Fantasy Picks for Week 4

ATP picked up some of the slack last week as we hit on the majority of picks, but now the byes are coming into play and we are going to have to dig deeper to find some hidden gems.  On to our picks for week four.

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo, I can appreciate what they have been doing in Dallas since the first game debacle, but with the Saints coming to town, the Cowboys will need to throw a little more than they have been recently.  Expect Romo to throw 2 and maybe even a third touchdown on Sunday night.
Phillip Rivers, the Jaguars are coming to town and that should be enough said, but the Jags have a new qb that you should not sleep on, so don't expect a blow out in this one.  Rivers should have a big game nonetheless.
Ryan Tannehill, a lot of controversy down in Miami about who should be starting, but a trip to Oakland may be just what is needed.  With his job possibly on the line, I expect them to run more, which should make it a little bit easier to throw when given the chance.  Should be able to get a couple in the end zone through the air.

Sleepers

Blake Bortles, don't expect miracles as it is his first start, but this young buck has looked good when given the opportunity and has a strong arm.  If you are stuck in a 2 quarterback league, this guy could really surprise you as they will have to keep up with the Chargers and the Jag running game has been non existent this year, which means there will be a lot of opportunity for him.
Mike Glennon, I would take Bortles out of the 2, but if Glennon gets the start, he has 2 big receivers that he likes to throw to and the Pitt D looked good last week, but we will see if it was an aberration.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller, after a lot of passing last week, I expect the Dolphin offense to get back to running and Miller, without much competition should thrive against Oakland.  He has also been doing well out of the backfield as a receiver.

Bradshaw looking like he did back as
a Giant.  Could help some fantasy
owners this week.

Donald Brown, there is nobody else in San Diego and the Jaguars do not do a great job of stopping the run, so expect Mr. Brown to have a good week.
Matt Forte/ Eddie Lacy, both have had pretty bad years so far, but expect them to pick it up this week as they are facing each other's defense, which should put a smile on both of their faces along with their fantasy owners.
Ahmad Bradshaw, slowly becoming the guy in Indy as Luck likes to throw to him out of the backfield as well.  Look for Indy to run the ball in the second half as they should have a decent lead at home against the Titans.

Sleepers

DeAngelo Williams, this guy is back and will carry the load as everybody else in Carolina is hurt.  As long as he is healthy, he should be a good start even though they are playing Baltimore.

Don't start

Chris Ivory/Chris Johnson, going against a tough Detroit run defense, these 2 will be up against it.  I would not even be scared to drop Johnson at this point if you have better options as they are not using him a lot and when he does get an opportunity, he is not making the most of it.
Joique Bell, don't love him going against the Jet run D.  There were some injuries on the defensive line to keep an eye on, but if they are at full strength, there are better options out there.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans/V-Jax, Mike Glennon should be starting and V-Jax had a great season with Glennon last year and Evans saw increased targeting last week when he stepped in.  Both of these guys worth the look and there could be some upside for Evans in the future.
Jeremy Kerley, it will be tough sledding for the running backs this week and Mr. Kerley should get a lot of targets with Decker still not at 100%.
Golden Tate, this will be specific to whether Megatron plays or not as he is still up in the air.  Stafford will be throwing a lot, so this could work out regardless as he should get some targets as Calvin is usually the focus of opposing pass defenses.

Roddy White, had a week off and will be happy to get back out there and take advantage of the Minnesota defensive backfield.  Look for shorter passes as Minnesota tries to take away the big play and make teams drive on them.

Sleeper

Jordan Matthews, this is the Eagles third receiver, who is quickly becoming the second one.  He had 2 touchdowns and was an ATP pre-season deep sleeper.  You could do worse than this guy in a ppr league, but also has tremendous upside as he will usually have a better match up than Maclin and Cooper on the outside, with most likely a nickel back or safety will be covering him.

Markus Wheaton, I am going to put my money on this guy again as he gets a lot of short targets and he has big play ability and speed.  More suited to be a ppr league guy.

Defenses

Pittsburgh, this team is available in most leagues and they have Tampa coming to town this week. This could blow up in our face, but there is tremendous upside as they did a great job last week at Carolina and hopefully, the Steeler D has turned it around and feast on Mike Glennon making his first start.

Atlanta, another gamble with upside.  Going to play against Minnesota with Bridgewater making his first career start.  These Atlanta corners are much better than people think as we just expect them to be bad, but keep an eye on Trufant and Alford manning these corners.

Week 3 Fantasy Picks

Last week was not one of my best as my quarterbacks really did the opposite with my must starts and sleepers all throwing clunkers and the guys I stated not to start did better than them.  I did okay in the other spots as all my running back sleepers scored a touchdown, which never hurts.  Niles Paul, who was my surprise of the week did not disappoint as had a 8-98-1 stat line.  Let's hope that we have more of those picks and less of my quarterback picks.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins, let me start with the quarterback, who is basically auditioning for a starting job in the NFL.  We don't know if it is for the Redskins or for another team, but he is auditioning.  After a solid game last week, we expect him to do pretty well again this week with the Redskins travelling to Philly to take on the Eagles.  They will need to throw and Jackson might have something to prove, which will help out Cousins as well.
Matt Ryan, if you have this guy, consider yourself lucky, at least when they are at home.  Tampa Bay is coming to the ATL and Ryan should have another nice game.  Just wanted to finish this thought as I began writing it before the game.
Nick Foles, my only issue would be is figuring out, if all of this is Foles or Chip Kelly.  Either way, Foles is becoming an every week starter as he is good for 2 touchdowns a game.  I would like that he complete more passes to Maclin and other receivers before I will begin to consider that it is all him, in the meantime, feel free to start this guy.
Andrew Luck,  he is having a hard time getting the win, but Luck is the future and the future is now.  They are going to Jacksonville winless, so this will be a game where they will need him to go off and I believe he will.

Don't Start

Colin Kaepernick, no Vernon Davis is almost as bad as no Michael Crabtree.  You might as well say he doesn't have either as Crab will be covered by Mr. Peterson, which is never good.  Stay away unless you are hoping for some rushing yards, which will not come easy either.
Andy Dalton, no AJ Green means it will be a little bit tougher and there are better options out there.  At home and not a tough opponent, but I would go somewhere else this week.
Jake Locker, playing against Cincy in Cincy.  Not a good look for any young quarterback, stay away.

Sleepers

It is now or never for this guy.

Eli Manning, looking pretty rough so far, the Giants need to get moving and this week at home against a weak offensive Houston team could be the game they need.  It will be tough to run, so expect Eli to throw a lot, maybe get you 2 touchdowns and could be a good QB# 2.
Geno Smith, I am beginning to like this guy from a fantasy perspective, but he is not getting the fantasy love he deserves.  He will be at home on Monday night with Chicago coming to town and they will be throwing, so Mr. Smith will need to keep up, which could mean 2 or maybe 3 TD's.

Running Backs

Zac Stacy, hasn't done much so far, but they have Dallas coming to town and that is the dinner bell for running backs.  Look for this guy to find the end zone on Sunday.
Frank Gore, I think with out Vernon Davis around and after last week's debacle with CK and his 4 turnovers, I expect Gore to get a heavy load and he has looked good so far.
Khiry Robinson/Pierre Thomas, Ingram is hurt and these 2 will fill the void.  Look for them to get even touches and Robinson to get goal line looks.
Stevan Ridley, the Patriots don't look to be passing much and Ridley is the goal line guy.  He had a lot of touches last week and I expect him to do the same this week.

Don't Start

Eddie Lacy, he has been up and down this year with his play and injuries.  Going into Detroit, I would not expect a lot of yards and Kuhn may vulture his goal line looks.

Sleepers

Donald Brown, will be the main back this week going to Buffalo and has been getting goal line looks already.  You could do a lot worse than this guy.
Lamar Miller, much of this is the same as Brown as with no Moreno in town, Miller will get the majority of the carries and Miami likes to run the ball.
Joique Bell/Reggie Bush, these 2 are going to have to keep the chains moving as we know this will most likely be a shoot out, but they are at home with Green Bay coming to town and this is a big game and these 2 will be needed.

Wide Receivers

Desean Jackson, Jackson has had this circled on his calendar for quite some time and I am sure Jay Gruden has this game planned and Cousins will target Jackson early and often as who knows the Philly defenders better than Desean.  They will need to throw and he should benefit.
Sammy Watkins, there are not a lot of great matchups and we might as well ride this guy and see if last week was just the beginning of a big season.
Julian Edelman, this guy should be an every week start in ppr leagues and if Brady keeps looking only his way, you might has well start him in all leagues as he is good for 8 catches a week.

Don't Start,

Michael Crabtree, too much going on this week as they travel to Arizona.  No Vernon Davis and Patrick Peterson covering him, it is time to stay away,

Sleepers

Torrey Smith, this will be conditional if Joe Haden is covering Steve Smith as they will be looking to give Torrey some targets as it has been widely publicized how little he is being used so far this year.
Mohammed Sanu, I don't love Dalton this week but he is going to have to throw the ball, so why not throw to this guy.  Big tall receiver should see some targets this week.

Harbaugh and Kaepernick Imitating Garrett and Romo?

Watching last night's game between the Bears and the 49ers only made me think of one thing, Romo and Garrett.  Frank Gore, who is getting up in years, did about as good as he is going to do.  You can tell he doesn't trust his speed as he is always looking to the side and cutting back instead of bursting through his path.  How the 49ers did not feed him the ball after not 1, not 2, not 3 but 4 turnovers by Kaepernick, who has all the intangibles and I like better than Romo, was beyond anything I could think of.

Kaepernick looked an awful lot
like Romo last night.

It seems that instead of watching game film of themselves or their opponents, they went back and looked at Cowboy film from last year, or better yet last week against, you guessed it, the 49ers.  Nobody avoids giving the ball to a talented workhorse back like the Cowboys.  They instead tend to throw at will, even when there is no need for it.  In fact, the first week of this season much like last season, Romo threw enough picks in the first half to put the game out of reach for themselves at home.  Yesterday must have been Bizzarro Day as the Cowboys gave the ball to Murray almost 30 times and what did he do, he had over 160 yards and a score.  More important, they won the game with really no problem, in Tennessee.  Now, the 49ers decided that somebody needed to pull of what the Cowboys did not and allowed Kaepernick plenty of opportunities to imitate Romo as he threw 3 picks and fumbled once in a game that was very one sided in the first half.  For some reason, the 49ers thought less of taking some time off the clock against a potent offense, never mind the fact that Gore averaged almost 5 yards a carry, with a 60 yard touchdown called back, which should not have been.  It was not as if they can't run the ball and they would go 3 and out by doing that, heck, I would even understood calling run plays for Kaepernick, just throw the ball a bit less when there wasn't as much of a need.  It seems Harbaugh was too smart for himself and should have had the offense tone it down a bit as they would have probably came away with a win, had they done that.  The big question is, will he be smart enough to not do it 2 weeks in a row, never mind the 2 years in a row, they have been doing it in Dallas.  I think he is smart enough, but only time will tell.

Week 2 Gambler's Corner

Hello all, here is the first edition of the gambler's corner for 2014.  Many who know me, know that I never make picks the first week of the NFL as you never know what team you will get in the first week.  We are now in week 2 and I am going to do my best to make you some money.  Here are my week 2 picks, but even though we are a week in, we are still a bit away from truly knowing who is who yet.  Here we go.

The Picks

Houston @ Oakland (40), I usually don't like to do this, but I am going to go with the under in this game.  Both teams are a bit offensively challenged and it is still early in the season, where defenses are usually way ahead.  Houston had a tough time running the ball, which seems to be the way they are going to focus their offense, which should take time off the clock.  Oakland, playing with a rookie quarterback are going to be running the ball and playing conservatively and although I would like to tease this game up for a few extra points, I am going to be brave and take the under here.

Detroit(2)@Carolina, I am going to take Detroit and the points as I believe in the Lions.  I think they will win this game outright as Carolina relies on the run and are playing a stout run defense.  Newton is playing, even though he is still injured, with a rookie receiver as his main threat.  It should be a close game, but I am going to stick by an earlier blog about believing in Stafford, despite the fact they are going into Carolina and a very good defense.  If Stafford gets this win, my earlier blog may be ringing true.

NY Jets(8) @ Green Bay,  this must be the way I am going with road dogs, but I might end up 0-3 on these picks.  I like the way the Jets are playing as they are going to be doing a lot of running and I don't see Green Bay doing a lot of stopping.  The Jets defense is going to get after Rodgers, and Lacy may have a hard time running the ball against Wilkerson and Richardson in the middle of that defensive line.  The bottom line is 8 points is a lot to give a good defense and running team, especially when your offensive line is being repaired on a weekly basis.  I am scared of this one a little bit, but I am sticking to my guns and these are my picks.

Fantasy Picks for Week #2

It is that time of the week again and we are now entering our game #2.  Hopefully, you were all successful in week one and maybe we gave you a tip that worked out in your favor.  Let's try and repeat our week 1 success.  There have been some new people taking a look and I want to make sure that you are all aware that I don't pick people like Peyton Manning, Calvin Johnson or LeSean McCoy or anybody of that caliber.  Those types of players are must starts and the only time I will mention them is if for some reason, I think you shouldn't start one of marquis players in the league.  I try to pick guys that you may not start and could be borderline guys.  Now on to the picks!

Quarterbacks

Must Start

Tom Brady, I am going double or nothing on this guy, as he was one of my few misses from last week, and the Patriots in general.  There is no way that he can have bad games twice in a row.  Belichick and the staff sat down and they figured out what was wrong with the line and they will look better this week.  If they do put up a similar stinker, the Patriots may be in trouble, but I don't see it happen.
Colin Kaepernick, I know this looks a lot like last week, but if they have the good matchups and look good then I am going to roll with them.  He has a weak Chicago defense coming to the grand opening of the new stadium and that place will be amped.  The great think about CK, is that the 49ers love to throw the ball down near the goal line, which is bad for Frank Gore owners but great for CK.
Andy Dalton, this kid keeps getting them to the playoffs and everybody complains.  Dalton, is young and is coming of age as each year he takes a step forward.  People are surprised that he plays the way he does, but if you watched him in college, it was no different.  He did not blow people away week in and week out.  He did just what he does now, he has a good game every once in a while, but he rarely loses them on his own.  This week, I like him a lot as I like the Bengals this year as well.  The pass happy Falcon offense is coming to town, but so is the same defense that takes steps back every year.  This should be a good game to watch as the Bengals D, as good as it is, may have a hard time with the Falcon offense and this leads to Dalton airing it out.  This is a good situation for Dalton owners or to take a flyer on him in Fan Duel as he is not that expensive.  Start with pride.

Is it back to the old Palmer?

Carson Palmer, don't sleep on Palmer as he may not be what he used to be, but he might have this team playing at a playoff level this season.  They have a very good defense that is not fully healthy and Michael Floyd is beginning to show what he can do at this level.  On the other side you have Larry Fitzgerald that will get more targets this week after not doing much last week as that is how it usually works.  They are playing the Giants and I expect at least 2 touchdown passes out of Palmer.

Don't Start

Phillip Rivers, I know it seems like I am picking on Rivers, but with the "Legion of Boom" coming to town, you might want to rest him this week.
Eli Manning, until this guy gets it going, you might want to leave him be, especially against Arizona.

Sleepers

Chad Henne, this guy might be worth the gamble, especially in a FanDuel type of league, where he he will not be that expensive.  Not sold on their running game, they will be throwing the ball near the goal line and this veteran might be able to get you a couple of touchdowns against an aging defensive backfield in Washington.
Jake Locker, they have this guy playing mistake free football and I expect more of that against a defense that is having a hard time figuring anything out as Dallas comes to town.

Running Backs

Gio Bernard, I know that Gio was picked pretty high in most drafts and should be a must start, but I don't have him as one yet, except for PPR leagues.  Not sure he is the guy to get goal line looks yet and if he is not getting more than 20 touches, might be a risk in most leagues.  This week he has the Falcons coming to town and I expect him to be heavily involved and he should be able to do work.
Chris Johnson/Chris Ivory, the Jets like to run and they are going to want to keep the ball away from the Packer offense, so I expect both to get a lot of touches and they should be able to do well vs this just okay defense.
Knowshon Moreno, I like how the Dolphins are playing all around football and I expect them to stay run heavy and let the defense do its job in what should be a tight game in Buffalo.  Moreno should get the bulk of the carries as the season progresses and I expect him to make the most of it, especially this week.
Terrence West, read what I wrote about the Jets and replace it with Browns and West.  Saints are coming and they will try to be run heavy against their weak defense.
Frank Gore, I have Gore, so this is personal as if last week happens again, it might tough to start him with Hyde getting almost as many touches. This week is a great matchup and the 49ers should run the ball against this weak Chicago defense and hopefully Gore finds the end zone this week.

Don't Start

Falcon RB, whoever you were thinking of putting in, I would avoid as they travel to Cincy, who do a great job against the run.
Williams/Stewart, I would stay away from Carolina's backs as the Lion defensive line usually eats running backs for lunch and I expect the same to happen this week.
Rashad Jennings, eventually, he will make the good list, but until Eli, the offensive line or anybody in this organization shows improvement, I will keep him on this one.  Especially against Arizona.

Sleepers

Mark Ingram, he looked especially good after dropping some weight in the offseason and he seems to be getting the goal line carries on a very good offense, might be worth the start, especially in FanDuel for $5900.
Darren McFadden, if MJD does not go, this might be Run DMC's last chance to show that he is a capable NFL back.  I know it is against Houston, but if you are up against it and maybe you had Peterson on your team, take a look as he is probably on the wire.
Asiata/Mckinnon, speaking of Peterson, these 2 will be the guys taking over for the foreseeable future.  Asiata is a straight ahead runner, which might not bode well against this Patriot defense.  McKinnon will be the change of pace guy which might have more room to run and do better, but Asiata is the better pick as he will at least get goal line looks.

Wide Receivers

Mike Wallace, this combo seems to be ready to go this season and I expect a better performance as Revis won't be on the other end.
Reggie Wayne, this guy looked real good and Luck really likes him.  Start this guy in all ppr leagues as he will be targeted, just not sure he will be scoring much this year.  Eagles will be scoring against this swiss cheese defense, so Luck will have to follow suit.
Jeremy Maclin, had a lot of targets last week and they are playing the Colts.  Let's move on.
Eric Decker, Smith targets him a lot and they have the Packers in town.  Might have to get a lot more looks to keep up.
Brandin Cooks, might be an every week as he already is in ppr leagues in my opinion.  Might be the last week I mention him as I like him that much.

Don't Start

Allen Hurns/Donnie Avery, I put them together as they both had big weeks, but I would wait and see on these 2.  Dwayne Bowe is back and there are more talented receivers in Jacksonville.  Last week would seem to be an aberration for Hurns and I would not start him this week.
Keenan Allen, look at what I said about Rivers.
Cordarelle Patterson, I know this guy is all the rage and I know he is talented, but I expect Belichick to keep this one guy in check with Peterson out.

Sleepers

Hakeem Nicks, he is a very talented receiver that is currently the third or fourth option in Indy.  Luck seems to notice his talent, especially around the goal line as he is their biggest wide receiver.  Could be a FanDuel special this week, with an eye towards the future in regular leagues.
Brian Quick, the Rams don't have much and Quick was maybe the lone bright spot.  Chris Long is out for a while, which hurts the defense and that means a lot more throwing in St. Louis.
Robert Woods, Manuel seems to be picking up where he left off early last season with Woods.  Keep an eye on this combo and might be worth the look in deep leagues.
Kendall Wright/Justin Hunter, like what these 2 have to offer especially with Dallas coming to town.

Tight Ends

Luke Miller, Wilson really seems to like this guy and I don't expect this to be a blowout as they are on the road in San Diego.  Wilson will be throwing until the final whistle and Miller gets a lot of targets, especially near the goal line.
Niles Paul, look out for this guy as he is taking over for Jordan Reed in Washington.  Griffin keeps it safe and what is safer than throwing to your tight end, that used to be a wide receiver. He will be my surprise of the week.

Sleeper

Dwayne Allen, with Fleener dropping the ball too often and Allen making the most of his targets, there could be a changing of the guard.  They may need him with Philly coming to town.
Larry Donnell, good week last week and a lot of drops by the receivers in New York, this could lead to Donnell becoming a better option than he should be.  Cruz did come out and complain about his lack of targets, so we could see Eli forcing more bad throws to Cruz so he can do a Salsa dance.

Defense

Houston, I know that Clowney is out, but Watt is playing pretty insane and the rest of the defense is following suit.  They are going to Oakland and playing against a rookie quarterback, a backup running back with injury problems and a receiving corps that nobody could name.  Seems like a good defense to have this week.

Thanks for looking and please like us on FaceBook and help get the name out there.  Please comment if you like or dislike any picks.

Matt Stafford Might Be All Grown Up!

Could this be the year?

We have been here before, many of times actually, where we are not sure what to do with Matt Stafford.  Sure, he has the talent, the big arm and the SEC pedigree, all the makings of a franchise quarterback, but it seems that consistency has never been his strong suit.  Many analysts point out how Matt never follows through with his fundamentals and every year it seems that there is a new coach in place to help him out.  Every year we see glimpses, but there is never any follow through and we always end up seeing an inconsistent Mr. Stafford.  I for one, was not looking to take him too high as my fantasy quarterback, although I do like him, but like many in the NFL, he lacks consistency.  One thing I look for in my quarterback is a guy that will give me at least 15 a week as I don't want the guy who gives me 4 one week then 40 the next, which Stafford has been.  This year, the quarterback whisperer has come to town and that is Jim Caldwell.  He turned Joe Flacco, who was having a pretty bad year into a Super Bowl winning quarterback in the same season.  Even though it has only been one game and it was at home against a not so great defense, Stafford showed some signs of maturity.  He did not make any major mistakes and looked a lot more patient.  He also realizes that he has more targets than just Megatron.  I am not saying that Stafford is the best quarterback in the league, but I do think he will be a lot more consistent and I would move him into a top 5 quarterback going forward.  He has a lot of weapons around including Megatron, Tate, Bush, Ebron, Pettigrew Fauria among others.  I think this is the year that Stafford and the Lions turn some heads.

2014 Fantasy Wide Receiver Sleepers

The 2014 Season has already started and we usually like to have this ready to go before the fantasy drafts start, but we were not able to get it done.  Hopefully, this list may help you down the road as there are free agents to pick up as many get hurt and many don't live up to expectations, so the season is just starting, which means keep this list handy as you may find this year's Alshon Jeffrey as he made this list last year.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans,  I know he plays for Tampa and Josh McCown is the quarterback, but remember that McCown was the guy who came in and decided to make Jeffrey his main guy and not Brandon Marshall.  So for people who think it has to be VJax in Tampa, do not sleep on Mike Evans, who has great body control and goes up and over defensive backs to get the ball.  He might be on the wire right now, so if you have a bunch of handcuffed running backs and need some depth at WR, take a chance, before it is too late.

Steve Smith doesn't need to look over
his shoulder anymore as he should
have single coverage.

Brandin Cooks, many people are talking about Cooks, but if you are in a ppr league, I don't mind starting this guy in the first week as WR3.  He is too quick for many people and like Tavon Austin, who was never given the opportunity last year, Cooks has Brees throwing to him and guys like Cooks make it easy for quarterbacks and they know it.
Justin Hunter/Kendall Wright, look for Locker to pick it up this season as people like him in camp and with Wisenhunt running the show, they will make sure to keep him in good situations.  These 2 receivers will be WR3's at the minimum by the end of the season.
Steve Smith, I know this doesn't make sense, but people are not drafting this guy and he has looked very good and with Torrey Smith getting the most attention, Pitta running around the middle of the field, Stevie will be getting single coverage for the first time in a long time.
Denarius Moore, he has turned in some good performances and is out there on most wires and is worth the look.  I would not start him against the Jets in week 1 with a rookie quarterback, but Moore will be at least WR3, if not a WR2 by end of the season.
Miles Austin, he is Cleveland's #1 receiver right now and they need to throw to somebody, so why not Austin.  The #2 is Andrew Hawkins, who should be more of a slot guy at 5'7", which means Jordan Cameron should be getting a lot of looks, but why not take a flyer on Austin, just in case.

Deep Sleeper

Kenny Britt/Tavon Austin, both of these guys have Shaun Hill throwing to them, so that is enough to scare people off, never mind the fact that people probably don't realize Kenny Britt is still in the league.  Don't sleep on Britt as nobody has ever doubted his talent, but his work ethic has lacked, which does not seem to be the case this season.  The good news about Hill, is that he may be looking for easy throws with a great defense that should keep teams to low scoring.  This leaves a great opportunity for Austin in ppr leagues.
Sammy Watkins/Kelvin Benjamin, these 2 are getting a lot of the publicity for rookies, but I am not ready to make them actual sleepers as I don't know where their quarterbacks will take them, but if you are in very deep leagues and you have room on your roster, stash them in the back and hope for the best.
Marquise Lee, not getting the same publicity as he is hanging out in Jacksonville, where receivers get no love, just ask Cecil Shorts, who has done fairly well and still goes undrafted as #1 receiver and could be on this list as well.  Lee has real big play ability and when Blake Bortles is starting by game 5, this could turn into a combo to watch, especially if Justin Blackmon ever gets his act together.

Deep Deep Sleep

Jordan Matthews, this is the Jarrett Boykin of the Eagles where he is sitting as the third receiver behind Maclin and Cooper, but in this offense, he can provide a real spark.  He catches everything and runs good routes and plays in Chip Kelly offense.  Keep an eye and pick him up if he shows promise.
Cole Beasley, this is the Cowboys' Wes Welker as he is very quick and still with the Cowboys after a few years, which means they see promise, as they probably learned from their mistake of getting rid of Amendola back when they had him as a young pup.

Fantasy Picks for Week 1 of 2014

It has been a long off season, but now it is time to get back in the swing of things as many of you probably had people going last night.  Some of you may have been happy (Marshawn Lynch, Percy Harvin owners) and others of you may have not been (Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy owners).  This is the life that we chose and once the decision is made we need to stick with it.  Get ready for another year of these dizzying weeks of big decisions to be made.  Hopefully, ATP can help out as this will be our first weekly edition of picks.

Quarterbacks

Must Start

Matty Ice ready to start
2014 on a high note.

Tom Brady, as was posted in an earlier blog, Brady should get back to 30+ touchdowns this year, now that Gronk seems to be back.  Going against Miami in Miami has never been the best games for the Patriots, but this team looks as if they have a lot to prove and I think that Brady feels the same way.  Should be a big one for him.
Jay Cutler, much of what was said for Brady can apply to Cutler, except Cutler just has a bunch of great toys running around and with Trestman running the show playing against Buffalo, this should be a big game for him.
Colin Kaepernick, I was really high on CK last year and probably due to Crabtree not being there to start the year, he did not do what was needed for fantasy owners.  This year is a different story and when Crabtree did come back, CK had a great run.  I am going to back him and if there was any week to start him, this would be it as Dallas can not stop a Texas high school team at this point.
Matt Ryan, don't sleep on this guy as he lost Gonzo, but has Julio and Roddy back at full strength.  Look for Ryan to have a big year, even if I am not sold on the Falcons.  The one major issue will be the offensive line.

Don't Start

Ryan Tannehill, the Patriots defense has a new look secondary, Mayo and Wilfork are back, which could be dangerous for opposing offenses.  This would not be the week to start Tannehill.
Jake Locker, this is a guy that I consider a sleeper for the season as a whole, but going into KC on a season opener. People would be wise to wait a couple of weeks to see what you can get out of him.
Phillip Rivers, I don't mind Rivers, but going into Arizona might be a tough game for him.  Peterson will be covering Allen, Gates is getting old and not sure about the rest.  This could be a lower scoring game and might not be worth the gamble this week.

Sleeper

Geno Smith, here is an underrated player that plays in an offense that likes to run the ball.  Mr. Smith has Oakland coming in to town and in a 2 quarterback league, could come in and give you 20+ points as QB2.  He has new weapons and the fact that defenses focus on the run against the Jets, could open things up.
Joe Flacco, nobody is talking about Wacco for Flacco and I think that is how they like it in Baltimore.  With some new toys in Smith and Pitta being healthy, expect this offense to do fairly well this year.  I have confidence in Flacco and in a 2 qb league, would be fine to start as my QB2, would be a must start if he was playing somebody other than Cincy.

Running Backs

Start

Arian Foster, coming off an injury plagued year, Foster will be the main guy, now that Tate is in Cleveland.  He is at 100% and should get a lot of touches, which should make for an interesting game vs the Redskins. The main issue will be if Fitzpatrick can keep the Redskins from putting 8 in the box and giving him some room.
Frank Gore, Gore's worst enemy will most likely be himself.  He is getting older and he has Carlos Hyde on his tail.  Outside of that, this is a great week to start him as he is going against Dallas and they are picking up semi pro guys to help out on defense.  Gore should score 1 or 2 against these guys.
Chris Johnson, Oakland is coming to town and Johnson is looking pretty good.  The big question is whether he will be taken out near the goal line.  He should have a big year yardage wise and the Jets are committed to the running game.  People who drafted him after round 5 definitely got some value.

Don't Start

Lamar Miller, not sure if he will be the main guy this season with Moreno breathing down his neck, but the new look Patriot defense will do a good job against the run this season and should contain Miller.
MJD, the Jets pride themselves on stopping the run and with maybe the best interior defensive line in the NFL, sorry Detroit, this should be tough for MJD to get going in his first game as a Raider.
Ryan Matthews, I am not sold yet as to what will happen in San Diego with Donald Brown and Woodhead still being involved in the offense.  Arizona is missing some guys on the interior defense, but I would still wait and see how Matthews does before starting him.
Rashad Jennings, not that I mind Jennings as he has done okay in the time that I have seen him play, but it is too early to take him with the way the Giants line is playing against Detroit's defensive line is playing.  Stay away from this guy.

Sleepers

Toby Gerehart, not a huge fan, but going against the Eagles, the Jaguars are going to want to keep some type of ball control and keep the ball out of Philly's hands.  There should be no worry about goal line carries either, so this should work for Gerehart owners.  To top it off, Philly's defense is not known for their run stopping as they like to have smaller, faster guys, which can be pushed around.
Steven Jackson, expect a high scoring game as the Saints are coming to town and much like Dallas, they do not do a good job against the run.  Should get goal line carries, which should put him in the end zone at least once.

Wide Receivers

Roddy White, let us start this year with a guy that showed that people wrote off but ATP still loves.  White, is not Julio Jones, but he still has plenty left in the tank.  Going against New Orleans with Julio on the other side and a determined Matt Ryan.  Feel confident in starting White this week.
Eric Decker, should have a lot of targets as the only real outside receiver on the roster.  In a ppr league, should be good as he will have his share of catches, but much like Jordy last night, probably won't find the end zone.
Julian Edelman, watching the game last night and seeing Rodgers to Nelson so many times, reminds me how quarterbacks love to throw to certain guys and Brady to Edelman is one of those combinations.  Edelman does not find the end zone a ton, but in a ppr league, should be a wr2 start almost every week.
Jeremy Maclin, not enough people talking about Maclin as when he is on the field, he is a difference maker.  Unfortunately for his owners, him being on the field has been a challenge in itself.  No Jackson give Maclin his chance at showing the world what he can do and I think he answers the bell.  Good start against the Jags defense.
Emmanuel Sanders, I expect this guy to have a really big year as he blows the roof off of coverages.  He is too fast and there are too many weapons in Denver.  Start and be happy.

Don't Start

Keenan Allen, tough not to start this guy as you need to go with your best, but Peterson is coming to town and he will be covering Allen most likely, so start at  your own risk.
Mike Wallace, this one is kind of a toss up as we are not sure what the Patriots will do with Revis.  The Patriots do not always lock receivers up with shut down corners, but would stay away just in case.

Sleepers

Steve Smith, this guy is a beast and with Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta out there with him, Smith will have single coverage for the first time in a long time.  Should be good for ppr leagues.

Cody Latimer, if you are really hurting in a deep league, which you shouldn't be as it is the first week, this guy could be a real deep sleeper.  Denver might move Sanders to Welker's spot and move Latimer out wide, which will guarantee him some looks with Manning out there.  Could be a good pick if you are doing a FanDuel type of league for cheap money.

Tight Ends

Sleepers

Dennis Pitta, I have already explained how much I like the offense and despite playing the Bengals.  Pitta is the security blanket for Flacco and with the Smith's manning the outside receiver spots, the middle should like nice and open for Pitta.
Jordan Reed, Reed is a freak athlete that should have a good year if Griffin is back.  It will be tough for teams to cover Reed when you have Garcon and Jackson on the outside.  Don't think the Redskins will be able to run too effectively so they may be throwing a lot of conservative passes to not get Griffin killed, which bodes well for Reed.

Defenses

Patriots, I like these guys and they are going to Miami, which does not play well with the heat, but I am confident that they can shut down the weaponless Miami Dolphin offense.
Eagles, with the Jags coming to town and a revamped Eagle secondary ready to feast on Henne throws, this could be a nice game to start this defense.
Jets, Oakland is making the cross country trek and are starting a rookie at quarterback.  I don't mind Carr, but I will take my chances with Rex and his defense against a rookie.

Why You Should Love The Patriots For Fantasy This Year!

Look for Brady to have a big year along with a
slew of other Patriots.  With Gronk back, this
is a different team, especially for fantasy.

The Patriots, much like many of the past seasons recently, made it to the AFC championship, only to lose to a much better Bronco team.  Brady had a pretty good season, fairly pedestrian for him since he went berserk in 2007, but much like the years previous with more yards.  Many have begun to state how it is the beginning of his downfall or he didn't have receivers or whatever the case people wanted to make.  Here at ATP, we have thought differently, as we have linked it to a few different factors including Gronk missing most of the season, Hernandez going on a killing spree, Amendola being injured or not on the same page as Brady among other ideas.  There is also the idea that maybe the Patriots realizing with defenses changing up due to the pass heavy offenses of the NFL, going with more of a run approach with a threat to pass is good enough to get you to the AFC Championship, which in case you didn't notice, worked. 
The 2014 Patriots, seem to be going all in as they have acquired Revis, which a few years ago would have seemed insane for Belichick to do.  I think that many people complain as they did not do enough to help the offense, I contend that there was not much for them to do.  Gronk coming back, does so much to help this offense that I don't think people realize.  Losing Hernandez on top of Gronk changed the offense last year tremendously.  This year, they went out and got Tim Wright, who in one scenario can be Gronk insurance or he can be just the type of guy that can take over where Hernandez left off.  This all leads to how does it affect how you should be drafting Patriots for fantasy football.  The 2 guys I am highest on are Brady and Gronk.  Brady seems to be an after thought in many drafts, which shows that people rely too much on old information.  His best games last season were when Gronk was in the mix.  When he was not, the Patriots were happy to rely on their running game and Brady making good reads when needed, but limiting their turnover potential.  At running back, you will be safe with either Vareen or Ridley, but Vareen should be taken a few rounds behind in non ppr leagues as I don't think there is any situation where he carries the ball for 20 times a game outside of one game, maybe two, which will be game plan situations.  Ridley will be their goal line back and as long as he doesn't fumble will have a lot more room to run with Gronk in the mix.  Two guys that can be picked up relatively late or even as free agents are Amendola and Tim Wright as they could both be good value picks.  Amendola would be a better ppr pick as well as he is not going to be a scoring machine.  Edelman, who I think will have a good year, is going too high in most drafts.  He may be worth it in a ppr league, but I think his catches might be similar to last year, but his touchdowns and yards will take a hit with everybody back in the mix, which will hurt in regular fantasy leagues.  This is a team that will surprise a lot of teams fantasy wise and I like them as the best team in the AFC this season.