The Onside Kick is Overrated!

Okay, this is now two weeks in a row where coaches with timeouts available chose to go with an onside kick instead of the smarter move of kicking it deep.  For the record, an onside kick is a great tool when used correctly and at the right time.  Desperate times mean desperate measures and an onside kick is more than a reasonable option.  I just think that it is being done in the wrong situations, especially in last week's case.

In the Baltimore game versus Jacksonville, with a 2 minute warning and 2 timeouts left down by 2. Now every one in the world knows they are going to run it 3 times in a row and make them use their timeouts.  The last thing that anybody was expecting was Jack Del Rio to put the ball in the hands of the Blaine Gabbert.  So instead of sending them back to the 20, which Raven kicker Billy Cundiff is more than capable of, was the best option in my mind.  As we saw, the Ravens had a nice onside kick that didn't make it ten yards and the Jaguars only needed a couple of yards to get into field goal range, which gave them a 5 point lead and now forced the Ravens inept offense to have to score a touchdown the length of the field.  To say the least, it didn't work out well.  So, John Harbaugh chose to put the ball in the hands of his inept offense as opposed to his defense, which is op ranked against a hapless offense.  Most people would choose the opposite in my opinion.

Last night, I can agree a little bit more with the Patriots choosing to go with the onside kick, but I still think it was the wrong option.  In this case, I don't think Belichick trusted his defense to stop the Steeler offense, but at the minimum go with a better onside kick as that was a terrible attempt.  With the amount of time that was left on the clock, I think you need to show faith in your defense and try to get the ball back in decent field position when a touchdown is needed.  I just feel that the onside kick is too much of a risk in these situations when there are timeouts available and you have a defense that is good enough to stop most teams, which I feel the Patriots are.  The Steelers were not going to spread it out on first and second down, it would either of been a run or play action, which the Patriots are capable of stopping.  The onside kick option looks especially bad when a statistic shows up on a board stating that the Patriots have not had a successful onside kick since 1994.

In my opinion, let us keep the onside kick as an option to be used as a situational surprise earlier in the game or as a desperate measure at the end of the game.  When you have a capable defense and timeouts available, give your defense a shot.

Fantasy Options for Week 7

We are going to start out with some free agent pick up guys in most leagues as opposed to the usual format of must start guys and the first one we have is Bernard Scott.  Filling in for Cedric Benson and going against Seattle, this guy should be good for some points, but I do wonder if they will give him the goal line carries.  Out of the gambles, this guy is closest to a must start, especially in a PPR league.

Next gamble will be Reggie Bush, I know he is going against the Giants in New York, but he has looked good when he has had room to run and he will get a lot of touches to keep the pressure off Matt Moore.

Antonio Brown and Deion Branch, I like these guys, especially in PPR leagues where there will be a lot of passing in the New England vs Pittsburgh game.  I wouldn't count on either of them scoring, but 7 catches for 70 yards seems about right.

Must Start

Dare I say Chris Johnson for the 4th time this year and he is only given us maybe one good game.  I do dare it as Tennessee had a week off to figure out their issues and they know they need this game.  Chris Johnson is still a good running back and he needs to bring his A game today.

Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks, Nicks is a must start every week but I am just accentuating it because Vontae Davis is out and they are going to have a hard time stopping these guys without him.

Demarco Murray, not because he had such a great game last week, but the fact that they are playing the Philadelphia Feebles when it comes to run defense.  Until they show me they can stop the run, I will keep saying start the opposing running back.

Don't Start

Peyton Hillis, I just don't know where this guy's head is at and until Colt McCoy can start scaring people with his arm, defenses will be focusing on Hillis.  This week especially since the 49ers have done a good job of stopping runners for the most part.

Marshawn Lynch,  he is going against a stingy Bengal defense, especially against the run.

Please don' start Tim Tebow.  People, I know it is a great story, but eventually his skills will come to show his true colors.  Great guy and I am rooting for him, but the first 55 minutes of last week are truer than the last 5.

Gambler's Corner Roundup

It was a pretty disheartening week last time around. Two big factors were the Packers letting off the gas with a 16 point lead, to only end up winning by 6 and Baltimore's total disfunction.  That is a big reason I never think of Baltimore as a Super Bowl team.  They are a good team, but not one that is going to win the big game any time soon.
On to this week where hopefully better results lie.  The first pick of the week is going to be the NE Patriots giving 3 at Pittsburgh.  I know it sounds kind of crazy, but NE matches up really good with these guys and seem to have their number.  The Steelers have the number one defense, but they have played some weak competition and I don't think they slow down Brady and company.  I think the Patriot defense is beginning to come around as well, which could mean big trouble for the rest of the league.
My next pick is another road warrior as I like Detroit to go into Denver and beat Tebowmania by more than the 3 that they are given.  I think this is a huge game for Detroit and they need to prove that they are not slowing down.  Tim Tebow will have a tough time against this Detroit front and it will be a long day for him.  I like him as a person, but he has a long way to go before I think he can cut it at this level.
My last pick will be a three team tease as after taking off 9 points for each game, you can have Houston beating the Jags, the Giants beating Miami and San Fransisco beating the Browns to cover.  No spread, it will be an even pick for all 3 games with the tease.  Outside of upsets, you should be good with this threesome.  The Giants will be weary after bombing vs Seattle at home, so coming off a bye they will be ready for Miami and it will not be a let down.  Good luck and go make some Keash!

Suicide picks for week 8

Unfortunately, I am not alive to in my own pool, but I am going to still give out my picks as that is what a good blogger should do.  I am not going to complain about the putrid play of Baltimore on Monday night vs the Jags, or the horrible unnecessary roughness call that basically gave the Jags a 2 score lead, or the horrible call to kick an onside kick, when they could have kicked it deep and got the ball back with decent field position down 2.  I am not going to complain about it.
Anyway, there are a few picks to choose from this week.  If you are in a second chance pool, the obvious picks are the Saints against St. Louis or the Ravens at home vs the Arizona Cardinals.  Those are both pretty safe as the Ravens are great at home and the Saints are clicking on all cylinders.  If you are in a deeper pool, I like the Titans to get off this rough patch vs the Colts, who are looking to win the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.  If Chris Johnson is ever going to get going this season, this would most certainly be the week to do it as the Colts never stop the run that well.
I also like the Houston Texans to beat the Jags at home.  Usually, I don't trust the Texans, but they are looking pretty good now that Arian Foster is back.  Another reason, the Jags can't pull off 2 big wins in a row.
Another one for the road, is the New York Giants to beat the Dolphins pretty handily as the Dolphins can't score with them and they are in New York, with them coming off a bye.  These are all pretty good picks, but as you know anything can happen and you need your team to show up, so good luck to all that are still alive.

Gambler's Corner Roundup for week 7

The last few weeks have been pretty good for ATP in this section.  We have been 2-1 the last 2 weeks and 3-0 looked pretty good until the Steelers offense crumbled as they could score no second half points.  Okay, on to the picks to see if we can keep it up and keep me making people some money.

First pick of the week is pretty simple.  Take Green Bay giving 9 points as they are going against a rookie quarterback and we already have established that there are no receivers in Minnesota, so be ready for the Pack to put  8 in the box to stop AP until Christian Ponder is able to move the ball with his arm.

My second pick of the week is the Baltimore Ravens, who are giving 8 points at Jacksonville.  I just don't think that the Jacksonville offense will put up more than 10 points, which means the Ravens will only need to score about 20, which should be doable unless there is a let down.  Don't see that happening with Ray Lewis running the show.

Last pick of the week is scary.  I was going to go with the Steelers as they are giving around 4 depending upon who you are using, but my pick will be the Chicago Bears to cover the 1.5 points they are giving to Tampa in London.  Tampa is coming off a huge win over New Orleans last week and they are flying to London.  They are a young team that I don't think will be able to match up with the more veteran Bears, who will be able to handle the trip.  Those are the 3 for the week and let's hope the trend continues or maybe even a 3-0 this week.

Suicide picks for week 7

Let's knock on wood as ATP has been on point so far this year with our suicide picks.  This week, the obvious picks for those that are in second chance pools would be the Green Bay Packers as they are going to be playing the Minnesota Vikings with Christian Ponder making his first start as a rookie quarterback.  Good luck going against that defense, who in Clay Matthews' eyes have not even been playing good football yet.  The other obvious pick is the New Orleans Saints going against Indy at home.  Both are sure as wins can get, but as we have seen anything can happen.  I do feel safe with those.

Don't let me down Ray!

The other supposed sure win and the team that everybody is taking because they have already used Green Bay and New Orleans are the Dallas Cowboys.  They are playing the Rams at home, who are winless.  As of right now, they are not even sure if Sam Bradford will play and it seems at the moment, he will not and AJ Feeley will fill in.  Man would I love to see a St. Louis win this week.  I am not saying to take St. Louis or anything, but if I have learned anything from the Cowboys, it is not to put your suicide hopes on them.  I will stay away from this one.

My next pick will be the Baltimore Ravens who are playing the Jaguars this week.  I know waiting until Monday night is the worst, but a good pick is a good pick.  I don't see the Jaguars scoring more than 10 in this game and even when they play terrible, the Ravens should be able to pick up at least 17 against these guys.  Nuff said!

Last pick of the week will be the Oakland Raiders.  I was higher on them earlier in the week, but I don't know what is going on yet with Carson Palmer practicing for 3 days and starting on Sunday.  I would still take the Raiders, but I have downgraded to my gamble pick of the week but the money has pushed them from a 3.5 pt favorite to a 6 pt, so Vegas seems to like them as well.

The Raiders and Bengals Both Make a Great Move! Wait What?

I know I am little bit late to this party but I did want to chime in as I wanted to post this a couple of days back.  The title of this blog really says it all.  I never in a million years that I would say that about either of the organizations, but to say it about both in the same sentence.  It is just preposterous!

I owe an apology to Mike Brown as he worked this one out perfectly as the Bengals could get 2 first round draft picks, which is more than what he would have got had he tried in the offseason.  Good for him.  I don't think they will make the playoffs this year, but things are looking up as he has a good rookie connection going for years to come.  Not sold on Andy Dalton getting them a ring, but I think Cincinnati will be happy to be a relevant team for years to come, which is a big plus for them.

The Raiders did what they had to do here as they have not been in contention since their Super Bowl appearance in the 2002 season.  I like what they did regardless of how Carson Palmer does.  He might do alright or he might do miserably, but I agree that the Raiders had to pull the trigger on Palmer.  They could not rely on Kyle Boller to get them into the playoffs.  Good luck to both, but I would put my money on the Raiders making a wild card before the Bengals.

Fantasy Options for Week 6

ATP has been doing well in the fantasy roundup and even the gambles have done fairly well.  I like this week and I feel fairly confident in this week's picks.  Mind you, there are certain guys that are obvious so  I don't mention them as a guy like Cam Newton is fast becoming.  I like him this week, in case you were wondering.

Must Start


Tony Romo and his receiving options, I really like this group this week, so if you have any of them, which includes Witten, Austin and Bryant start them quickly.  If Romo has 2 touchdowns, I will be surprised, I expect at least 3.  Not a huge Felix Jones fan, because of his lack of goal line carries.  Start him for a ppr league though.

Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw, I am going back to these guys this week as I expect a lot of points in this game versus the Bills.  You can go deeper on the receiver depth chart if you are desperate or play in a 10 or 12 team league.  On the flip side, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week and
Fred Jackson is a must start, even though I don't love him this week.  Jackson pretty much scores at least once a game and he gets yards rushing and receiving.  Tough not to start, when 15 points is a bad game for this guy.

Daniel Thomas,  although I need to root against him as the Jets are my suicide pick, this guy should have a big game as Matt Moore is starting for the first time in a while.  I am really scared of this pick even though they are at home.

I would have a Redskins running back here as I do every week against Philly, but much like the Patriots and my comment from last week, it is tough to get behind one guy.  As a team, I like them to rush well, so I will leave it up to you if you want to start Torrain or Hightower.

Can't Start


Frank Gore,  I think that the Lions will key Gore this week as this is a big game for them.  Harbaugh will want to run him a lot, but I think Suh and company will hold their own at home.

Maurice Jones-Drew,  there are no receiving options and Gabbert is getting a tough rap because of that, but I think he will be fine.  The Steelers are geared up for MJD and I think they will need to be shown differently before they game plan differently.

Mendenhall, I am not feeling him today as there are probably better options out there at the moment.  He might get in the end zone but I think the Jaguars have done a fairly decent job stopping runners.

Gambles

Adrian Peterson, much like McFadden last week, most people will be resigned to start him as he is a top pick, but I don't like him this week.  Until McNaab starts beating people on his own, defenses will gear up to stop him and without any real passing threat, I see mediocre numbers for AP tonight.

Arian Foster,  I like him better than AP, but the Ravens don't have to worry about Andre Johnson this week so they can focus on Foster.

AJ Green,  I actually like this guy as a starter, I am just not ready to make him a must start, but he is fast becoming one.  He is becoming the go to guy for Dalton, who is not afraid to just throw it up around the goal line.  Expect at least a touchdown for this guy.

Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson,  yes I said these guys going into Green Bay as gamble starts.  Either their defense can't hold Aaron Rodgers and company out of the red zone, which will force a lot of throwing or the Rams coming off a bye, show that they aren't as bad as their current 0-4 record shows.  I would love to see an upset that being said as this would be huge for my suicide picks.  Go Rams!

Gambler's Corner Roundup for week 6

Well if you listened to me last week, you made some money as I went 2-1 and in my one loss, Minnesota took Arizona to the woodshed.  I like Minnesota and I think I was mad at them from the previous week when they lost to KC.  Now that I know they can win, I will be more careful going against them.

On to this week.  I have to be honest I am not crazy about this week.  If you were smart enough to get in on Philly earlier in the week, I would feel better about it, but I will still take Philly giving 3, going to Washington.  It sounds crazy, but they need this win in a bad way.  The line was around 1 or 2 and I even saw them as an underdog by half a point earlier in the week, which I would have felt much better about.  That being said, the Eagles had a players only meeting and I hope they realize how big this game is.  It could be very likely, that if they pull out a win they could be 1.5 games back of the Redskins, a game back of the Giants and a half game behind the Cowboys as the Giants and Cowboys could very easily lose today.

I usually don't like to give 12.5 points, but I am going to have to see Blaine Gabbert beat somebody with his arm as I know Pitt is geared up to stop MJD this week.  Pitt is back on stride offensively and even though I like the Jaguars defense as they don't give up much, I wouldn't be surprised to see a defensive touchdown from the Steelers as well to help cover.

In the last game, I like the Ravens to beat the Texans and cover the 7 points.  The Texans are without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, their biggest playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Just too much to handle for the Schaub, Foster and company as this defense is hitting its stride.

Suicide picks for week 6

Last week was a tough week, which ATP knew was coming and many pools were decimated by the all time great suicide killers, the NY Giants.  There is a reason I don't trust them and they showed us last week.  If you are still alive, we congratulate you.  Now, it is going to get down to the nitty gritty.

Unfortunately for me, I have used Green Bay and Pittsburgh as those are the obvious choices of the week.  So I am praying for an upset on both accounts as there are only 8 people left in my pool and I know that 4 of them have GB left.  Let's go Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams.  I am praying to the suicide pool Gods to have the Rams do what they did a few years back and as a friend of mine can attest, I said it would happen.  The Saints were undefeated after at least 5 or 6 weeks going against the winless Rams and he took the Saints above my advice because I knew it was their week and sure enough the winless were winless no more.  I don't think that will happen this time around as Green Bay is a very good team and the Saints were not in my opinion and I am pretty sure they failed to make the playoffs that year.  Pittsburgh, is a Jekyll and Hyde team, but they will turn it around and they know they need to win this game, but a guy can hope can't he.

Praying to the Suicide Pool
Gods to let the Sanchize get me a Win!

So, if you are in the same boat as me and you need to pick somebody who is not obvious, I am going to go with dare I say it, the NY Jets.  They are at home going against a winless Miami team who is starting a new quarterback as Chad Henne is out for the year.  I could see this upset happening more so than the Rams beating the Packers, but this is the life of a suicide pool participant.

It may sound strange to say it, but as a gamble pick, I am going to take the Philadelphia Eagles to go into Washington and get a win.  I know they are an underdog but they need this win.  It is tough as the Redskins are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to figure out how to win this week.  I am going with my gut and say that the Eagles pull it off.

Real Teams and Fake Teams

After five weeks, it seems there are always pretenders and teams that come back to life.  I have hit on a few, like the Denver Broncos a couple of years ago when they started 6-0 and the Giants as well as they started 5-0, only to miss the playoffs that year.  I did think the Chicago Bears were pretenders last year, but they were able to win the NFC North and make it to the NFC Championship as well, so I missed on that one.  So this year, I am going to name who I think is faking it and who I think is real.

First pretender is going to be the Cincinnati Bengals.  They are a good story and I think they have a solid defense, but they have yet to play the Ravens and the Steelers and have only been able to barely beat some bad teams.  They are 3-2 and I can see them finishing with maybe 8 wins and will miss the playoffs.

Pennsylvania will be happy to know that both of their teams will be able to turn it around as they have the talent and the coaching staff to do it.  If I had to put my money on one, I would say the Steelers are the better bet as Roethlisberger has a better chance of making it through the season as opposed to Vick.  I see Big Ben and the Steelers fighting to get to the Wild Card due to its bad start.  The Eagles might have to fight really hard and start cleaning up the NFC East as they might have to win it to make the playoffs.

Detroit Lions are for real, which is pretty evident to most at this point.  Not much needs to be said about this as they will be able to get the 5 seed as I don't see them beating out the Green Bay Packers for the division.

The Buffalo Bills are a good team, but I see them start to lose more than win as the season gets moving along, especially with the weather coming early in Buffalo, which will allow defenses to key on Fred Jackson and the running game a bit more.  The Bills might be able to get 9 or 10 wins, which might be enough to fight for the last wild card spot especially if the Jets can't beat them.  Speaking of the Jets, they have turned it on towards the end the last 2 years to make the playoffs and make a run in them as well.  I can see them making the last wild card as it will be a fight between the Steelers, Bills, Jets and maybe the Raiders.

The Washington Redskins, these guys are an enigma as they have Rex Grossman leading the way, but have only lost one game and that was a game that could have easily been won.  I am going to say that they are going to fight the good fight and could make a wild card or even win the division by default as the NFC East loves to give games away to each other and it could be a four way brawl for the crown.  I do like this defense, so it should be interesting.

The San Francisco 49ers, I think by default they will win the division.  They are a solid team that has a great coach in Jim Harbaugh, but if they make the second round of the playoffs, that will be a great ending to their season.  I look for them to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

That is what I have so far and there are other teams to analyze, but I will stick with these as they are the teams that could be in contention or look good right now at the minimum.

Gambler's Corner Roundup for week 5

It is been fairly 50-50 here at ATP, with these picks so tread with caution as you would be losing with the juice.  Unless you did a three team tease last week with my picks, then you would have covered, which is what I usually do.

I have 2 picks this week that are battles of futility.  In the first game, I like Kansas City getting 2.5 points to go into Indy and come out with an outright win.  I think the Chiefs realize this is a game they need to win and want to keep the momentum going.  Indy has had some key injuries that will cause more problems than Painter can handle.  I expect it to be fairly low scoring, so if you want to tease the 39 point under, feel free to do that.

The next game I like is Arizona to go into Minnesota and cover getting 3 points.  Minnesota is going to have to show me they can win, before making them a 3 point favorite.  When your red zone target is Michael Jenkins, you don't really have the right to be a 3 point favorite even if you are at home.

My surprise special of the week is to take Carolina getting 7 points as even though I like New Orleans in the suicide pool, I realize that is a game that Carolina can win and definitely cover at home.  New Orleans is going to put a lot of pressure on Carolina, but nobody has seemed to be getting to him so far so I will cover my ass and take the Panthers to cover.

Fantasy Options for Week 5

I guess the first thing ATP must acknowledge is that Cam Newton is a fantasy must start in a 2 quarterback league, but you can still bench depending on who is your other quarterback in a 1 qb league.  The guy is just throwing for a ton of yards, which I never thought would happen, but he is running like I thought he would.  You might as well drop Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and hope to pick them up if Newton gets hurt.  He is the only guy touching the ball inside the 3 yard line it seems.  So if you start Newton, you have to start Steve Smith, who is having a great season as he is able to get open during the defensive breakdowns caused by Newton scrambling.

Must Start

Fred Jackson, this guy is an absolute stud for the time being.  We will see if this offense can handle the weather that will be coming to Buffalo some time soon.  The Eagles have a ton of problems to figure out on defense and since they didn't realize where they were weak for the last few years (linebacker), this will not be solved this weekend.  Jackson should do especially well in ppr leagues as he is a receiving threat as well.

The Giant offense, which means Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw should all get starts  this week as the Seattle Seachickens are in town and they play especially bad on the road.  Coughlin should have this team ready as he should know that he can't let these gimme wins go.  Eli in a 2 quarterback league is a must, it is dependent upon the situation in a one quarterback league.  

Not sure if everybody is picking up on what is going on in New Orleans, but Jimmy Graham it seems is maybe the best fantasy tight end besides maybe Rob Gronkowski.  He might be the most consistent though and much like Gronkowski, a tough matchup with so many other offensive weapons alongside him.

Don't Start

Ryan Fitzpatrick,  I think that Mr. Fitzpatrick will begin to come back to earth and they should stick to the run.  This defense will be gunning for the Bills in this game and since they can't stop the run, they are going to do their best to stop the pass.  I am not completely confident in this pick, but the Eagles need to get it going and this could be the week.

Brandon Lloyd, the San Diego Chargers are going to game plan to keep Mr. Lloyd out of the game, especially after a big last week.  He is not a top option, but desperate owners might have an itch to put him in after not getting much yet.

Gambles

Wes Welker has a tough
test this week

Darren McFadden,  in my opinion the best fantasy running back in football right now, unless Arian Foster gets it going.  They love to give him the ball on the ground and in the air.  They are committed to this guy and he will get his touches one way or the other.  That being said, I don't think many people will bench him, but I don't think he will do much against a stingy Houston defense.

Wes Welker, same thing can be said about this guy.  Except for ppr leagues, this could be a tough start as the Jets know how to disrupt the New England offense and I think if there is one guy they will try and stop it will be Welker.

If it wasn't for Stevan Ridley making some waves in New England, I could make a case to finally start Benjarvus Green-Ellis as they will be able to run on the Jets.  Due to Ridley stealing carries, I would advise against it.

Nate Washington, for deep leagues this guy is a good gamble.  Hasselbeck is playing as good as he ever has and he needs to throw the ball to somebody.  Washington will be geared up to play vs his old team and the Steelers will try to stop Chris Johnson as they have uncharacteristically not stopped any big name rushers this season.  No James Harrison for this vinyl curtain defense, which will ease the pressure coming off the edge for Hasselbeck.  

I hope this helps and I hope all of your fantasy league dreams come true.

Mike Martz Changing it Up Again

Has anybody noticed what the Chicago Bears have been doing with Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator.  They are pretty much one of the only teams out there that have been lining up with a fullback and tailback and running right at defenses.  It might seem strange, but with defenses evolving to be able to cover the spread offenses as well as more athletic quarterbacks, they have become more susceptible to stopping the boring old run game of the 1980's.  I have never been a huge fan of Martz, as I feel he has too much ego, but this is pretty impressive especially since he was the offensive coordinator of the greatest show on turf.  This makes sense to some degree as they don't have the receivers to run that offense and this defense is pretty solid.

The biggest problem I find with this approach is that they are accepting mediocrity as this is pretty much what the Falcons did minus the fullback.  This type of team can make the playoffs, but can not hang with the many explosive offenses.   So as much as I can appreciate watching Martz evolve as he ages, he has a solid team that was just in the NFC championship last season.  Right now it seems that the Chicago coaches are happy protecting their jobs and are happy to be in the pack as opposed to finding a way to get over the hump and do some real damage.  It is okay for a team like the Raiders to do this as a 9 or 10 win season and maybe even a playoff game would be akin to winning the Super Bowl for their fans, but the Bears have smelled some success and should be thinking bigger.

Suicide picks for week 5

We are now getting down to the nitty-gritty as this week is the first true challenge of the year where we can not coast on easy picks.  This is where ATP must earn its money. Hopefully, most people stayed away from Buffalo last week as they were obviously not ready to jump into the suicide pick limelight.
The first pick, which may seem obvious considering what the other choices are is the New York Giants.  Being at home, makes me a feel a little bit better because I haven't trusted the Giants since 2008 as a suicide pick.  They are playing Seattle, who has never been good on the road and they are a big favorite. We all need to roll with the Giants as the other options are not good.
My second option will be the New Orleans Saints to win a tough one at Carolina.  Don't like this one as much as the Saints are notorious to play down to their opponents.  My thought process is that Gregg Williams will dial up a lot of crazy blitzes for Cam Newton to handle.  That being said, New Orleans is not a defensive juggernaut and I could see Cam doing his thing vs this defense as well.  I am just hoping Brees will put up enough points to offset him.
My risky pick, as I will only do one this week is the San Diego Chargers going into Denver.  Another team that you never know what you will get.  The three teams the Chargers have beat are a combined
1-11.  That being said, they have a strong defense and Philip Rivers so I will go with these guys this week.  I know New England is a big favorite, but you might as well toss a coin in that game as it might be the biggest NFL rivalry at the moment.  I stay away from that one.

Jason Garrett Being Let Off the Hook!

Don't get me wrong, Tony Romo deserves some blame for this game.  There were a couple of throws, that I am sure that he would like to get back.  He also needs to answer when the opposing team begins to put up some points, as was not the case on Sunday vs the Lions in their 34-30 loss.  There is a case to be made that all of this is being put on his shoulders when it is fairly obvious that had they come out running a bit more in the second half with a 27-3 lead that this might not have been the result.  Jason Garrett did not have  to come out firing on all cylinders, but because he is trying to become some offensive guru as he was once thought of, he was trying to pour it on instead of just winning the game.
The Cowboys were able to move the ball pretty easily in the first half of this game, either by running or passing.  If you are a head coach that is secure in himself, going against a good offensive team like the Detroit Lions with a big lead, you can at least attempt to run the ball a little bit to start the second half.  You were successful in the first, why not try in the second.  Take this pressure off of Tony Romo to sling it around if it is not needed, while at the same time begin to take off some clock.  You do have Rob Ryan and  a very good defense on the other side of the ball that has been doing fairly well on the day.  I am not stating that they should have abandoned the pass, but they could have run it a little bit on those early drives.  I don't remember many runs as I was watching this pathetic display unfold.
Some of the Lions have been quoted as saying that the Cowboys came out in the second half relaxed, thinking that the game was over, another reflection on the coach.  I stand by what I had said previously about Jason Garrett, he is an alright coach that is not ready to get a team to the promised land.  That being said they will probably end up around 10-6 and maybe even in the playoffs.  This is not saying much as they have loads of talent on the field and in the coaching box.

Gambler's Corner Roundup for week 4

I am going to stay away from gimmicks this week, even though the theory I presented last week is being performed at the moment.  Teams are scoring a lot more and you can see that from the over/under lines.  That being said, I am moving on from that and go with a couple of straight up bets.

The first game that I am picking is Tennessee going into Cleveland and picking up a win.  They are now one point favorites after being an underdog for much of the week.  This means that the money agrees with me as many people realize that Tennessee is a better team.  Cleveland's defense is not good enough to match Colt McCoy's conservative style.  Chris Johnson has to get moving in this game and look for the Titans to stop Hillis and force McCoy to beat them.

My second game is Minnesota going into Kansas City and getting their first win.  They need to win by 3 and I think that will happen this week.  I expect to see a hungry Jared Allen wreak havoc on the defensive side and a heavy load of Adrian Peterson throughout the game.  Donovan has to keep his mistakes to a minimum and they should be able to cover the spread.

Those are my 2 for the week and a risky third game that I will not go into too much is picking Atlanta as a 5 point favorite going into Seattle.  Let's leave it at this, Seattle does not score and Atlanta needs to pick it up this week,  I expect them to put up over 24 points which should be enough to cover against this Seattle offense.

Fantasy Options for Week 4

Tough calls last week as Chris Johnson still hasn't produced.  That being said, he is the first guy I am pushing this week as without Kenny Britt, he will most likely be facing a scheme that is built to stop him.  I am still going to say he is coming out and having a big week.  Eventually, he will start to play good and you might as well ride him as will I in this blog.  Dare I say that Matt Stafford and Ryan Fitzpatrick should be every week starters at this point.

Must Start
Expect big things from Adrian Peterson as they have lost a lot of leads in the second half as they are not giving this guy the ball enough.  This week will be different and look for AP to lead the way.

Darren McFadden, sorry Patriot fans, but until this defense gets used to this new 4-3 look, I will pick the running back against them.  Especially, a team like Oakland that loves to run the ball and is built for it as well.  Never mind the fact that the Patriots are traveling across the country after a big loss.

Not sure if this is a must start, but eventually Legarrette Blount has to have a big game and why not on a Monday night vs Indy at home.  The usually porous run defense did a great job vs Mendenhall last week.  Not sure if they can do it 2 weeks in a row.

Tampa Bay defense.  Curtis Painter is starting his first game and I have never seen him do anything good, so I will go the other way until I see something different.

Don't start
I do not like Peyton Hillis this week.  He might find his way in the end zone, but I think the Titans find away to stop him especially until Colt McCoy finds a way to beat teams with his arm.

Do not start Steve Smith or Cam Newton.  They are going to Chicago and there is now enough tape on Cam Newton to see his tendencies.  Chicago is the best defense he has seen and will be tough going for him.

Gambles
Arian Foster, this is a gamble in the negative way as most people will be excited to have their number one pick in the lineup.  This is a tough start as he is going against the Steelers' run defense and is coming off a hamstring injury.  If you have good options, might be a good call to wait a week.

Deion Branch,  if you are in a ppr league only.  If you are desperate and need 10 to 15 points, I think this is the guy you go to.  He is probably available and will be in the offense a lot more this week in my opinion.  The Patriots like to game plan this way.  Last week was heavy Welker with no Branch, I expect to see a lot of Welker, but also a good amount of Branch.  Don't expect a touchdown, though.

Mark Sanchez, if you are desperate.  Baltimore will shut down this already feeble running game, which will force Sanchez to throw the ball a lot.  This will also be focused on receivers as if you are an avid reader of ATP, you will know that outside of Ed Reed, the Baltimore secondary is a work in progress.  I also like Holmes and Burress as sneaky plays.  Don't like Dustin Keller as much.

The Falcons are Learning to Spread its Wings

There has been a lot of noise about the troubling 1-2 start to the Atlanta Falcons season as there should be whenever a team starts this bad coming off a 13-3 year.  This Atlanta team was a heavy favorite to contend with the Saints for the NFC South Crown this season.  I for one am here to explain what I think they are doing and why they will stick with this plan.

Matty Ice

Atlanta had a very successful season last year by any standards as 13-3 is nothing to sneeze at, but I was among many who thought that they had no chance against Green Bay in the divisional playoff round.  This was at home, mind you, where Matty Ryan is usually unbeatable.  The problem that I saw and many others saw was that they were not good enough in key areas, such as the pass rush and the passing game.  People could dispute this saying that John Abraham is an excellent pass rusher and Matty Ryan is in fact Matty Ice.  Mr. Abraham was not enough to lift that defense last season especially with Kurtis Lofton, the middle linebacker out.  Matt Ryan has had some big games, but let's face it this offense was centered around Michael Turner and the running game.  Their offensive line is built that way and even the receivers they draft are good run blockers.  This mind set was something that you could get away with in the past, but in the new NFL, you better be able to move the ball like most college offenses do.  In my opinion, NFL offenses actually follow college offenses instead of vice versa.  Much of what you now see on Sundays, has been going on during Saturdays for years.  After a humiliating loss at home for the Falcons, I think head coach Mike Smith and management sat down and re-evaluated their future.  The future was let us trade most of our draft and go get another big name receiver to go along with superstar Roddy White.  So they went and got Julio Jones, who is a beast in my opinion and for you fantasy guys, a guy to hold onto as he will get better and better as the season goes.
What we have seen in the first few games is the new look offense, which seems to be built around the pass.  This will work in a few ways.  First it gives Michael Turner a break as he is coming off another 300 plus carry season.  He usually does not do as well coming off one of those as most running backs fall into this category, as it is too tough on the body.  Second, it will transition them to an offense that can  play with the likes of the Packers, Saints and the Patriots.  It is too early to throw the Lions and Bills in this category.  Do not expect any sudden change back to the original format, as the top brass in the Falcons organization knows that the old style might get them through the regular season, but there will be many early exits in the playoffs with that run first attitude.  So let's give Matty Ice some time to gel with his guys and let them take the next step.