Matt Stafford Might Be All Grown Up!

Could this be the year?

We have been here before, many of times actually, where we are not sure what to do with Matt Stafford.  Sure, he has the talent, the big arm and the SEC pedigree, all the makings of a franchise quarterback, but it seems that consistency has never been his strong suit.  Many analysts point out how Matt never follows through with his fundamentals and every year it seems that there is a new coach in place to help him out.  Every year we see glimpses, but there is never any follow through and we always end up seeing an inconsistent Mr. Stafford.  I for one, was not looking to take him too high as my fantasy quarterback, although I do like him, but like many in the NFL, he lacks consistency.  One thing I look for in my quarterback is a guy that will give me at least 15 a week as I don't want the guy who gives me 4 one week then 40 the next, which Stafford has been.  This year, the quarterback whisperer has come to town and that is Jim Caldwell.  He turned Joe Flacco, who was having a pretty bad year into a Super Bowl winning quarterback in the same season.  Even though it has only been one game and it was at home against a not so great defense, Stafford showed some signs of maturity.  He did not make any major mistakes and looked a lot more patient.  He also realizes that he has more targets than just Megatron.  I am not saying that Stafford is the best quarterback in the league, but I do think he will be a lot more consistent and I would move him into a top 5 quarterback going forward.  He has a lot of weapons around including Megatron, Tate, Bush, Ebron, Pettigrew Fauria among others.  I think this is the year that Stafford and the Lions turn some heads.

2014 Fantasy Wide Receiver Sleepers

The 2014 Season has already started and we usually like to have this ready to go before the fantasy drafts start, but we were not able to get it done.  Hopefully, this list may help you down the road as there are free agents to pick up as many get hurt and many don't live up to expectations, so the season is just starting, which means keep this list handy as you may find this year's Alshon Jeffrey as he made this list last year.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans,  I know he plays for Tampa and Josh McCown is the quarterback, but remember that McCown was the guy who came in and decided to make Jeffrey his main guy and not Brandon Marshall.  So for people who think it has to be VJax in Tampa, do not sleep on Mike Evans, who has great body control and goes up and over defensive backs to get the ball.  He might be on the wire right now, so if you have a bunch of handcuffed running backs and need some depth at WR, take a chance, before it is too late.

Steve Smith doesn't need to look over
his shoulder anymore as he should
have single coverage.

Brandin Cooks, many people are talking about Cooks, but if you are in a ppr league, I don't mind starting this guy in the first week as WR3.  He is too quick for many people and like Tavon Austin, who was never given the opportunity last year, Cooks has Brees throwing to him and guys like Cooks make it easy for quarterbacks and they know it.
Justin Hunter/Kendall Wright, look for Locker to pick it up this season as people like him in camp and with Wisenhunt running the show, they will make sure to keep him in good situations.  These 2 receivers will be WR3's at the minimum by the end of the season.
Steve Smith, I know this doesn't make sense, but people are not drafting this guy and he has looked very good and with Torrey Smith getting the most attention, Pitta running around the middle of the field, Stevie will be getting single coverage for the first time in a long time.
Denarius Moore, he has turned in some good performances and is out there on most wires and is worth the look.  I would not start him against the Jets in week 1 with a rookie quarterback, but Moore will be at least WR3, if not a WR2 by end of the season.
Miles Austin, he is Cleveland's #1 receiver right now and they need to throw to somebody, so why not Austin.  The #2 is Andrew Hawkins, who should be more of a slot guy at 5'7", which means Jordan Cameron should be getting a lot of looks, but why not take a flyer on Austin, just in case.

Deep Sleeper

Kenny Britt/Tavon Austin, both of these guys have Shaun Hill throwing to them, so that is enough to scare people off, never mind the fact that people probably don't realize Kenny Britt is still in the league.  Don't sleep on Britt as nobody has ever doubted his talent, but his work ethic has lacked, which does not seem to be the case this season.  The good news about Hill, is that he may be looking for easy throws with a great defense that should keep teams to low scoring.  This leaves a great opportunity for Austin in ppr leagues.
Sammy Watkins/Kelvin Benjamin, these 2 are getting a lot of the publicity for rookies, but I am not ready to make them actual sleepers as I don't know where their quarterbacks will take them, but if you are in very deep leagues and you have room on your roster, stash them in the back and hope for the best.
Marquise Lee, not getting the same publicity as he is hanging out in Jacksonville, where receivers get no love, just ask Cecil Shorts, who has done fairly well and still goes undrafted as #1 receiver and could be on this list as well.  Lee has real big play ability and when Blake Bortles is starting by game 5, this could turn into a combo to watch, especially if Justin Blackmon ever gets his act together.

Deep Deep Sleep

Jordan Matthews, this is the Jarrett Boykin of the Eagles where he is sitting as the third receiver behind Maclin and Cooper, but in this offense, he can provide a real spark.  He catches everything and runs good routes and plays in Chip Kelly offense.  Keep an eye and pick him up if he shows promise.
Cole Beasley, this is the Cowboys' Wes Welker as he is very quick and still with the Cowboys after a few years, which means they see promise, as they probably learned from their mistake of getting rid of Amendola back when they had him as a young pup.

Fantasy Picks for Week 1 of 2014

It has been a long off season, but now it is time to get back in the swing of things as many of you probably had people going last night.  Some of you may have been happy (Marshawn Lynch, Percy Harvin owners) and others of you may have not been (Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy owners).  This is the life that we chose and once the decision is made we need to stick with it.  Get ready for another year of these dizzying weeks of big decisions to be made.  Hopefully, ATP can help out as this will be our first weekly edition of picks.

Quarterbacks

Must Start

Matty Ice ready to start
2014 on a high note.

Tom Brady, as was posted in an earlier blog, Brady should get back to 30+ touchdowns this year, now that Gronk seems to be back.  Going against Miami in Miami has never been the best games for the Patriots, but this team looks as if they have a lot to prove and I think that Brady feels the same way.  Should be a big one for him.
Jay Cutler, much of what was said for Brady can apply to Cutler, except Cutler just has a bunch of great toys running around and with Trestman running the show playing against Buffalo, this should be a big game for him.
Colin Kaepernick, I was really high on CK last year and probably due to Crabtree not being there to start the year, he did not do what was needed for fantasy owners.  This year is a different story and when Crabtree did come back, CK had a great run.  I am going to back him and if there was any week to start him, this would be it as Dallas can not stop a Texas high school team at this point.
Matt Ryan, don't sleep on this guy as he lost Gonzo, but has Julio and Roddy back at full strength.  Look for Ryan to have a big year, even if I am not sold on the Falcons.  The one major issue will be the offensive line.

Don't Start

Ryan Tannehill, the Patriots defense has a new look secondary, Mayo and Wilfork are back, which could be dangerous for opposing offenses.  This would not be the week to start Tannehill.
Jake Locker, this is a guy that I consider a sleeper for the season as a whole, but going into KC on a season opener. People would be wise to wait a couple of weeks to see what you can get out of him.
Phillip Rivers, I don't mind Rivers, but going into Arizona might be a tough game for him.  Peterson will be covering Allen, Gates is getting old and not sure about the rest.  This could be a lower scoring game and might not be worth the gamble this week.

Sleeper

Geno Smith, here is an underrated player that plays in an offense that likes to run the ball.  Mr. Smith has Oakland coming in to town and in a 2 quarterback league, could come in and give you 20+ points as QB2.  He has new weapons and the fact that defenses focus on the run against the Jets, could open things up.
Joe Flacco, nobody is talking about Wacco for Flacco and I think that is how they like it in Baltimore.  With some new toys in Smith and Pitta being healthy, expect this offense to do fairly well this year.  I have confidence in Flacco and in a 2 qb league, would be fine to start as my QB2, would be a must start if he was playing somebody other than Cincy.

Running Backs

Start

Arian Foster, coming off an injury plagued year, Foster will be the main guy, now that Tate is in Cleveland.  He is at 100% and should get a lot of touches, which should make for an interesting game vs the Redskins. The main issue will be if Fitzpatrick can keep the Redskins from putting 8 in the box and giving him some room.
Frank Gore, Gore's worst enemy will most likely be himself.  He is getting older and he has Carlos Hyde on his tail.  Outside of that, this is a great week to start him as he is going against Dallas and they are picking up semi pro guys to help out on defense.  Gore should score 1 or 2 against these guys.
Chris Johnson, Oakland is coming to town and Johnson is looking pretty good.  The big question is whether he will be taken out near the goal line.  He should have a big year yardage wise and the Jets are committed to the running game.  People who drafted him after round 5 definitely got some value.

Don't Start

Lamar Miller, not sure if he will be the main guy this season with Moreno breathing down his neck, but the new look Patriot defense will do a good job against the run this season and should contain Miller.
MJD, the Jets pride themselves on stopping the run and with maybe the best interior defensive line in the NFL, sorry Detroit, this should be tough for MJD to get going in his first game as a Raider.
Ryan Matthews, I am not sold yet as to what will happen in San Diego with Donald Brown and Woodhead still being involved in the offense.  Arizona is missing some guys on the interior defense, but I would still wait and see how Matthews does before starting him.
Rashad Jennings, not that I mind Jennings as he has done okay in the time that I have seen him play, but it is too early to take him with the way the Giants line is playing against Detroit's defensive line is playing.  Stay away from this guy.

Sleepers

Toby Gerehart, not a huge fan, but going against the Eagles, the Jaguars are going to want to keep some type of ball control and keep the ball out of Philly's hands.  There should be no worry about goal line carries either, so this should work for Gerehart owners.  To top it off, Philly's defense is not known for their run stopping as they like to have smaller, faster guys, which can be pushed around.
Steven Jackson, expect a high scoring game as the Saints are coming to town and much like Dallas, they do not do a good job against the run.  Should get goal line carries, which should put him in the end zone at least once.

Wide Receivers

Roddy White, let us start this year with a guy that showed that people wrote off but ATP still loves.  White, is not Julio Jones, but he still has plenty left in the tank.  Going against New Orleans with Julio on the other side and a determined Matt Ryan.  Feel confident in starting White this week.
Eric Decker, should have a lot of targets as the only real outside receiver on the roster.  In a ppr league, should be good as he will have his share of catches, but much like Jordy last night, probably won't find the end zone.
Julian Edelman, watching the game last night and seeing Rodgers to Nelson so many times, reminds me how quarterbacks love to throw to certain guys and Brady to Edelman is one of those combinations.  Edelman does not find the end zone a ton, but in a ppr league, should be a wr2 start almost every week.
Jeremy Maclin, not enough people talking about Maclin as when he is on the field, he is a difference maker.  Unfortunately for his owners, him being on the field has been a challenge in itself.  No Jackson give Maclin his chance at showing the world what he can do and I think he answers the bell.  Good start against the Jags defense.
Emmanuel Sanders, I expect this guy to have a really big year as he blows the roof off of coverages.  He is too fast and there are too many weapons in Denver.  Start and be happy.

Don't Start

Keenan Allen, tough not to start this guy as you need to go with your best, but Peterson is coming to town and he will be covering Allen most likely, so start at  your own risk.
Mike Wallace, this one is kind of a toss up as we are not sure what the Patriots will do with Revis.  The Patriots do not always lock receivers up with shut down corners, but would stay away just in case.

Sleepers

Steve Smith, this guy is a beast and with Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta out there with him, Smith will have single coverage for the first time in a long time.  Should be good for ppr leagues.

Cody Latimer, if you are really hurting in a deep league, which you shouldn't be as it is the first week, this guy could be a real deep sleeper.  Denver might move Sanders to Welker's spot and move Latimer out wide, which will guarantee him some looks with Manning out there.  Could be a good pick if you are doing a FanDuel type of league for cheap money.

Tight Ends

Sleepers

Dennis Pitta, I have already explained how much I like the offense and despite playing the Bengals.  Pitta is the security blanket for Flacco and with the Smith's manning the outside receiver spots, the middle should like nice and open for Pitta.
Jordan Reed, Reed is a freak athlete that should have a good year if Griffin is back.  It will be tough for teams to cover Reed when you have Garcon and Jackson on the outside.  Don't think the Redskins will be able to run too effectively so they may be throwing a lot of conservative passes to not get Griffin killed, which bodes well for Reed.

Defenses

Patriots, I like these guys and they are going to Miami, which does not play well with the heat, but I am confident that they can shut down the weaponless Miami Dolphin offense.
Eagles, with the Jags coming to town and a revamped Eagle secondary ready to feast on Henne throws, this could be a nice game to start this defense.
Jets, Oakland is making the cross country trek and are starting a rookie at quarterback.  I don't mind Carr, but I will take my chances with Rex and his defense against a rookie.

Why You Should Love The Patriots For Fantasy This Year!

Look for Brady to have a big year along with a
slew of other Patriots.  With Gronk back, this
is a different team, especially for fantasy.

The Patriots, much like many of the past seasons recently, made it to the AFC championship, only to lose to a much better Bronco team.  Brady had a pretty good season, fairly pedestrian for him since he went berserk in 2007, but much like the years previous with more yards.  Many have begun to state how it is the beginning of his downfall or he didn't have receivers or whatever the case people wanted to make.  Here at ATP, we have thought differently, as we have linked it to a few different factors including Gronk missing most of the season, Hernandez going on a killing spree, Amendola being injured or not on the same page as Brady among other ideas.  There is also the idea that maybe the Patriots realizing with defenses changing up due to the pass heavy offenses of the NFL, going with more of a run approach with a threat to pass is good enough to get you to the AFC Championship, which in case you didn't notice, worked. 
The 2014 Patriots, seem to be going all in as they have acquired Revis, which a few years ago would have seemed insane for Belichick to do.  I think that many people complain as they did not do enough to help the offense, I contend that there was not much for them to do.  Gronk coming back, does so much to help this offense that I don't think people realize.  Losing Hernandez on top of Gronk changed the offense last year tremendously.  This year, they went out and got Tim Wright, who in one scenario can be Gronk insurance or he can be just the type of guy that can take over where Hernandez left off.  This all leads to how does it affect how you should be drafting Patriots for fantasy football.  The 2 guys I am highest on are Brady and Gronk.  Brady seems to be an after thought in many drafts, which shows that people rely too much on old information.  His best games last season were when Gronk was in the mix.  When he was not, the Patriots were happy to rely on their running game and Brady making good reads when needed, but limiting their turnover potential.  At running back, you will be safe with either Vareen or Ridley, but Vareen should be taken a few rounds behind in non ppr leagues as I don't think there is any situation where he carries the ball for 20 times a game outside of one game, maybe two, which will be game plan situations.  Ridley will be their goal line back and as long as he doesn't fumble will have a lot more room to run with Gronk in the mix.  Two guys that can be picked up relatively late or even as free agents are Amendola and Tim Wright as they could both be good value picks.  Amendola would be a better ppr pick as well as he is not going to be a scoring machine.  Edelman, who I think will have a good year, is going too high in most drafts.  He may be worth it in a ppr league, but I think his catches might be similar to last year, but his touchdowns and yards will take a hit with everybody back in the mix, which will hurt in regular fantasy leagues.  This is a team that will surprise a lot of teams fantasy wise and I like them as the best team in the AFC this season.

Brandon Marshall vs Alshon Jeffrey

Alshon should have a good to
very good year, but go with
Marshall, if you have
 the chance.

With fantasy football right around the corner and in many instances, drafts have already have happened, there are many discussions about who to pick where and why and what not.  I usually choose not to write too much until I have done my draft as I feel that I could be giving up some personal info.  One of the more interesting dilemmas that I don't mind sharing is where I stand on Brandon Marshall vs Alshon Jeffrey.  Some of you might remember that I had Alshon as one of my sleepers before the season, which worked out except for the fact that I drafted him, dropped him for a week and my sister in law picked him up before I was able to get him back.  Cutler then got hurt, Jeffrey ripped up the NFL and my sister in law won the league.  All that being said, as long as Cutler is the quarterback, Marshall is the guy you want to pick first.  No questions about it, don't make the mistake of going for Alshon before Marshall as it will hurt you severely.  Alshon should do fine this year, but Cutler and Marshall have at least a couple of more years of knowing each other inside and out, which will lead to big numbers.  Now, if you have a feeling that Cutler is going to get hurt, I am not sure it will make a big difference as McCown and Jeffrey had practiced together for a while, which is why they both had a good rapport.  This year, Jimmy Clausen is the back up and I don't think he cares who he throws to as long as they make him keep his job for another year.  Marshall should be a top 5 receiver pick and Jeffrey should be in the next 5 to be safe.  While I am on the subject, if you don't get one of the top quarterbacks and you are in a 1 quarterback league, feel free to wait and pick up Cutler as he should be a monster as long as he doesn't get hurt.

Revis Island Bringing Some Heat to New England

It seems that for everybody saying how Mr. Revis is a me-me kind of guy, he seems to have changed his ways as he could have commanded a long term deal for a couple of million more a year to a few other

Revis takes a big risk, Pats
take little.  They do it again!

teams.  My friends, those of you who complain about the Patriot way constantly, is why this is the best franchise in football.  As I don't know if he would have done this anywhere else but here.  It is still a big risk for him, because if he gets hurt, the window to another bid payday just became slim to none. If healthy, he should be great as a year removed from knee surgery is usually when they begin to play much closer to 100%.  He will play in a great system as he will be able to go from man to man as well as rob coverage a lot and he should have some big numbers as it will be tough to avoid him as he won't be man to man as much.  

This is a huge shift from the way of the Patriots, but they realize that they should probably bring in somebody like this as they know they will be playing the Broncos at least once if not twice.  This will probably mean that Adrian Wilson is gone to make some more cap room, but they can always find safeties as Belichick is the master of making bad safeties look good.  This move makes perfect sense for the Patriots, I am just not sure if they will take the plunge on a long term deal as people are speculating.  If they were going to do that, it would have made sense to have already done it, but I expect Revis will want big money going forward and we will have to wait and see what the Patriots do.

Broncos and Browns Make Early Splash in Free Agency

There has been a lot of buzz about free agency and Denver and Cleveland have been definitely showing people the money.  Cleveland started it off by picking up Karlos Dansby from Arizona and Donte Whitner who will be able to fill the role left by TJ Ward, who signed with the Denver Broncos.  Along with Ward, the Broncos went and signed some big names and talent with Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib coming aboard.  Make no mistake, they missed Dumervil coming off the edge last year, even more so when Von Miller went down and they went and picked up a lot of sacks as long as he can stay healthy that is.  Talib is a very good corner that got to go from one winning organization to another and picked up some money along the way.

Ware will be hungry to play for a winner and offenses
will have a hard time double teaming with Miller
coming off the other side!

The Broncos are making a statement and they know that they will need some help on defense, but more important Ryan Clady will be back and that would have helped out in the Super Bowl.  It wouldn't have been enough as Seattle played possessed, but it would have slowed down the rush on Peyton's blind side as he is more than likely a top 3 tackle.  So, as of right now, I would gladly take some money and put it down on the Broncos to win over 11 games as their defense just got a huge upgrade.
The Browns have done one thing more than any other, is given their fan base some hope as this is a signal that they are going to do what it takes to become a good team.  With Mike Pettine as a defense minded head coach, it is not a surprise that they took these guys first and may make a run at Revis to go along with under rated and ATP favorite Joe Haden.  That would instantly make this team good in my opinion.  They have a good amount of early round draft picks, with the number 4 overall pick, who will definitely be a quarterback as they just released Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell.  It would have been anyway, but those releases just proved beyond a shadow of a doubt and I still like Brian Hoyer, who hopefully is able to come back from ACL surgery and show that he can still play at this level.