Fantasy Super Bowl Picks for the Lucky Few

Well, we are near the end and if you are one of the lucky few that are still left in fantasy football, congratulations are in order because you are most likely making a few bucks win or lose and you outlasted the majority.  This will be the last edition as the majority of leagues will be done after this weekend.  Hopefully, for the lucky few we will do our best to help.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, Smith should be a conservative pick for people playing in 2 quarterback leagues.  The Chiefs have been putting up a lot of points against bad defenses and they have Indy coming to town.  This game does have playoff implications, so I expect the Chiefs to put up some points and Smith should be good for at least 2 touchdowns and may get you 3.  If you have Russell Wilson, this would be a good option as Wilson does not give you the fantasy points needed to win a title, especially against a pretty good Arizona defense.

Matt Stafford, usually I would not put Stafford on my list as he should always be in the lineup.  Due to some lackluster performances of late, people may have gone sour on him.  I think this is a get back week as the Lions are feeling a lot of pressure and need to win out and Stafford is going to need to get back to form to quiet his doubters down.  With the Giants coming to town, look for this to happen.

Kirk Cousins, run with him again as they have Dallas coming to town and they can score, but they also love to give up points.  Should have a very good day.

Cutler/Foles, I will lump these 2 together as they are playing each other on Sunday night.  Both defenses have not shown up lately and even with Lance Briggs being cleared to play, I see a lot of points being scored.

Desperation

Jason Campbell, playing against a good run defense and a bad pass defense should give Jason the opportunity to be a good option for people that are desperate.  Should be good for at least 2 touchdowns and does a pretty good job of protecting the ball.

Running backs

Leveon Bell, going against a Green Bay defense that is having a hard time stopping anybody, look for the Steelers to play it safe and feed Bell.  Roethlisberger should do well also as play action will be big for the Steelers.

Demarco Murray,  he should be a must start, but I think after all of the fuss that has been made about Garrett and Romo's poor choice of play calling should lead to a huge day for Murray against a pretty bad Washington defense.

Ryan Matthews,  quietly having a very good year as he is already over a 1,000 yards.  At home against Oakland, look for him to have a very good game.  Might not duplicate Charles from last weekend, but should do well.

Desperation

Ray Rice, don't really like Rice, but he is usually able to do okay against bad run defenses, which New England has.  If you have nobody, you can put Rice in as your flex or 3rd running back.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen, should be able to keep up the good play as Oakland is in town.  Start him, enough said.

Kendall Wright, going in to Jacksonville without much to play for, but pride.  This should suit Fitzpatrick as he is playing to stay in the league and the best way to do that is keep throwing to Wright.

Not sure if he will
ever make the list again,
so let's get him a pic
on this blog post.

Pierre Garcon,  might have to keep up with Dallas and passing will be the way to do that.  Cousins is playing for a big contract, so don't look for him to check it to the run.

Desperation

Andre Caldwell,  there are too many guys to cover and he is playing in that slash spot that Manning really loves to throw to, especially around the goal line.

Defense

Detroit,  look for a revved up defense with the coach's job on the line.  They already do a good job stopping the run, but they should do okay against Eli as Victor Cruz will not be in the lineup.  If you are desperate, this could be a pretty good pick up.

Who Are the Candidates to Make a Run in the NFL

We see this every year now, a team that everybody had written off up until now starts to get hot and as we have seen in recent years, makes a run and ultimately either wins or challenges for the Super Bowl.  Sometimes, it takes a little luck as you can ask the Baltimore Ravens last year with maybe the worst defensive play in the history of football or even the Giants with David Tyree's catch, but these teams still come from the dead and put themselves in a position.  Many of them look pretty bad to start only to come on at the right time. 

People like to give credit too often to the coaches, but I also like to point out the fact that usually these teams are very talented and should have never been in the position to almost not make the playoffs.  The Giants come to mind as those teams that won the Super Bowl were loaded and almost didn't make the playoffs. When you have the talent, I tend to give less credit to the coaching.  To put Coughlin in the same breath as Belichick is laughable as the Giants are going to not make the playoffs for the second year in a row after winning a Super Bowl.  Last time I checked, they still have a franchise quarterback, some very good receivers and some talent on defense, which is more than what New England has at the moment and are still looking at a possible first round bye.

Can Flacco and Rice make another
unforeseen run to the Super Bowl?

Unfortunately, I got off topic and I tend to rant when that happens as my Belichick bias comes out in full force.  Who do I like this year to make a run?  Let us start with the defending champs, the Baltimore Ravens.  They have come from the dead and control their own destiny as they will win the AFC North if they win their last 2 games, not that it will be easy with New England coming to town and a season finale in Cincinnati.  Side note, they are a win away from going over their win total, which would make ATP 2 for 2 as KC already blew out their total.  Baltimore's defense is coming together as I thought it would be better than last year's and it now is.  Offensively, they are still figuring things out, but they would be a tough matchup for New England who can not stop the run, which would also keep Brady off the field.  If somebody can knock off Denver as I don't see last year happening again, unless weather plays a part, Baltimore could make another run.

In the NFC, who else but Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  When Rodgers is healthy, there is not a better quarterback in this league.  He is not afraid of the cold or to go on the road and beat a #1 seed, so if anybody is going to beat Seattle, why not the Packers.  They do need to get their defense in check, but Seattle does not put a ton of points on the board, which would work for the Packers.  The biggest road block would be going to New Orleans as Brees at home could be doom for the Packers. 

I still have Seattle coming out of the NFC and anybody can come out of the AFC, but these teams are definitely candidates to make this type of run as they both have in the past.  Both were counted out recently and now both can be facing each other and it would not be that surprising.

Playoff Time Fantasy Focus

For the majority of people, this will be the initial playoff game and for the rest it will be the semifinal weekend, but one thing rings true for all, win and you are in.  Hopefully, many of you did not fall for the Jacob Tamme trap as it was Andre Caldwell who took over the role and made the most of it with 6 catches for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Many of you who started Denver players are going to need to make up for the weak display most of them had, so ATP will do its best to help you out.

Quarterbacks

Nick Foles, if you have not jumped on this bandwagon, I am not sure what you need to see, but with Minnesota on the opposite side this weekend, Foles should deliver for his owners.

Alex Smith, look for Smith to keep rolling as he has shown that he is not just a game manager and if need be, he can put games on his shoulders.  This is a big game for Kansas City and he should be able to throw 2 touchdowns at the minimum.  He is always good for some rushing yards to add some much needed points in the playoffs.

Russell Wilson, I don't like Wilson and Seattle on the road normally, but after a poor showing against their division rival 49ers, this should be a highly motivated team and Wilson should be leading the charge.

Desperation

Kirk Cousins, he has a big couple of weeks ahead of him and with a full week of practice under his belt and a poor pass defense as his opponent in Atlanta, this should be a good potential desperation pick if you have a tough matchup with Cutler or Kaepernick and you may need more out of your quarterback than usual.

Joe Flacco, not much here except that they need this game and Detroit does a great job of stopping the run but not that good against the pass.  Flacco should put this team on his shoulders to help them get in the playoffs.  He could have a big game, but should have at least one or two touchdowns.

Running Backs

Murray should look good
walking in and out of
the stadium tomorrow.

Demarco Murray, he should be able to pile up some yards vs Green Bay, but the biggest issue is as always is Jason Garrett and Tony Romo.  They seem to let him do most of the dirty work and then screw him around the goal line.  If they commit to him around the goal line, he could score 2 or 3 touchdowns on a weekly basis.

Alfred Morris,  Morris should get a good amount of carries with Cousins getting the start.  Playing against Atlanta should also help out fantasy owners as well as Shanahan may give Morris over 20 carries and he should be able to deliver.  Main issue will be if he can get into the end zone as usual.

Chris Ogbonnaya, going against Chicago, enough said.  They have allowed 100 yard rushers for 6 weeks in a row and Cleveland will look to run the ball to keep Chicago off the field.

Desperation

Eddie Lacy, this is mostly due to his injury as you don't know what you will get out of him.  He has a favorable matchup as Denver has not been able to stop anybody as they are missing a lot on their defense.  The Packers have some options so if that ankle flares up, they have other options and May rest Lacy or at the minimum not give him a full workload.

Toby Gerehart, this will be strictly based on Peterson not playing and Toby getting the start and being healthy.  Those area lot of ifs but if they all work in his favor, he could be a big start especially in PPR as he doesn't really have a backup so he will get a lot of work.

Jordan Todman, getting the start in place of MJD, should be worth the start against a bottom 10 run defense in Buffalo. 

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin, should get a lot of looks as Revis should be all over Crabtree, which should focus their passing game plan to Boldin and Davis.

Julian Edelman, should have a lot of targets as Gronk is back on the IR.  Edelman seems to be the only guy that Brady trusts so he should be able to haul in at least 6 passes and maybe throw a score in for good measure.

Desean Jackson/ Riley Cooper, going against Minnesota in the dome should be a welcome change after last week's snowstorm.  Look for Foles to take advantage of a bad pass defense as they look to solidify their lead in the NFC east.

Desperation

Cordarrelle Patterson, I know many people are really high on him after last week's game, but it took a 79 yard touchdown on a screen in really bad weather in the last 2 minutes to make that a legitimate game.  His stat line would have been 4 catches for 62 yards had they been able to play a little defense and then secure the lead.  Worth a shot if you have nothing else going.

Rod Streater, McGloin seems to like throwing to him so if you have an empty slot or just want to take a chance as you are playing against the best team and need a miracle, give Streater a look.

I am Willing to Put Money on the Line that Denver Will not Win the Super Bowl

This sounds like an obvious reaction to last night's game, but in reality last night just solidified my feelings that I have had for some time.  It is more of a combination of things that I see, but it all adds up to Denver having a good season ending earlier than people expect. 

Most of this can be traced to weather and defense.  This is not one of those articles talking about Peyton not being able to play in the cold because that is not what it is.  I don't think Manning is as bad as people say in the cold, it is hard to find quarterbacks that are very good in the cold, period.  This article is not against Peyton as you need a team to win in the playoffs not one guy. He will still have some good games, but eventually he will need to play in the weather.  One way or the other, home field is going through Denver, New England or Cincinnati, all pretty cold place to play in January. In these situations, you need to have a good defense and a solid run game as the quarterback is somewhat voided as it is not easy to get comfortable in this weather.  In 2007, during Brady's magical year, you only have to look at the AFC championship against San Diego where it took the defense of New England to hold the Chargers to 4 field goals against Rivers, who was playing on a torn ACL.  Brady threw 3 picks that game and the leading receiver was Kevin Faulk, which means they were throwing very short passes that game.  They also got 125 yards out of Laurence Maroney, giving them good time possession as well.  Without a running game and a stout defense,  a torn ACL in the opposing quarterback doesn't hurt, the Patriots could have been 17-1 instead of 18-1.

This may be the best time to see Peyton do
some real work come January.

One thing we know for sure is that Denver's defense will not win them a game, which is why it is laughable to me that Jack Del Rio is being talked about as a potential head coach again.  He basically was given a job that he needs to hold teams to under 20 points on occasion and he can't even do that.  He should know the opposing teams game plans by now, they will try and run the ball to keep it away from Manning.  In the playoffs, it always gets tougher and all of the teams that are in the running to make the playoffs can beat this Denver team, especially when weather comes in to play as it is the great equalizer.  No quarterback is great in cold weather, they might have a good game here or there, but none of them exceed what they do on the reg.  Defenses can come at you more aggressively as the timing routes get messed up, leaving the quarterback to make tougher throws that take longer than usual.  Defenses can take away the short game and focus on the run and force Peyton to try to beat you with longer throws, which are riskier and not the way of the NFL anymore. 

They have a decent running game, but like an article posted earlier this year on ATP, losing Ryan Clady after losing Dan Koppen will definitely hurt them come playoff time.

http://allthingspigskin.blogspot.com/2013/09/not-enough-people-talking-about-bigger.html

 You only need to look to last night in a crucial point of the game, somebody coming through and getting to Peyton's arm leading to the pick that pretty much ended the game.  People may point to Welker not being in the lineup, but anybody who is going to complain about Andre Caldwell's stat line of 6 catches for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns after moving positions in a 3 day practice week does not really know football.

If they can get to the Super Bowl, then all bets would not be off as for the first time, the Super Bowl may be played in bad weather as it will be in New York City in February.  I don't think they get that far and this is probably the best chance a team like Cincinnati has of winning as their lack of an explosive passing game may not be exposed with all of the bad weather cities in the running of the playoff scene.  As I stated in the title, feel free to offer me some wagers as I will take any that I can afford.

Time to Put Up Or Shut Up: Fantasy Focus

There are no more excuses as the final week of the fantasy season is here.  ATP was on point last week as Carson Palmer, Alex Smith and Josh McCown all performed well as predicted from the QB position.  The RB position was just as good as Ben Tate came out of his scoring drought by scoring 3 times.  Spiller and Jackson both did well for Buffalo and hopefully you listened and stayed away from Rainey and Lacey as we suggested.  Our wide receiver picks did okay as Alshon Jeffrey showed why he was a pre-season sleeper for ATP with over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Our only true miss was connected as the Green Bay receivers didn't stand a chance with Matt Flynn playing the way he did.  Hopefully, we will duplicate last week's performance.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, expect Mr. Smith to keep his streak of good games going as the Chiefs will be facing the Redskins, who have a hard time stopping anybody.  Andy Reid has this passing offense moving in the right direction and Alex May get you some points running the ball as well.  This is a very good option this week.

Matt Ryan, despite Atlanta's recent woes, Ryan has been doing okay on a personal level and he finally took advantage of having Roddy White back as he hit him up for 143 yards.  Playing against Green Bay this week, expect more of the same as he should throw for a few touchdowns.

Phillip Rivers, Rivers needs to get back on track to keep San Diego in the mix and playing against the Giants may be just what he needs.  This is a big game and they should get back to their identity, which is throwing the ball.  This is as good a time as any to start Rivers despite the Giants recent play, which was not as awful as it was at the beginning of the season.

Carson Palmer, should keep his recent success going as they will play St. Louis, who does pretty good against the run and not as good against the pass.  Arizona is fighting for its playoff life and they need this win.  Look for them to lean on Palmer.

Stay Away

Colin Kaepernick,  I know that they are playing in San Francisco this week, but he does not have a great history against Seattle and more important the 49ers don't necessarily need him to win.  If Seattle has a weakness on defense, besides PED's, it is their run defense.  Expect the 49ers to keep their passes short and focus on the rung game.  The only silver lining here is if Colin K can run the ball, which is a possibility, but I wouldn't want to trust that in such a big week.

Running Backs

Ben Tate looking to make owners
 happy they handicapped Foster
this season.

Ben Tate, now that he showed that he is the man again, he should get plenty of opportunity tonight against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I wouldn't expect 3 touchdowns as the Jags have a better run defense than New England, but he should do okay and most likely find the end zone at least once.

Bobby Rainey, should be back in the mix as Tampa will look to run the ball against Buffalo this week.  Had a few off weeks against some good defenses, but he is a decent back in an offense that wants to run the ball.

Demarco Murray, although he scored 3 touchdowns last week, he did not particularly run well.  He was able to get a lot of goal line looks that should hopefully stay the trend for his fantasy owners.  Playing against Chicago on Monday night in a game with playoff inclinations should be a good fit.  Chicago has a bad defense and they are going to have to worry more about the pass game, which should open up running lanes for Murray.

Desperation

Monte Ball, playing against the Titans this week and Moreno still a bit injured should give Ball plenty of opportunity, especially after a big performance last week.  In a pinch, Ball could be a big pickup to help you get in the playoffs.

Stay Away

MJD, I don't love Jones Drew as his main point threat is by scoring a touchdown as Houston's defense, will look to avenge their loss to the Jags a couple of weeks ago.  I don't see many yards, so if you have a better option, use it.  If not, you better hope he scores once or twice.

Wide Receivers

Roddy White, why not go 3 weeks in a row with White.  He is playing a weak pass defense and with a banged up Gonzales, he is the primary threat and still capable of owning that title.  Go long with White.

Desean Jackson, is usually a must start, but I think that he will be a great start this week.  Detroit is good against the run, which will force a lot more throws, especially short ones to Jackson.  These will act as their first and second down run plays.

Desperation

Mike Wallace,  if you don't have any good options, Wallace may be your guy.  He has been doing fairly well the last few weeks as the Dolphins have actually used Wallace for what he is, a deep threat.  Even if Ike Taylor covers him, it should not be much of an issue as he has had major issues with top receivers as of late and look for the Dolphins to try and exploit that.

Defense

Houston, going against the Jags, that have been doing well as of late, they look to avenge their pitiful loss from a few weeks ago.  The Jags are not explosive, so look for Wade Phillips to do whatever he can to keep his job.  He needs his defense to have  a performance that they were accustomed to before this season.

Gambler's Corner for Week 13

Hoping to continue our good fortune from last week, where we posted a 2-1 record, our only miss was thinking that Andrew Luck and company would be able to keep winning games that nobody else thought they could, but that did not hold true and they got swamped at Arizona.  Now it is on to this week and let us see if we can win some money in time for Cyber Monday.

Chicago (PK) over Minnesota, the game is in Minnesota and I know that the Bears are not going to be able to stop Adrian Peterson today, but I am not sure that the Vikings will be able to stop Josh McCown and company.  Not sure the Vikings will be able to keep up with the points that the Bears should be able to put up today, but I do know that this should be a high scoring game as well.  Right now it is set at 49, which if I had to choose I would go over, but I would rather tease it to 43 and have the Bears get 6 as well.

Jacksonville (+7) @ Cleveland, I am riding the Jags for the second straight week as their defense has been showing up as of late and Cleveland does not have enough of an offense to be giving anybody 7 points, similar to Houston last week.    I think Cleveland will probably win a close one here, but not by more than 7.

Brady is starting to hit his stride.
Watch out NFL!

New England (-7.5) @ Houston, this is a lot of points against a team that has as much talent as Houston, but they have no heart at this point and New England is really starting to click on offense.  Belichick will have something ready for Case Keenum as he usually does a pretty good job when he has enough tape on these young quarterbacks and this defense is starting to turn into a bend but don't break that we saw in the early 2000's.  If you want to tease, it should be a can't miss, because this game should not be close.