I would stay away from the Pack this week.
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| Matty Ice needs to be ice cold to get a win this Monday night! |
Don't get me wrong I think St. Louis over the Jags is a good pick, but it could be that win for the Jaguars as well. They have a good pass defense and St. Louis has not shown it could run the ball yet this season. The Jags offense did most of the scoring for the Colts last week, so if they can keep that under control this game could be closer than we think. I do have St. Louis defense for fantasy this week just in case. St. Louis is not good enough yet to consider them a definite win over anybody.
San Diego over Oakland, I like what Rivers and company are doing and they are putting up a good amount of points against good teams. They should be able to keep it going against Oakland.
Denver and Green Bay seem to be big favorites, but these are scary games that I will stay away from. Denver is the best team thus far, but Dallas can keep them off the field with a solid run game and they are playing at home. Nobody has shown they can stop Denver yet, so it is hard to go against but I would stay away and save them for an easier week. Green Bay is at home, which is a big advantage but this Packer team does not have the same look as it has in the past. They are an offensive team that at times looks sluggish and they are playing against a Detroit team that is almost as good offensively but much better defensively. Green Bay is favored by 7 coming off a bye but that seems like a line based on past performance and I would stay away from the Pack this week.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Fantasy for Week 4
At this point, many of you have a feel for your team and it usually comes down to a couple of changes due to a bye or an injury. Much like the stock market, you can get into trouble buying high or selling low, which is something we all do when it comes to fantasy. Case in point, I am tired of Dwayne Bowe, so I am benching him this week, which would be in effect selling low after a 1 point effort in a PPR league. I would try to minimize this unless you have a really good feel, which none of us do, as I am sure that Mr. Bowe will probably score twice today. Try to stick with changes due to factors you can do nothing about and expect everything to average out. Let us move on to the picks.
Quarterbacks
RGIII, eventually I am going to hit it on the head with this guy. He threw for over 325 yards last week and did not throw or run for a touchdown, which does not go over well for many owners. I expect him and the Redskins to get a victory and RGIII to at least have 2 touchdowns.
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| Twice is a charm. Has to do good this week. He just has to. |
Big Ben, he had a pretty good week for fantasy owners, not a great one for Steeler fans last week. I expect him to keep moving forward with another good matchup against the Vikings. There are not a ton of great quarterback matchups this week, so you may need to use this one.
Eli Manning, whenever you count out the Giants and expect them to be terrible, you can count on them to go on the road against a good team and show up in a big way. Not saying the Giants will win, but don't be surprised if they do and the only way they do that is with Eli having a big game. Start him.
I would not start Carson Palmer if you have been in a 2 qb league and I would be hesitant to go with Rivers as Dallas has quietly shown to be a formidable defense outside of the first week. Dallas has also been running the ball a lot, which has shortened up the game by eating up the clock.
Running Backs
Trent Richardson, most people probably start T-Rich already but I expect him to have a big game as Bradshaw is out and he is been in the system for a couple of weeks and should be better acquainted. The Colts under Chuck Pagano are going to stress running and defense to the behest of the Andrew Luck owners. Should be a good one for this guy.
Lamar Miller, the Dolphins are traveling to New Orleans for a Monday night matchup of undefeated teams. I expect the Dolphins to run the ball fairly often to keep Brees and company off the field and then use play action to pass and try to hit a big play with Wallace. Miller should get a lot of touches and the only drawback is if he loses goal line touches to Daniel Thomas.
Bilal Powell, the Jets are going to bring Geno along slowly despite the Off coordinator wanting to throw all the time. Expect this dude to get a lot of carries as Chris Ivory is out for today.
If Denver made up their mind, I would tell you to start whoever is getting the bulk. Moreno should be a good call in PPR leagues as he should make up for it with a few catches.
Don't expect much out of Chris Johnson as the Jets will try and take him out of the game and let Locker beat them. You have to start Peterson, but I expect him to not do much as well, hopefully you get a touchdown out of him. Much the same with Marshawn Lynch as they are traveling to Houston, who is upset after a bad loss last week. He might be able to punch a couple in but don't expect many yards. I wouldn't start Green-Ellis as Cleveland has been quietly shutting down the run, but you may be able to start Giovanni Bernard as he is a threat out of the backfield and has been scoring lately. Spiller's role has been diminished lately and they are playing a rejuvenated Baltimore defense, but they run hot and cold so you may luck out this week.
Wide Receivers
Let me start by saying that I would really have to second guess starting Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green this week. All will be covered by very good corners who have been shutting down number one guys all year. Out of the 3 I feel the safest with AJ Green as Dalton looks his way so much, you might catch Joe Haden off guard.
Deandre Hopkins, usually you start a number 2 guy because number 1 is hurt, but in this case it helps as Richard Sherman will be on Andre Johnson causing Mr. Hopkins to have a lot more targets today. Now we just need him to catch it when it is thrown his way. Despite starting him, which caused me to lose, I am endorsing him for this week.
Kenbrell Thompkins, why not give this guy a look as we can't expect New England to get an easy win over Atlanta on the road. This could be a high scoring affair and I expect Brady to have to throw a lot in this one. If they keep Thompkins on the offensive left away from Asante, you should be all set.
Antonio Brown, he should be an every week start on most teams, but I don't think he has been. He is becoming in sync with Big Ben and should keep it going against a week Minnesota defense.
Ryan Broyles, taking the place of Nate Burleson who has been getting a ton of targets, Broyles is a lot younger and should finally start to play in this league. If you need one, take a flyer on this guy in PPR leagues.
Defense
Indianapolis, I like what Pagano is doing in Indy and going against a bad Jaguar team, I expect these guys to do some work today.
Baltimore, going to Buffalo against a rookie quarterback, this could be the type of game where they put up big numbers or lay a goose egg, which they are known to do against lesser teams.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Week 4 Suicide Picks
Hopefully, most of you are still alive into this week and there are a couple of good potential picks, but it always gets a little bit more difficult every week as you have most likely used the best teams to date. So far I have used New England, Houston and Seattle. For this week, I am going to use as my pick as many may be, is the Indianapolis Colts.
I don't think it is a total gimme as the Colts don't put up gaudy offensive numbers, so any given week they could be beat. Many people may be already jumping on the who is Jacksonville and Oakland playing game, but a team going winless does not happen that often so eventually you will get caught playing that game. The main reason I like this game is simply that the Jaguars have showed nothing offensively and Chuck Pagano has something going on with the Colts's defense. They are beginning to come around as they played pretty great last week in a big win over the 49ers.
Baltimore over Buffalo is a good matchup as the Ravens' defense seems to be coming around and I don't expect much out of the Buffalo offense. The main issue will be if Flacco and company lay an offensive egg as they tend to do to bad teams every once in a while. Baltimore and the Giants are 2 teams that probably kill the most suicide pools from my experience.
I would stay away from Seattle as they are going into Houston. The Seahawks are probably one of the 2 best teams at this point along with the Broncos, but they are not a great road team and Houston is coming off a pretty bad loss and are being written off for the most part this week. I don't think many people would be using New England this week, but I would not especially if they are without Gronk and Amendola.
If I had to pick off the grid, I would go with the Redskins as they are not as bad as they have played. I expect RGIII to go to Oakland and pick up their first win, which they blew last week as they had several chances. Good luck and see you next week.
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| Luck shouldn't need any of it against the hapless Jags this week. |
Baltimore over Buffalo is a good matchup as the Ravens' defense seems to be coming around and I don't expect much out of the Buffalo offense. The main issue will be if Flacco and company lay an offensive egg as they tend to do to bad teams every once in a while. Baltimore and the Giants are 2 teams that probably kill the most suicide pools from my experience.
I would stay away from Seattle as they are going into Houston. The Seahawks are probably one of the 2 best teams at this point along with the Broncos, but they are not a great road team and Houston is coming off a pretty bad loss and are being written off for the most part this week. I don't think many people would be using New England this week, but I would not especially if they are without Gronk and Amendola.
If I had to pick off the grid, I would go with the Redskins as they are not as bad as they have played. I expect RGIII to go to Oakland and pick up their first win, which they blew last week as they had several chances. Good luck and see you next week.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Week 3 Fantasy Picks
It is now week 3 and you are beginning to see who on your team will be somebody to count on. You probably won't have a true idea until maybe the fourth or fifth week, but there are definitely some guys that you know you can drop as they have been on the practice squad or maybe even been cut when you thought they were going to possibly be sleepers. Cut bait if you have a small bench and stick with guys you can use. If you have a deep bench and you think that you still have some potential home run hitters that you don't want to give up feel fee to do so. On to the picks.
Quarterbacks
RGIII, if you have been feeling bad about picking up RGIII, this will be the week that he is going to make you feel good about it again. The main issue has been the fact that he was kept out of the pre season and he is not in game shape or very confident in his knee yet. Despite practicing in training camp, it is not the same when you have a safe shirt on and you know you can't be hit. He needed those games to get mentally ready. I don't see them having the easiest time running the ball so he is going to need to be able to pass today. I also expect him to run a bit more as they will need to keep up with Stafford and company.
Andy Dalton, I don't throw him up on my start list often, but if they want to hang with Green Bay then Dalton is going to have to be able to hit his receivers. Obviously, he will be looking to AJ Green who was held in check last week by Ike Taylor, but look for Tyler Eifert to get more and more looks. He looks to be an Aaron Hernandez type TE that is a tough match up for defenses, could be a sleeper TE in deep leagues. Due to Pittsburgh not being able to score vs Cincy's defense there was no real need to force any throws last week as they felt comfortable playing it safe. They will not be able to do that this week. He should be a safe qb2 start and qb1 if you are desperate.
Carson Palmer, I keep putting him on the list as many people don't seem to think he is worthy yet. He has played it pretty safe and has kept his team in the mix in both games and I expect him to do much of the same today when Arizona goes to New Orleans. Could be a shoot out, but at any rate they will need to throw in this game. Safe qb2.
Really Desperate
Big Ben, a lot of people have lost faith in Big Ben, but I do expect him to turn it around. I would hold off in a qb1 league as I like to play it safe, but in a qb2 league, this could be time for him to start throwing especially with Tillman hurt for Chicago. Eventually, they can not just play it safe and will have to start throwing the ball instead of expecting their defense to win it for them.
Don't like
Russell Wilson, I know he has a great matchup but they might be up pretty quickly and they may just run the ball all day as they have been doing to some degree. He is not the worst start but there are better matchups out there.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch, obviously people are going to be starting this guy pretty much every week. I don't love Lynch but I do today as the Jags who actually have the number 2 pass defense, mainly because teams are running out the clock against them at pretty much half time, but at any rate expect much of the same today as it will be running and defense for Seattle.
Joique Bell, I am mainly putting this guy in because I like his name and if Reggie Bush does not go, this guy could get you 2 touchdowns just because of the offense. They throw to the running backs fairly often so a double bonus for PPR.
Desperation
Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling, not sure who will get the majority, but they are going against a good Miami defense. If you are in PPR, Rogers may give you a boost in that regard, but there is no telling if he will get goal line touches. Could be low single digits if you guess wrong with this pick.
Don't love
James Starks, I know he had a big week last week, but they were also up 30 fairly quickly. Don't expect that to happen against Cincy and a pretty stout run defense.
Matt Forte, in a PPR league he is a start, but in a standard league I don't like him going to an unhappy 0-2 Pittsburgh on Monday night. I know it is tough to bench somebody like this but if you have a capable backup, now is possibly the time to do so. I almost feel the same way about Peterson but even in bad games, he somehow puts up 2 touchdowns.
Wide Receivers
Garcon & Hankerson, I think both of these guys will get their share of targets as RGIII will be moving around a lot and will open these 2 up against a bad Detroit secondary.
Brian Hartline, should get a lot of targets if Mike Wallace is not able to go. Miami is going to be playing a good Atlanta team that should keep the pressure on Miami to score.
Deandre Hopkins, should get some targets after a good week and even if Andre Johnson goes, which he should, he will have Ladarious Webb covering him. This should make Hopkins a fairly decent target. Hopefully I don't eat my words with this one as I just put him in over Decker in a PPR league. Mostly due to the fact that I will probably get murdered and I like Hopkins big play ability over Decker.
Desperate
Josh Gordon, usually I would like to wait a week or 2 to see how he looks, especially with a quarterback starting just his second NFL game. I do think that the Brian Hoyer to Josh Gordon connection could prove to work. Without much of a running game, Hoyer could throw quite a few times as he will be all juiced up for this one. Hoyer could be a desperate qb start as well, but I am not sure who your quarterbacks would have to be to need to start this guy. Stick with Gordon if you have to for now.
Defensive Sleeper
Buffalo, I don't expect this to be a high scoring game so the Jets wouldn't be the worst call either. I didn't have a ton of options so I am personally going with the Bills as I like Manuel more than I like Geno Smith. I also need this to work as I am going against Seattle's defense which might put up 50 points today against Jacksonville.
Quarterbacks
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| RGIII will take off the safe shirt and play much better than he has today. |
Andy Dalton, I don't throw him up on my start list often, but if they want to hang with Green Bay then Dalton is going to have to be able to hit his receivers. Obviously, he will be looking to AJ Green who was held in check last week by Ike Taylor, but look for Tyler Eifert to get more and more looks. He looks to be an Aaron Hernandez type TE that is a tough match up for defenses, could be a sleeper TE in deep leagues. Due to Pittsburgh not being able to score vs Cincy's defense there was no real need to force any throws last week as they felt comfortable playing it safe. They will not be able to do that this week. He should be a safe qb2 start and qb1 if you are desperate.
Carson Palmer, I keep putting him on the list as many people don't seem to think he is worthy yet. He has played it pretty safe and has kept his team in the mix in both games and I expect him to do much of the same today when Arizona goes to New Orleans. Could be a shoot out, but at any rate they will need to throw in this game. Safe qb2.
Really Desperate
Big Ben, a lot of people have lost faith in Big Ben, but I do expect him to turn it around. I would hold off in a qb1 league as I like to play it safe, but in a qb2 league, this could be time for him to start throwing especially with Tillman hurt for Chicago. Eventually, they can not just play it safe and will have to start throwing the ball instead of expecting their defense to win it for them.
Don't like
Russell Wilson, I know he has a great matchup but they might be up pretty quickly and they may just run the ball all day as they have been doing to some degree. He is not the worst start but there are better matchups out there.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch, obviously people are going to be starting this guy pretty much every week. I don't love Lynch but I do today as the Jags who actually have the number 2 pass defense, mainly because teams are running out the clock against them at pretty much half time, but at any rate expect much of the same today as it will be running and defense for Seattle.
Joique Bell, I am mainly putting this guy in because I like his name and if Reggie Bush does not go, this guy could get you 2 touchdowns just because of the offense. They throw to the running backs fairly often so a double bonus for PPR.
Desperation
Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling, not sure who will get the majority, but they are going against a good Miami defense. If you are in PPR, Rogers may give you a boost in that regard, but there is no telling if he will get goal line touches. Could be low single digits if you guess wrong with this pick.
Don't love
James Starks, I know he had a big week last week, but they were also up 30 fairly quickly. Don't expect that to happen against Cincy and a pretty stout run defense.
Matt Forte, in a PPR league he is a start, but in a standard league I don't like him going to an unhappy 0-2 Pittsburgh on Monday night. I know it is tough to bench somebody like this but if you have a capable backup, now is possibly the time to do so. I almost feel the same way about Peterson but even in bad games, he somehow puts up 2 touchdowns.
Wide Receivers
Garcon & Hankerson, I think both of these guys will get their share of targets as RGIII will be moving around a lot and will open these 2 up against a bad Detroit secondary.
Brian Hartline, should get a lot of targets if Mike Wallace is not able to go. Miami is going to be playing a good Atlanta team that should keep the pressure on Miami to score.
Deandre Hopkins, should get some targets after a good week and even if Andre Johnson goes, which he should, he will have Ladarious Webb covering him. This should make Hopkins a fairly decent target. Hopefully I don't eat my words with this one as I just put him in over Decker in a PPR league. Mostly due to the fact that I will probably get murdered and I like Hopkins big play ability over Decker.
Desperate
Josh Gordon, usually I would like to wait a week or 2 to see how he looks, especially with a quarterback starting just his second NFL game. I do think that the Brian Hoyer to Josh Gordon connection could prove to work. Without much of a running game, Hoyer could throw quite a few times as he will be all juiced up for this one. Hoyer could be a desperate qb start as well, but I am not sure who your quarterbacks would have to be to need to start this guy. Stick with Gordon if you have to for now.
Defensive Sleeper
Buffalo, I don't expect this to be a high scoring game so the Jets wouldn't be the worst call either. I didn't have a ton of options so I am personally going with the Bills as I like Manuel more than I like Geno Smith. I also need this to work as I am going against Seattle's defense which might put up 50 points today against Jacksonville.
Week 3 Suicide Picks
The toughest part of this week is whether to figure out if you want to take the week off and just go with the obvious. This is that week that is soon as you are able to see who everybody picked you are going to see about 99% of people either picking Seattle or Denver, who if I had to choose I would go with Seattle. I am not sure yet if I am going to go that route and do I want to be the one of 2 guys who has a lot of faith in himself that he will go far in this season's suicide pool and want to save those teams. Well I don't, I like to get to the next week and truth be told the NFC West is scary and I think any one of the other 3 teams could beat Seattle on any given day. So picking Seattle going forward is not going to be a given and I will use them this week as I don't think they will cover 19.5 points unless the defense scores twice, but they should come out with the victory.
My Pick
Seattle, I pretty much explained that there is no way the Jaguars will beat them in Seattle.
Who else
Denver, I think they took a big hit this week with Ryan Clady out as I had blogged about earlier, but they still might have too much offense for Terrelle Pryor and the Raiders, who have not had the easiest time scoring so far.
San Fransisco, I don't think they can possibly lose after a week like last week. I expect Kaepernick to pick it up and this is third
Trap Games
I honestly feel that this is the perfect week to stay safe as pretty much every other game is going to be tough. Minnesota is not a lock over Cleveland in my opinion as Brian Hoyer may surprise some people. Cleveland has a pretty good defense and you better believe that they are going to do their best to stop Adrian Peterson. If they are able to accomplish that and Joe Haden shuts down one side, which he has done a pretty good so far of doing, this might not have the expected result.
New England, as much as I have faith in Belichick and company to become a playoff team, they may not have all the pieces yet as they are still missing some guys. This is a game that will be played in rainy weather and with Revis covering most likely Edelman, Brady is going to have some tough sledding. Tampa Bay could easily be 2-0 if they had any quarterback not named Freeman at the helm as he has not been able to help out this formidable defense. The Patriots have had a week and a half to get the kinks worked out, but don't consider it a layup if that was the route you were going to go.
My Pick
Seattle, I pretty much explained that there is no way the Jaguars will beat them in Seattle.
Who else
Denver, I think they took a big hit this week with Ryan Clady out as I had blogged about earlier, but they still might have too much offense for Terrelle Pryor and the Raiders, who have not had the easiest time scoring so far.
San Fransisco, I don't think they can possibly lose after a week like last week. I expect Kaepernick to pick it up and this is third
Trap Games
I honestly feel that this is the perfect week to stay safe as pretty much every other game is going to be tough. Minnesota is not a lock over Cleveland in my opinion as Brian Hoyer may surprise some people. Cleveland has a pretty good defense and you better believe that they are going to do their best to stop Adrian Peterson. If they are able to accomplish that and Joe Haden shuts down one side, which he has done a pretty good so far of doing, this might not have the expected result.
New England, as much as I have faith in Belichick and company to become a playoff team, they may not have all the pieces yet as they are still missing some guys. This is a game that will be played in rainy weather and with Revis covering most likely Edelman, Brady is going to have some tough sledding. Tampa Bay could easily be 2-0 if they had any quarterback not named Freeman at the helm as he has not been able to help out this formidable defense. The Patriots have had a week and a half to get the kinks worked out, but don't consider it a layup if that was the route you were going to go.
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