Fantasy for Week 4

At this point, many of you have a feel for your team and it usually comes down to a couple of changes due to a bye or an injury.  Much like the stock market, you can get into trouble buying high or selling low, which is something we all do when it comes to fantasy.  Case in point, I am tired of Dwayne Bowe, so I am benching him this week, which would be in effect selling low after a 1 point effort in a PPR league.  I would try to minimize this unless you have a really good feel, which none of us do, as I am sure that Mr. Bowe will probably score twice today.  Try to stick with changes due to factors you can do nothing about and expect everything to average out.  Let us move on to the picks.

Quarterbacks

RGIII,  eventually I am going to hit it on the head with this guy.  He threw for over 325 yards last week and did not throw or run for a touchdown, which does not go over well for many owners.  I expect him and the Redskins to get a victory and RGIII to at least have 2 touchdowns.

Twice is a charm. Has to do
good this week. He just has to.

Big Ben, he had a pretty good week for fantasy owners, not a great one for Steeler fans last week.  I expect him to keep moving forward with another good matchup against the Vikings.  There are not a ton of great quarterback matchups this week, so you may need to use this one.

Eli Manning, whenever you count out the Giants and expect them to be terrible, you can count on them to go on the road against a good team and show up in a big way.  Not saying the Giants will win, but don't be surprised if they do and the only way they do that is with Eli having a big game. Start him.

I would not start Carson Palmer if you have been in a 2 qb league and I would be hesitant to go with Rivers as Dallas has quietly shown to be a formidable defense outside of the first week.  Dallas has also been running the ball a lot, which has shortened up the game by eating up the clock.

Running Backs

Trent Richardson,  most people probably start T-Rich already but I expect him to have a big game as Bradshaw is out and he is been in the system for a couple of weeks and should be better acquainted.  The Colts under Chuck Pagano are going to stress running and defense to the behest of the Andrew Luck owners.  Should be a good one for this guy.

Lamar Miller,  the Dolphins are traveling to New Orleans for a Monday night matchup of undefeated teams.  I expect the Dolphins to run the ball fairly often to keep Brees and company off the field and then use play action to pass and try to hit a big play with Wallace. Miller should get a lot of touches and the only drawback is if he loses goal line touches to Daniel Thomas.

Bilal Powell, the Jets are going to bring Geno along slowly despite the Off coordinator wanting to throw all the time.  Expect this dude to get a lot of carries as Chris Ivory is out for today.

If Denver made up their mind, I would tell you to start whoever is getting the bulk.  Moreno should be a good call in PPR leagues as he should make up for it with a few catches.

Don't expect much out of Chris Johnson as the Jets will try and take him out of the game and let Locker beat them.  You have to start Peterson, but I expect him to not do much as well, hopefully you get a touchdown out of him.  Much the same with Marshawn Lynch as they are traveling to Houston, who is upset after a bad loss last week.  He might be able to punch a couple in but don't expect many yards.  I wouldn't start Green-Ellis as Cleveland has been quietly shutting down the run, but you may be able to start Giovanni Bernard as he is a threat out of the backfield and has been scoring lately.  Spiller's role has been diminished lately and they are playing a rejuvenated Baltimore defense, but they run hot and cold so you may luck out this week.

Wide Receivers

Let me start by saying that I would really have to second guess starting Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green this week.  All will be covered by very good corners who have been shutting down number one guys all year.  Out of the 3 I feel the safest with AJ Green as Dalton looks his way so much, you might catch Joe Haden off guard.

Deandre Hopkins, usually you start a number 2 guy because number 1 is hurt, but in this case it helps as Richard Sherman will be on Andre Johnson causing Mr. Hopkins to have a lot more targets today.  Now we just need him to catch it when it is thrown his way.  Despite starting him, which caused me to lose, I am endorsing him for this week.

Kenbrell Thompkins,  why not give this guy a look as we can't expect New England to get an easy win over Atlanta on the road.  This could be a high scoring affair and I expect Brady to have to throw a lot in this one.  If they keep Thompkins on the offensive left away from Asante, you should be all set.

Antonio Brown,  he should be an every week start on most teams, but I don't think he has been.  He is becoming in sync with Big Ben and should keep it going against a week Minnesota defense.

Ryan Broyles, taking the place of Nate Burleson who has been getting a ton of targets, Broyles is a lot younger and should finally start to play in this league.  If you need one, take a flyer on this guy in PPR leagues.

 

Defense

Indianapolis, I like what Pagano is doing in Indy and going against a bad Jaguar team, I expect these guys to do some work today.

Baltimore,   going to Buffalo against a rookie quarterback, this could be the type of game where they put up big numbers or lay a goose egg, which they are known to do against lesser teams.

Week 4 Suicide Picks

Hopefully, most of you are still alive into this week and there are a couple of good potential picks, but it always gets a little bit more difficult every week as  you have most likely used the best teams to date.  So far I have used New England, Houston and Seattle.  For this week, I am going to use as my pick as many may be, is the Indianapolis Colts.

Luck shouldn't need any of it
against the hapless Jags this week.

I don't think it is a total gimme as the Colts don't put up gaudy offensive numbers, so any given week they could be beat.  Many people may be already jumping on the who is Jacksonville and Oakland playing game, but a team going winless does not happen that often so eventually you will get caught playing that game.  The main reason I like this game is simply that the Jaguars have showed nothing offensively and Chuck Pagano has something going on with the Colts's defense.  They are beginning to come around as they played pretty great last week in a big win over the 49ers.  

Baltimore over Buffalo is a good matchup as the Ravens' defense seems to be coming around and I don't expect much out of the Buffalo offense.  The main issue will be if Flacco and company lay an offensive egg as they tend to do to bad teams every once in a while.  Baltimore and the Giants are 2 teams that probably kill the most suicide pools from my experience.

I would stay away from Seattle as they are going into Houston.  The Seahawks are probably one of the 2 best teams at this point along with the Broncos, but they are not a great road team and Houston is coming off a pretty bad loss and are being written off for the most part this week.  I don't think many people would be using New England this week, but I would not especially if they are without Gronk and Amendola.

If I had to pick off the grid, I would go with the Redskins as they are not as bad as they have played.  I expect RGIII to go to Oakland and pick up their first win, which they blew last week as they had several chances.  Good luck and see you next week.

Week 3 Fantasy Picks

It is now week 3 and you are beginning to see who on your team will be somebody to count on.  You probably won't have a true idea until maybe the fourth or fifth week, but there are definitely some guys that you know you can drop as they have been on the practice squad or maybe even been cut when you thought they were going to possibly be sleepers.  Cut bait if you have a small bench and stick with guys you can use.  If you have a deep bench and you think that you still have some potential home run hitters that you don't want to give up feel fee to do so.  On to the picks.

Quarterbacks

RGIII will take off the safe shirt and
play much better than he has today.

RGIII,  if you have been feeling bad about picking up RGIII, this will be the week that he is going to make you feel good about it again.  The main issue has been the fact that he was kept out of the pre season and he is not in game shape or very confident in his knee yet.  Despite practicing in training camp, it is not the same when you have a safe shirt on and you know you can't be hit.  He needed those games to get mentally ready.  I don't see them having the easiest time running the ball so he is going to need to be able to pass today.  I also expect him to run a bit more as they will need to keep up with Stafford and company. 

Andy Dalton, I don't throw him up on my start list often, but if they want to hang with Green Bay then Dalton is going to have to be able to hit his receivers.  Obviously, he will be looking to AJ Green who was held in check last week by Ike Taylor, but look for Tyler Eifert to get more and more looks.  He looks to be an Aaron Hernandez type TE that is a tough match up for defenses, could be a sleeper TE in deep leagues.  Due to Pittsburgh not being able to score vs Cincy's defense there was no real need to force any throws last week as they felt comfortable playing it safe.  They will not be able to do that this week.  He should be a safe qb2 start and qb1 if you are desperate.

Carson Palmer, I keep putting him on the list as many people don't seem to think he is worthy yet.  He has played it pretty safe and has kept his team in the mix in both games and I expect him to do much of the same today when Arizona goes to New Orleans.  Could be a shoot out, but at any rate they will need to throw in this game.  Safe qb2.

Really Desperate

Big Ben,  a lot of people have lost faith in Big Ben, but I do expect him to turn it around.  I would hold off in a qb1 league as I like to play it safe, but in a qb2 league, this could be time for him to start throwing especially with Tillman hurt for Chicago.  Eventually, they can not just play it safe and will have to start throwing the ball instead of expecting their defense to win it for them.

Don't like

Russell Wilson,  I know he has a great matchup but they might be up pretty quickly and they may just run the ball all day as they have been doing to some degree.  He is not the worst start but there are better matchups out there.

Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch,  obviously people are going to be starting this guy pretty much every week.  I don't love Lynch but I do today as the Jags who actually have the number 2 pass defense, mainly because teams are running out the clock against them at pretty much half time, but at any rate expect much of the same today as it will be running and defense for Seattle.

Joique Bell,  I am mainly putting this guy in because I like his name and if Reggie Bush does not go, this guy could get you 2 touchdowns just because of the offense.  They throw to the running backs fairly often so a double bonus for PPR.

Desperation

Jacquizz Rogers and Jason Snelling,  not sure who will get the majority, but they are going against a good Miami defense.  If you are in PPR, Rogers may give you a boost in that regard, but there is no telling if he will get goal line touches.  Could be low single digits if you guess wrong with this pick.

Don't love

James Starks,  I know he had a big week last week, but they were also up 30 fairly quickly.  Don't expect that to happen against Cincy and a pretty stout run defense.

Matt Forte, in a PPR league he is a start, but in a standard league I don't like him going to an unhappy 0-2 Pittsburgh on Monday night.  I know it is tough to bench somebody like this but if you have a capable backup, now is possibly the time to do so.  I almost feel the same way about Peterson but even in bad games, he somehow puts up 2 touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

Garcon & Hankerson,  I think both of these guys will get their share of targets as RGIII will be moving around a lot and will open these 2 up against a bad Detroit secondary.

Brian Hartline, should get a lot of targets if Mike Wallace is not able to go.  Miami is going to be playing a good Atlanta team that should keep the pressure on Miami to score.

Deandre Hopkins, should get some targets after a good week and even if Andre Johnson goes, which he should, he will have Ladarious Webb covering him.  This should make Hopkins a fairly decent target.  Hopefully I don't eat my words with this one as I just put him in over Decker in a PPR league.  Mostly due to the fact that I will probably get murdered and I like Hopkins big play ability over Decker.

Desperate

Josh Gordon,  usually I would like to wait a week or 2 to see how he looks, especially with a quarterback starting just his second NFL game.  I do think that the Brian Hoyer to Josh Gordon connection could prove to work.  Without much of a running game, Hoyer could throw quite a few times as he will be all juiced up for this one.  Hoyer could be a desperate qb start as well, but I am not sure who your quarterbacks would have to be to need to start this guy.  Stick with Gordon if you have to for now.

Defensive Sleeper

Buffalo,  I don't expect this to be a high scoring game so the Jets wouldn't be the worst call either.  I didn't have a ton of options so I am personally going with the Bills as I like Manuel more than I like Geno Smith.  I also need this to work as I am going against Seattle's defense which might put up 50 points today against Jacksonville.

Week 3 Suicide Picks

The toughest part of this week is whether to figure out if you want to take the week off and just go with the obvious.  This is that week that is soon as you are able to see who everybody picked you are going to see about 99% of people either picking Seattle or Denver, who if I had to choose I would go with Seattle.  I am not sure yet if I am going to go that route and do I want to be the one of 2 guys who has a lot of faith in himself that he will go far in this season's suicide pool and want to save those teams.  Well I don't, I like to get to the next week and truth be told the NFC West is scary and I think any one of the other 3 teams could beat Seattle on any given day.  So picking Seattle going forward is not going to be a given and I will use them this week as I don't think they will cover 19.5 points unless the defense scores twice, but they should come out with the victory.

My Pick

Seattle, I pretty much explained that there is no way the Jaguars will beat them in Seattle.

Who else

Denver, I think they took a big hit this week with Ryan Clady out as I had blogged about earlier, but they still might have too much offense for Terrelle Pryor and the Raiders, who have not had the easiest time scoring so far.

San Fransisco,  I don't think they can possibly lose after a week like last week.  I expect Kaepernick to pick it up and this is third

Trap Games

I honestly feel that this is the perfect week to stay safe as pretty much every other game is going to be tough.  Minnesota is not a lock over Cleveland in my opinion as Brian Hoyer may surprise some people.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense and you better believe that they are going to do their best to stop Adrian Peterson.  If they are able to accomplish that and Joe Haden shuts down one side, which he has done a pretty good so far of doing, this might not have the expected result.

New England,  as much as I have faith in Belichick and company to become a playoff team, they may not have all the pieces yet as they are still missing some guys.  This is a game that will be played in rainy weather and with Revis covering most likely Edelman, Brady is going to have some tough sledding.  Tampa Bay could easily be 2-0 if they had any quarterback not named Freeman at the helm as he has not been able to help out this formidable defense.  The Patriots have had a week and a half to get the kinks worked out, but don't consider it a layup if that was the route you were going to go.

Not Enough People Talking About the Bigger Story Today

It is all well and good that Trent Richardson has found a new home in Indianapolis.  Whether it was due to him not fitting into the system, or if they are stock piling picks for next year to get a top quarterback or even Jadeveon Clowney, which would not help the Browns too much as it is offense they need, or whatever crazy reason people may come up with.  Personally, the fact that they are one game out in the division with 3 0-2 teams was pretty comical of the Browns to make this type of move.  Do I think it makes the Colts a better overall team, yes I do.  They are looking for a bad to carry the load and that type of offense, Trent Richardson should make his fantasy owners much happier.  Despite all of this the biggest story of the day actually took place in the city of the last franchise quarterback that Indy had.

Peyton will be looking around
his shoulder a bit more without
this guy in the mix.

In case you haven't heard or only pay attention to stories that directly relate to your fantasy team, Ryan Clady, Denver's left tackle is out for the season.  This is a much more relevant story to the NFL as now, 2 of the original 5 starting lineman for Denver are out for the season as Dan Koppen was hurt in training camp.  This will really affect how Peyton goes through his reads as he just lost a top 5 tackle protecting his blind side.  This will lead to a lot quicker throws, which is very good for Wes Welker owners as he may be dropping it off to him and whatever running back they are rolling with that given week.  Denver, in my opinion truly took a step back, which means that they are not a shoo in to win the AFC anymore.  They will still most likely win 12-13 games especially once they get Von Miller back in a few weeks to help make that defense much more dangerous as they have lacked a pass rush to some degree.  Peyton Manning owners do not need to worry except for the fact that he may be throwing more slants and less complicated patterns.  Clady going down probably doesn't help the running backs much fantasy wise either, but let's be serious if you were counting on those guys, your team wasn't that good to begin with.

Fantasy Football Picks for Week 2

It is week 2 and I am pretty sure we are all ready for another week of fantasy football.  Was there a game on Thursday as I don't think it was worthy of any real starts besides Julian Edelman in PPR leagues.  Chris Ivory did look pretty good running the ball, but as Mike Mayock stated about 50 times during the game, Marty Mornhinweg does not like to run the ball.  If you need a running back, which I did and still do, I would go and pick up Ivory as Geno Smith throwing 3 picks will have to make Marty change his mind on his balance of running and throwing, worth a look for the next couple of weeks if you are desperate.

On to my picks, for those that have not read the blog, I don't tend to say start AP as he pretty much should be an every week start regardless of match up.  That being said if Christian Ponder does not help him out, that could change in the future.  I would mention if I think a top guy should be sat though, which I might have done with Brady this past Thursday if you are in a one quarterback league and there are good options on the wire. 

Quarterbacks

I love Eli this week, enough said!

Eli Manning, this is a Manning that is not an every week start in most 1 quarterback leagues, but if you have him and your other quarterback is not Peyton Manning, give him the start.  The Giants are having some real issues running the ball and I don't think bringing Brandon Jacobs in is going to be the answer.  Expect the Giants to throw the ball plenty in this game as will the Broncos, which will lead to a longer game due to incompletions, which will lead to a lot more plays.  I would not be surprised to see 40-50 passes out of both quarterbacks in this one. 

Phillip Rivers, don't love him like Eli, but he will be forced to pass a lot.  They will try running the ball to keep Vick and company off the field but in the end, he will throw the ball and he might get you 3 touchdowns.  So if you have a couple of questionable starts in a 2 qb league, Rivers could be a good option.

Carson Palmer,  pretty similar to Rivers except they will not be able to run the ball against the best defensive line in the league, which Detroit definitely has.  Palmer will throw the ball a ton and against a pretty bad pass defense, this should work out pretty well.  I like Palmer more than Rivers.

Stay Away

Andrew Luck,  Miami is coming to town and they have a good all around defense.  I don't think Luck is going to have a sophomore slump, I just think that they are going to run more as they are changing their identity.  You would be lucky to get 2 touchdowns out of him this week.  In today's NFL, that is a pretty bad week. 

I don't really like Andy Dalton much, but with AJ Green being virtually unstoppable it might not matter much.  Full disclosure, I have Kaepernick and I am hesitant to start him in my 1 qb league.  I am not going to overthink the room, but I have thought about picking up Bradford or Palmer to start, I just don't have anybody I am willing to drop for this one week pickup.

Running Backs

Matt Forte, with Minnesota coming to town, Marc Trestman probably saw a lot that he liked with the way Detroit used Reggie Bush last week.  Expect Forte to get a lot of touches and he should be great for PPR owners.  Got some goal line touches, which is always one of my concerns regarding Forte with Michael Bush in Chicago.

Eddie Lacy, time to give this guy a look.  Despite not having a great opener, averaging less than 3 yards a carry, I think this is the week for him to get into a groove.  Don't expect McCoy like numbers against this Washington defense, but he should be able to give you close to 100 and hopefully a score if they don't bring Kuhn in.

Stay Away

Chris Johnson,  going against a pretty good defense in Houston, this might be a tough start as Houston may be up and the Titans may have to pass fairly often.  You could do worse than this but if you have Eddie Lacy, Daryl Richardson or similar options you should go with them.

Even though I like Ahmad Bradshaw and Mendenhall and thought they were good values, this might not be the week to start them as they have some tough matchups.

Wide Receivers

Desean Jackson, if you are in a PPR league, Jackson may be an every week start as they try to give him the ball a lot.  He had 9 targets and the majority were in the first half. 

Guys to get back in the mix this week, a lot of people are down on James Jones and Eric Decker, but they should be back in the mix.  Decker had 7 targets and had a very bad game, but expect that to change as Julius Thomas will not be as open this week and Peyton will try to work him in to the game plan.  James Jones is a big physical receiver that can run a good route, expect him to get to the end zone this weekend.

Stay Away

Torrey Smith,  Joe Haden will be covering him and he tends to eat people up.  Just ask Mike Wallace.  Enough said.

Anquan Boldin, I love this guy and I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised this year, but if you have better options, go with them.  Boldin will most likely have Sherman draped on him with a linebacker underneath. He is big and physical and will catch a few, but don't expect last week to happen again in Seattle.

Tight End

Tony Gonzales, I know he is obvious, but I just wanted to mention as Roddy and Julio may both be out and then there will be nobody else to throw to. Could be a monster game as you saw with Brady and Edelman, you have to throw to somebody.

Jared Cook, love this guy so I just wanted to mention him again. 

Sleepers

Most of the time I go with receivers here as quarterbacks and running backs are far and few.  Each team only starts one quarterback, which makes it tough to find a sleeper.  Although Josh Freeman, who I don't like a lot should get some consideration this week as going against New Orleans, he will be throwing a lot and could put up some big fantasy points in a likely loss.  There were a few guys that had big games last week that I don't think will become a trend.  Simpson from Minnesota is the third option, so I would wait and see if he does it for a couple of weeks before wasting a spot on him.  Hartline in Miami has had those types of games before, but realize Haden took Wallace out of the game which forced more targets his way.  Speaking of Haden, that brings me to my first guys.

Marlon Brown and Dallas Clark,  these guys should benefit from Haden covering Mr. Smith.  Expect a lot of targets as Cleveland will probably do a good job against the run and with Jim Caldwell loving Flacco passing the ball as he threw 62 times last week, expect some big numbers from these 2 guys.  Big PPR guys this week.

Leonard Hankerson, if you have some room on deep benches go pick this guy up as he will either have a huge year or an awful year.  Hold on to him for a couple of weeks because you should know by then and it will be no harm no foul. He is a big and fast target that RGIII seems to like.  You will be pleasantly surprised by this guy.  They are also playing against Green Bay and could be down a good amount.

Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts, not really sleepers as they are fairly well known, but they are not every week starters either.  If Fitzgerald does not go, Michael Floyd gets moved into my wide receiver start section over Desean Jackson.  Andre Roberts is a PPR guy that gets a lot of targets, still hesitant to start in a regular league with these 2 guys in front of him.

Harry Douglas, possibly no Julio or Roddy against a pass happy team in St. Louis.  If these guys don't go, get Douglas and start because not every throw can go to Tony Gonzales.

Defense

Baltimore,  I expect these guys to be ready to go as they looked beyond pathetic last week.  Home opener for them and they have Cleveland coming up who is not an offensive juggernaut. 

Week 2 Suicide Picks

For the sake of seeing how I would actually do in a suicide pool, I am going to declare one team as my true suicide pick as if I was doing one for the year.  All 3 of my picks won last week, 2 of them were fairly close as Indy and New England really took it to the wire.  If anybody took my riskier week one pick, they were happily surprised as Kansas City never looked close to losing that game. Since my lock was New England, I am going to use them as my pick for last week and I will not be able to use them as my true pick for the rest of the season.  I can still use them in this column, just not as the main pick.  Let's move on to week 2 and see what we have.

Pick of the week:

Houston Texans,  I am not really confident about this pick, but Tennessee is coming off a big opening day road win over the Steelers and their very inept offense, which I think will make this a comedown game for them.  The Titans are going to be better than they were last year but they couldn't run last week and I think that trend will continue this week.  That being said, they will not be able to score too much against this defense and I don't think they will be able to slow down the Texans enough to win, especially in Houston. 

Who else do I like:

Baltimore Ravens, The Cleveland Browns are coming to town and this game is always closer than expected.  This time, the Ravens are coming off a game in which they were down right man handled.  They are known for their defense and that might have been the worst game this defense has played in a long, long time.  I am sure they heard about that all week and this defense is going to come more than prepared for this one.  Normally, this is a much bigger game for the Browns and the Ravens play down to Cleveland and keep them in the game.  Not this week, expect the Ravens to play like it is the playoffs this week and get a big win in their home opener.

 New Orleans,  Usually I stay away from New Orleans on the road, but they will be ready to go as Sean Payton and company know they need this division game to create as much separation with Atlanta as possible.  Tampa is coming off a really bad loss, but they don't have enough offense to compete with Brees and company.  Even with the additions of Revis and Goldson in the off season, Brees has plenty of other spots to throw to. 

Stay away:

Atlanta, they lost last week in a big game vs their divison rival, New Orleans, and they are playing at home, but I still think St. Louis may be for real this year.  Jeff Fisher has been at the helm for a bit and has changed the culture and the offense is looking pretty good.  Sam Bradford has a lot of new toys and he has been going to them fairly often as Jared Cook should have probably had 3 touchdowns last week if not for the honey badger knocking the ball out of his hands on the 2 yard line.  Tavon Austin is just getting comfortable and should start becoming more and more involved. Not saying that the Rams will win, but there are better games out there.

Week 1 Fantasy Thoughts

Much like my suicide picks, fantasy in the first week is tough and I tend to go with what has worked and hope for the best.  If you drafted well, you should feel confident going with your main guys and start adjusting week 2.  You can't draft 2 running backs in the first 4 rounds and take a chance with Isaac Redman that you drafted in the 13th round, because you think it is a good matchup despite not seeing their opponent yet.  At any rate, I will give you who I think should do well and see if I can conjure up a couple of sleepers in case you auto picked a bunch of kickers and defenses and you have a bunch of no name receivers.

Running Backs

Alfred Morris, now I am not a huge fan of these guys who get a ton of carries as they tend to wear down and very rarely have consecutive good seasons due to the wear and tear, but when they are playing an uptempo team like the Eagles, it is a different story.  This could be the perfect storm for Morris owners as he should get the bulk of the carries as they probably don't want RGIII carrying the rock too much.  The Redskins game plan will probably be too run a lot to keep the ball away from Chip and company and one thing I do know is that the Eagles defense is not meant to stop the run, so enjoy 140 yards and at least 1 touchdown.

Steven Jackson,  I would probably never have drafted Mr. Jackson, but a week 1 start against New Orleans would be a good bet.  This should be an offensive minded game as the Saints have been waiting to get their skipper back.  Payton will push the envelope and the falcons will have their own attack but may look to keep the Saints off the field by running this tank as long as he has fuel left.  Should gain some yards and they may not have to take him off in third down situations as they did, with Michael Turner, as he has pretty good hands, an added bonus for PPR leagues.

Doug Martin,  playing against the lowly Jets, Martin should get a boat load of carries as Schiano knows the only way to lose this game is by getting risky.  They will play it safe and give this guy the ball a ton.  Should have a big day.

Stay away from Ahmad Bradshaw until you know he will be getting the majority of carries as Vick Ballard may even start this one.  Too much risk to go with either.  Once Bradshaw is ready to go, give him the green light. 

Defense

Tampa Bay, I like these guys to have a great game and I was lucky enough to pick them up personally.  They are playing the Jets and have recently picked up Revis and Dashon Goldson, which should make for an interesting day for Geno Smith.  Indianapolis is in a similar situation playing the Raiders, but they don't have the players to make the same type of plays.  Don't get me wrong you could do worse, but I would rather go with the Chiefs against the Jaguars than the Colts.

Wide Receiver

Tavon Austin,  this will be my sleeper of the week as I just want to reiterate that it seems the Rams have been playing possum with this guy in the preseason.  If you are in a PPR league, he should be your number 2 receiver.

That is it for week 1 as we will let the week play out and we can begin to see who is who to some degree.  I will let the guys that get paid make up all of these crazy rankings based on rosters from last year filled up of guys that are not in the league anymore or on other teams.  Good luck in your first week!

Suicide Picks for Week 1

Anybody who has read this blog knows how I feel about week 1 suicide picks and might already know that I usually go with what always works.  Don't overthink the room week 1 because once you lose you are out.  The goal is to get to the following week so until you can get a true feel of who's who as it changes every year (I don't think anybody thought the Colts, Redskins and Seahawks would have made playoffs with rookie quarterbacks), stick with the year in year out teams.  On to the picks.

Tried and True

Stay safe and go with this guy or
try your luck with Luck, he
is a pretty safe pick as well.

New England Patriots, I basically pick this team almost every year as a week 1 as it is the toughest week.  Regardless of the situation at receiver, Belichick and company find a way to beat EJ Manuel and the Buffalo Bills.  I think Manuel could turn out to be pretty good but Billy Boy always gives rookie quarterbacks a tough time, just ask Andrew Luck.  Safest pick as far as I am concerned.

Indianapolis Colts,  The Colts are at home against Terrelle Pryor and the Oakland Raiders.  Not that I think the Colts will be as good as last year, but I think the Oakland Raiders are basically phoning it in for the year going with Pryor at quarterback.  This should be a pretty safe pick as Luck has a year under his belt and should be able to take this one pretty easily.

A Little Bit Risky

Kansas City Chiefs, Andy Reid in his first game as coach of the new look Chiefs will travel to Jacksonville and take on Gus Bradley, in his first game as head coach.  I like Bradley and it seems like the Jaguars are trying to turn it around, but I have to think that with this offensive line improving, Jamal Charles running the ball and Alex Smith playing mistake free football should be enough.  The Chiefs defense is better than people think and I like these guys to make a run at going .500 this year.

Stay Away

Seattle Seahawks, I like Seattle but there will be plenty of opportunities to take these guys this year.  Going to Carolina and playing a wild card like Cam Newton in the opener is a gamble.  You could luck out but there are better options than this one and more important, safer ones.  Remember the goal is to get to week 2 and live to fight another day.

Houston Texans, in the last game of the NFL weekend, the Texans will travel to San Diego and take on the new look Chargers.  Phillip Rivers, coming off a pretty bad year, will look to make his mark this year.  The Norv Turner era has ended and the Chargers will be rejuvenated and I would like to see what they are made of.  Monday night home underdogs are a tough to go against on week 1.

Possible Fantasy Sleepers

As a follow up to my blog reserved for players I considered under valued in this year's fantasy draft, here is my fantasy sleeper and breakthrough edition.  I am usually good to nail one or two of these a couple of weeks into the season (past editions have included Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker and Antonio Brown) that will truly enhance your lineup, but I will take a shot now, just in case you have a couple of spots on your roster that you might have wasted or if auto pick drafted 2 kickers for you. 

The biggest position is usually wide receivers due to the amount that will actually line up during a given game.  Running backs is usually going to be due to an injury and it will usually be known well ahead of time, so I will usually consider breakthrough players for this position.

Let us hope that Alshon
will do less standing around
this year.

Wide Receivers

Alshon Jeffrey, I am keeping my Bear offense crush going by going with the #2 receiver in the offense.  Alshon is a big receiver that was a beast at South Carolina against the best DB's in the country.  He came in last year a bit overweight and did not contribute too much, but there seems to be some buzz about him this year and he will get plenty of opportunities opposite Brandon Marshall facing the majority of the coverage and Martellus Bennett taking care of the middle of the field.  Throw Matt Forte as another option and defenses are going to have a hard time covering everybody.  Receivers tend to get it a bit more in their second year, so this is a guy that can be started in really deep leagues with 10 or 12 teams and 2 flex spots.  If not, I would wait the first couple of weeks and see if he pans out.

DeAndre Hopkins,  similar to much of what I said about Alshon, except this guy can really stretch the field.  He has Andre Johnson on the opposite end and Owen Daniels keeping defenses busy.  DeAndre is a rookie and is in an offense that stresses run over pass so he is a few steps behind Alshon in my opinion but worth a pickup if you have some veterans that you have already seen what they can do and their is no upside to them.  You can always drop him after 3 games (wait at least 3 to see if he is improving or becoming bigger part of the offense).

Tavon Austin, I was much higher on this guy a few months back and I think much like Randall Cobb, it will take him a year to become an important part of the offense.  If you are in a ppr league he is worth a flyer as he may turn into a 6 or 7 catch guy that is able to break one at any time.  Don't love him in standard leagues as he may get you 50 yards a game and be more involved in the return game.  Once this guy gets it, he will be the next Percy Harvin.  Let's just hope he can stay on the field when that time comes and if you have him on your team, let's hope that it is sooner rather than later.

Tight Ends

Jared Cook, this will revolve specifically around Sam Bradford's comfort level.  I am pretty high on Bradford taking a step towards becoming a very good quarterback and if he is ready, Cook could be in for a big year.  I think that he will become a tight end that will become a week in week out starter.  If you have Greg Olson, Antonio Gates, Kyle Rudolph or Owen Daniels and room on your bench, pick this guy up as insurance.  He is a big target that is tough to cover, the Titans are going to wish they kept him.  I should consider this guy a break through, but since he did not seem to be drafted as much, I need to put him on this list.

Tyler Eifert, I would not look to start Tyler too early but I think he will have a similar year to Kyle Rudolph did as a rookie.  He is very tough to cover and he is going to a similar offense in Cincinnati that he was in at Stanford.  Give him some time and keep looking at him from week to week as you may be able to see the progress before anybody else does and snatch him just in case you need to make a change.

Running Back

Shane Vereen, this is specifically for ppr leagues as Vereen should see plenty of opportunity to catch balls out of the backfield.  There is a reason that the Patriots let Woodhead, a fan favorite, go to San Diego.  Vereen is very good in space and now that he is been in the offense, we can expect to see big improvement.  Don't really like him in standard leagues.  Even if Ridley was to get hurt I would not expect him to get the bulk of the carries as they would give Legarrette Blount a fair share in my opinion. 

Underrated Fantasy Players

The fantasy season has been upon us as the majority of people have by now had their draft.  For the first time in a couple of years, I have jumped back into a league myself, which is why I am waiting until now to do a fantasy preview of sorts.  The first blog will pertain to players that I feel that are not getting enough love.  Every year there are players that are written off too early as they still have gas left in the tank and end up having a very good season.  There are others that maybe something has changed with the offense and they are being unfairly written off due to that.  This blog is going to contain those players in my opinion.  For the record, I missed out on many of these in my recent draft, so don't feel bad if you did as well.  In the heat of the draft when you only have 1:30, it is sometimes difficult to process these value guys.

Running Backs

This is a position that is becoming more and more scarce to find good week in week out starters.  If you have not drafted, let me start by saying I would focus on this position first as you will be able to get quarterbacks and wide receivers later.  Your first 2 picks should be on running backs unless, the best of the best fall to you as a great value in another position.



Bradshaw being drafted too low

Ahmad Bradshaw, the average draft pick of this guy is 92 in Yahoo leagues.  This is absolute insanity as far as I am concerned as when he is given the carries, he has always done well.  He is known to have injuries from time to time, but even if he ends up starting 12 games, he would be well worth it this far down considering how scarce the position is.  One of t
he most important factors to weigh as well as that Andrew Luck's old offensive coordinator from Stanford is taking the reigns from Bruce Arians.  That is going to mean a very un-NFL like reliance on the running game.  If you get Bradshaw as a third running back, consider yourself lucky.

David Wilson,  Mr. Wilson will be the New York Giants running back at all times even around the goal line, now the Andre Brown broke his leg, which even without talent should make him a higher pick than the average 57th that he is being drafted according to Yahoo leagues.  Wilson, has shown enough talent that the Giants had no problem saying good bye to Bradshaw, who despite injuries has been productive for them.  Good luck to NFL defenses trying to cover their receivers and commit to the running game as well.  Should have a very good year as long as he stays healthy.

Rashard Mendenhall, not a huge fan of this guy, but he is averaging a draft pick of 103.  This is a guy that was easily worth drafting as he has great upside with Carson Palmer now running the offense.  For some reason, people easily equate that Palmer will make Fitzgerald a better fantasy pick, but they do not think that will carry over to the running game as well.  If defenses will now be more worried about Fitzgerald and company, this should make more room for Mendenhall.  I would expect that he should be good for at least 800 yards and 8 touchdowns, which for a 10th round pick seems to be great value.

Wide Receivers

Andre Johnson, how in the world is Andre Johnson falling this much.  The average pick for this guy is 31.  Are you kidding me?  I am in this as well as I did not pick him and I regret it now.  We sometimes look at what is ranked and forget to go with our gut.  This dude is a freak, that just in case anybody cared, had over 110 catches and almost 1600 yards last season.  Enough said, I am distraught about this one.

Antonio Brown, in reality the average pick for this guy is around 53 right behind Welker, which is not terrible.  It seems that many people are down on him verbally, when I think the fact that Mike Wallace being gone is going to only makes him more important.  Brown can stretch the field and make the tough third down catch.  Should have a lot of targets.

Sidney Rice, I don't think that he will have insane numbers but in deep leagues he could easily be a third or fourth receiver.  He had almost 800 yards and 7 touchdowns with Russell Wilson only being a rookie.  I think that as Wilson starts to go downfield more as he gains experience, Rice could have a bigger year.  The main reason for him being on the list is that his average pick is 115.  This guy would be worth the flyer.

Quarterbacks

Michael Vick, the average pick is 104.  Barring injury, which is tough to say as he does get injured quite a bit, he should really take advantage of this offense.  He is on the downside as he has some wear and tear, but being picked this deep as most likely a backup, he could end up

Vick should be a good later round pick
in this new Chip Kelley offense

being a starter down the road for most fantasy teams.  Chip Kelley runs a faster offense than New England and that makes it very difficult for defenses.  If he stays healthy, he should have a good year, I would expect 25-30 total touchdowns if he plays all 16 games, which is truly the big question mark.

Joe Flacco, it is true that he lost a couple of his toys, but people are failing to see the change with Jim Caldwell taking over the offense.  Flacco's production has gone up as he throws downfield a lot more.  He still has some capable receivers in Torrey Smith (avg pick 46) and Jacoby Jones.  So we don't mind taking Smith fairly high, but we are picking Flacco behind Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill.  Okay!

Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford:  These are the last 4 quarterbacks being taken.  Outside of Carson Palmer, who is fairly old at this point and hasn't shown us too much, the rest of these guys could easily be your 2nd quarterback, but you are getting great value out these guys as a third.  Sam Bradford is a lot more comfortable and with Jeff Fisher at the helm, means he is good enough as he would have got rid of him if he wasn't.  He has more tools and should do very well this year.  Jay Cutler now has Marc Trestman (I like the whole bears offense this year) , who is very offensive minded and should help corral Cutler's errors. Phillip Rivers should get back to basics after a pretty bad year now that he has a new coach and low expectations.  I like all of these guys in comparison to where they are being drafted.

Later on I will go on to give my sleeper picks.

Alabama is Beatable!

Much like Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, there were thought to be no weaknesses regarding this year's Alabama Crimson Tide.  They were all but assured a third straight national championship without even having to go on the field, and let me say I was one of those assuring it.  After watching last night's game, a couple of things are obvious, one is that this maybe one of the best defenses we have seen in a long time, and the other is that this offensive line has its work cut out for itself this year.  The offense only gained 206 yards in last night's otherwise convincing 35-10 win over Virginia Tech, in Alabama mind you.  AJ McCarron threw for 110 yards on a subpar 10-23 performance, while TJ Yeldon gained 75 yards on 17 carries, many times being hit in the backfield as he got the ball. 
This is something that Nick Saban can probably fix, but he only has a couple of weeks to fix it against a team that will be able to slow this offense down and might have an answer to this unbelievable defense. 

Johnny Football hosts Bama
in a couple of weeks.

Texas A&M and their Heisman winning quarterback host Alabama in a game that before last night I would have thought Alabama would win by 30, in a couple of weeks.  That game is now going to have a much different betting line in my opinion as the best answer to a very good, disciplined defense is an unorganized offense led by a playmaker.  Not that he looked great in his less than a half of football, as he was too busy making his signature money sign and jawing with the Rice defenders, pointing at scoreboard, which got him put on the bench on the way to a 52-31 victory, he looked like somebody that could be the answer to this defense.  More important, is that he might be able to score enough, while the defense follows the footprint set forth last night by Virginia Tech.  Stop the Yeldon running attack and force McCarron to beat you.  Alabama got 2 return touchdowns from an exciting Christian Jones and their defense played very well against an okay offense, but I am not sure that it will be enough in 2 weeks.  One thing is certain, if Alabama does not fix their offense, there is no way they go undefeated through the SEC.  Mark my words.