Friday, September 5, 2014

Fantasy Picks for Week 1 of 2014

It has been a long off season, but now it is time to get back in the swing of things as many of you probably had people going last night.  Some of you may have been happy (Marshawn Lynch, Percy Harvin owners) and others of you may have not been (Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy owners).  This is the life that we chose and once the decision is made we need to stick with it.  Get ready for another year of these dizzying weeks of big decisions to be made.  Hopefully, ATP can help out as this will be our first weekly edition of picks.

Quarterbacks

Must Start

Matty Ice ready to start
2014 on a high note.
Tom Brady, as was posted in an earlier blog, Brady should get back to 30+ touchdowns this year, now that Gronk seems to be back.  Going against Miami in Miami has never been the best games for the Patriots, but this team looks as if they have a lot to prove and I think that Brady feels the same way.  Should be a big one for him.
Jay Cutler, much of what was said for Brady can apply to Cutler, except Cutler just has a bunch of great toys running around and with Trestman running the show playing against Buffalo, this should be a big game for him.
Colin Kaepernick, I was really high on CK last year and probably due to Crabtree not being there to start the year, he did not do what was needed for fantasy owners.  This year is a different story and when Crabtree did come back, CK had a great run.  I am going to back him and if there was any week to start him, this would be it as Dallas can not stop a Texas high school team at this point.
Matt Ryan, don't sleep on this guy as he lost Gonzo, but has Julio and Roddy back at full strength.  Look for Ryan to have a big year, even if I am not sold on the Falcons.  The one major issue will be the offensive line.

Don't Start

Ryan Tannehill, the Patriots defense has a new look secondary, Mayo and Wilfork are back, which could be dangerous for opposing offenses.  This would not be the week to start Tannehill.
Jake Locker, this is a guy that I consider a sleeper for the season as a whole, but going into KC on a season opener. People would be wise to wait a couple of weeks to see what you can get out of him.
Phillip Rivers, I don't mind Rivers, but going into Arizona might be a tough game for him.  Peterson will be covering Allen, Gates is getting old and not sure about the rest.  This could be a lower scoring game and might not be worth the gamble this week.

Sleeper

Geno Smith, here is an underrated player that plays in an offense that likes to run the ball.  Mr. Smith has Oakland coming in to town and in a 2 quarterback league, could come in and give you 20+ points as QB2.  He has new weapons and the fact that defenses focus on the run against the Jets, could open things up.
Joe Flacco, nobody is talking about Wacco for Flacco and I think that is how they like it in Baltimore.  With some new toys in Smith and Pitta being healthy, expect this offense to do fairly well this year.  I have confidence in Flacco and in a 2 qb league, would be fine to start as my QB2, would be a must start if he was playing somebody other than Cincy.

Running Backs

Start

Arian Foster, coming off an injury plagued year, Foster will be the main guy, now that Tate is in Cleveland.  He is at 100% and should get a lot of touches, which should make for an interesting game vs the Redskins. The main issue will be if Fitzpatrick can keep the Redskins from putting 8 in the box and giving him some room.
Frank Gore, Gore's worst enemy will most likely be himself.  He is getting older and he has Carlos Hyde on his tail.  Outside of that, this is a great week to start him as he is going against Dallas and they are picking up semi pro guys to help out on defense.  Gore should score 1 or 2 against these guys.
Chris Johnson, Oakland is coming to town and Johnson is looking pretty good.  The big question is whether he will be taken out near the goal line.  He should have a big year yardage wise and the Jets are committed to the running game.  People who drafted him after round 5 definitely got some value.

Don't Start

Lamar Miller, not sure if he will be the main guy this season with Moreno breathing down his neck, but the new look Patriot defense will do a good job against the run this season and should contain Miller.
MJD, the Jets pride themselves on stopping the run and with maybe the best interior defensive line in the NFL, sorry Detroit, this should be tough for MJD to get going in his first game as a Raider.
Ryan Matthews, I am not sold yet as to what will happen in San Diego with Donald Brown and Woodhead still being involved in the offense.  Arizona is missing some guys on the interior defense, but I would still wait and see how Matthews does before starting him.
Rashad Jennings, not that I mind Jennings as he has done okay in the time that I have seen him play, but it is too early to take him with the way the Giants line is playing against Detroit's defensive line is playing.  Stay away from this guy.

Sleepers

Toby Gerehart, not a huge fan, but going against the Eagles, the Jaguars are going to want to keep some type of ball control and keep the ball out of Philly's hands.  There should be no worry about goal line carries either, so this should work for Gerehart owners.  To top it off, Philly's defense is not known for their run stopping as they like to have smaller, faster guys, which can be pushed around.
Steven Jackson, expect a high scoring game as the Saints are coming to town and much like Dallas, they do not do a good job against the run.  Should get goal line carries, which should put him in the end zone at least once.

Wide Receivers

Roddy White, let us start this year with a guy that showed that people wrote off but ATP still loves.  White, is not Julio Jones, but he still has plenty left in the tank.  Going against New Orleans with Julio on the other side and a determined Matt Ryan.  Feel confident in starting White this week.
Eric Decker, should have a lot of targets as the only real outside receiver on the roster.  In a ppr league, should be good as he will have his share of catches, but much like Jordy last night, probably won't find the end zone.
Julian Edelman, watching the game last night and seeing Rodgers to Nelson so many times, reminds me how quarterbacks love to throw to certain guys and Brady to Edelman is one of those combinations.  Edelman does not find the end zone a ton, but in a ppr league, should be a wr2 start almost every week.
Jeremy Maclin, not enough people talking about Maclin as when he is on the field, he is a difference maker.  Unfortunately for his owners, him being on the field has been a challenge in itself.  No Jackson give Maclin his chance at showing the world what he can do and I think he answers the bell.  Good start against the Jags defense.
Emmanuel Sanders, I expect this guy to have a really big year as he blows the roof off of coverages.  He is too fast and there are too many weapons in Denver.  Start and be happy.

Don't Start

Keenan Allen, tough not to start this guy as you need to go with your best, but Peterson is coming to town and he will be covering Allen most likely, so start at  your own risk.
Mike Wallace, this one is kind of a toss up as we are not sure what the Patriots will do with Revis.  The Patriots do not always lock receivers up with shut down corners, but would stay away just in case.

Sleepers

Steve Smith, this guy is a beast and with Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta out there with him, Smith will have single coverage for the first time in a long time.  Should be good for ppr leagues.

Cody Latimer, if you are really hurting in a deep league, which you shouldn't be as it is the first week, this guy could be a real deep sleeper.  Denver might move Sanders to Welker's spot and move Latimer out wide, which will guarantee him some looks with Manning out there.  Could be a good pick if you are doing a FanDuel type of league for cheap money.

Tight Ends

Sleepers

Dennis Pitta, I have already explained how much I like the offense and despite playing the Bengals.  Pitta is the security blanket for Flacco and with the Smith's manning the outside receiver spots, the middle should like nice and open for Pitta.
Jordan Reed, Reed is a freak athlete that should have a good year if Griffin is back.  It will be tough for teams to cover Reed when you have Garcon and Jackson on the outside.  Don't think the Redskins will be able to run too effectively so they may be throwing a lot of conservative passes to not get Griffin killed, which bodes well for Reed.

Defenses

Patriots, I like these guys and they are going to Miami, which does not play well with the heat, but I am confident that they can shut down the weaponless Miami Dolphin offense.
Eagles, with the Jags coming to town and a revamped Eagle secondary ready to feast on Henne throws, this could be a nice game to start this defense.
Jets, Oakland is making the cross country trek and are starting a rookie at quarterback.  I don't mind Carr, but I will take my chances with Rex and his defense against a rookie.










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