Fantasy Options for Championship Week

We are finally here, it is time for championship week and hopefully ATP will be able to help you out.  Let's get right to what the few of you that are left want to hear about.

Must Start


Drum roll please.....Tim Tebow, I know I just wrote a blog complaining about him but this is fantasy football and he is a good start, plain and simple.  He is playing a game that they need to win and playing a very poor run defense in the Buffalo Bills.  He should be good for at least 2 touchdowns and wouldn't be strange to see three out of him.

Matty Ice will
need to be on point
against Brees

Phillip Rivers and Matt Stafford,  this is a big game for both and they should be doing  a fair amount of throwing.  Expect at least 2 touchdowns out of both and maybe even more.

Cedric Benson,  give him the rock and let him roll with it.  I have been riding this guy lately and he has been doing okay, but not great.  Should get a touchdown tomorrow though.

Brandon Marshall, going against the Patriots with Matt Moore rolling right now, this is a very good option.  He is the main threat and he will get a lot of looks as this will probably be a high scoring affair if the weather holds.

Matt Ryan and Roddy White, these guys will have to keep up Brees and Company in New Orleans.  That is a good sign that they will be throwing the ball a ton and are very good options.  Julio Jones is in the mix as well and should get some end zone looks.

Gambles


Eli Manning, the Jets need this game and there is no way that they are going to make it easy for him.  On the flip side, the Giants need this game as well and there are a lot of options for the Jets to cover.  If you have a better or an equal option, you may want to go with it.

Mark Sanchez,  I would like to put him as an upgraded gamble as I consider him a better option than Eli Manning.  He should do fairly well, I just don't want to give him elite status as a must start in this type of game.

AJ Green, having a great year and he is a bit injured.  He will also be going up against a familiar foe from the SEC, which is Patrick Peterson who went to LSU while AJ was at Georgia.  If you are desperate, you can probably start this guy as he is their go to guy, but if you have a bunch of equal options, you may opt to go that route.

Willis McGahee,  keep an eye on his injured hamstring, but going against his old team could be a huge motivator.  Tebow scoring a lot of the rushing touchdowns doesn't help either, but could be a great option if he is healthy.


Don't Start


Peyton Hillis, I know he had a good week last week, but don't expect a repeat performance.  He is going against a pissed off Raven defense in Baltimore.  Good luck with all of that.

Marshawn Lynch, his streak of ten games in a row with a touchdown will most likely come to an end tomorrow as the 49ers are coming to town.  I don't even consider this guy a gamble.

Beanie Wells,  going against the Bengals, not a good idea in a championship game.  You are in the championship if you are reading this, so I assume you have a better option.

Good luck this week and I hope ATP has helped out this year and more important, that we help you tomorrow.

John Skelton Should Start Thanking GOD in his Post Game Conferences

I find it pretty funny that Tebow mania has taken the world by storm but you can barely sniff out a story east of the Mississippi about John Skelton.  I mean the guy went 2-2 as a starter last year, Tebow went 1-2. Skelton is 5-1 as a starter, Tebow is 7-2 this year.  The big difference between the two, besides the fact that nobody is talking about Skelton, is that Skelton is winning games by throwing the ball.  He does not have the defense that Denver does, so he just can't hand the ball off or run it himself to win games and so far so good.  This guy is getting better and better, yet the only thing we hear about is Tebow.  When will this guy get his due, outside of 2 bad starts against a very good San Fran defense and a not so good St. Louis defense, Skelton has thrown for 300 yards in 2 starts and 280 in another.  Time to start paying attention to SkeltonMania!

By the way people, nobody said that Tebow couldn't win, they said he couldn't throw and he has not done a ton to show me different at this point.  I do think he has gotten a little bit better, but he hasn't shown me flashes of Brady or Brees.  Once a quarterback starts winning games with his arm, he will start being taken more seriously, unless his name is John Skelton!

There is no Blueprint to Beat the Packers

People need to relax with the idea that the Chiefs created a blueprint to beat the Packers.  First off, the Chiefs are an NFL team, which means that they can beat anybody. At times they show they can play some great defense and they are very tough to play in Kansas City.  Most players will say how tough it is to play there when the fans are rocking.  The Packers have a great offense and have the potential to play great defense, but it does not mean they are unbeatable.  Eventually, everybody falls off the bus because it is too difficult to stay healthy and beat a team of paid NFL players.  If you are on a roster, you are a very talented individual regardless of what we think watching from our couches.

Rodgers missed his buddy last week!

I should get to the main point, which a lot of people do not realize.  Greg Jennings was hurt for this game.  People are undervaluing this injury because we live in a fantasy football world where we see Jordy Nelson throw up gaudy numbers, James Jones, Donald Driver all get into the act as well. We figure they have enough receivers they can easily fill in.  Earlier this year I mentioned that Jordy Nelson was the better fantasy option from that point.  I also stated that it does not mean that he is better than Greg Jennings.  Last weekend clearly illustrates my point.  A big reason the Packer offense did not look like it usually does is the fact that defenses usually roll coverage to Greg Jennings side, meaning he gets a lot of double coverage to him.  This makes Jordy Nelson a great option as he will usually have the number 2 cornerback going one on one with him.  Without Jennings on the field, defenses now have an extra guy on defense more or less to cover good receivers but not great.  The Chiefs defense has some good players including Brandon Flowers, who is a top 5 cornerback in my book.  He was a good reason the Packer receivers including Nelson, did not do much last week.  It did not help that the Packer's line is becoming rapidly decimated very quickly.

At any rate, that loss does not make them a team that has a blueprint to beat them.  It shows that every team is beatable.  That being said, I have been making the case privately to friends that Drew Brees and the Saints are quietly becoming the best team and player in the league without much fanfare until this Packer loss.  Now it is being talked about a little more.  It seems that the Saints should hope that Jennings does not come back any time soon, because they will have to beat Green Bay in Green Bay, which I don't think would happen against a healthy Packer team.  The Saints are terrible on the road.

Fantasy Options for Week 15

The playoffs have officially began in about 98% of the leagues, but there are still some that use weeks 16 and 17 as their playoffs, but the majority are entrenched at the moment.  Let's hope that ATP can bring you into the championship game.

Must Start


Cedric Benson,  Benson is going against the Rams this week, who seem to allow running backs to go out and have career games.  Expect Benson to get at least 100 yards and at least one touchdown, maybe two.

Shonn Greene,  he has been ramping it up lately and the Jets are going into Philly, where they know they will want to keep the ball out of Vick's hands.  Expect Greene to get a lot of touches and at least 2 touchdowns.

Felix Jones,  he needs to make the most of this opportunity as he who knows what will happen for Jones going into next year unless he wants to be a third down back.  Tampa Bay has been awful against the run, so expect more of the same tonight as Jones should have a good game.

Reggie Bush, here is a guy that everybody said couldn't handle the load.  They said after the first game of the year, against a Patriot defense that went in looking to stop the run and let Henne throw for 400 yards, that he isn't an every down back.  Now look at him as he hasn't even been the main option in every game, he is on pace for 1,000 yards while averaging 4.6 yards a carry.  Feel free to start him against a bad Buffalo run defense.  By the way, somebody foresaw this and here is the link:

http://allthingspigskin.blogspot.com/2011/05/i-am-reggie-bush-apologist.html

Chris Johnson, I think the Colts will try to gear up and stop him, but I don't see it happening as they won't be able to score enough to make the Titans have to throw like they did last week.  Expect him to get 20-25 carries and at least a score.

Beanie Wells,  going against the 31st ranked run defense Cleveland Browns.  Enough said.


Gambles

Tebow Time?

Tim Tebow,  I would make him a must start, but I have a slight suspicion that this is a showcase game for Belichick and this defense.  When it comes to these types of games, he seems to have something ready for the opposing offenses.  Then again this could be totally wrong and the same old Patriot defense will be out there and if that is the case, expect 2 or 3 touchdowns out of Tebow as they will have to keep up with Brady and company.

Kyle Orton,  if you need somebody in a hurry, this could be your guy as I expect them to be down and Orton will be throwing from behind, which could get you a couple of garbage touchdowns.  I expect at least 2 and maybe more if they are getting blown out.


Dalton and Green, the Bengals need a win and these two keep hooking up.  The reason I don't have them as a must start is that I expect the Bengals to run a good amount.  I like Green more than Dalton and Green for all intents and purposes should be a must start.

Seneca Wallace, if you really need somebody in a pinch.  Wallace always seems to come into games and do well.  He can run as well, which could give you a few extra points.  Could get you at least 2 touchdowns in a pinch.  Would advise for a 2 quarterback league.  If you need him for a 1 quarterback league, you are most likely not in the playoffs.

Don't start

Steven Jackson, going against a stingy Bengal run defense.  He might get you a lucky touchdown, but don't count on it as the Bengals really need to win this game.

CJ Spiller, going against a good run defense for Miami.  I would not want this guy in my lineup for the playoffs.

Gambler's Corner for week 15

ATP decided to mail it in last week with the 3 team tease call, but it worked out perfectly as somebody I know actually bet the 3 team tease and then hedged it by taking the opposing 3 teams getting the points.  The result was a win on the 3 team tease and then 2 of the 3 opposing teams covered in the window as well.  So it was a good week for the unnamed person from last week.  This week looks even worse as I don't even like any 3 teams to tease.  I am not sure if Tennessee has any healthy quarterbacks and they are playing in Indy, who desperately needs a win.  The Saints are maybe the worst road team in the history of good teams in the NFL, so giving 7 on the road to anybody scares me.  Tebow vs Brady, we have no idea what to do with that one.  In my opinion, I think that the Broncos are going to be able to score some points this week, but missing so many guys in the defensive backfield is trouble when you are playing Tom Brady.  No matter what I pick this week, I am truly hoping to go .500 as these are tough picks this week.

My first pick of the week, drumroll please.... will be a monday night special.  I like the San Diego Chargers getting 2.5 points at home vs the Baltimore Ravens.  December Chargers are starting to liven up and the Ravens are right behind the Saints when it comes to playing on the road as they are a different team.  Rivers will be able to take advantage of this Raven secondary and I think they come out with a straight out victory in this one.

There are a lot of people that are against me with this one, but I like the Detroit Lions who are giving one to go to Oakland and get the win.  They are favored by one and I think with Mr. Suh coming back, that defense will be ready to stop whoever is in the backfield this week.  This one doesn't count but I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go over the 47.5 as well.

My 2 picks for the week are San Diego and the Detroit Lions both fighting for their playoff lives and I think they are good picks.  If you don't feel safe taking them straight up, you can always tease them with the over in the Detroit game as well.  I might substitute the Redskins for the Lions in a 3 team tease though.  I don't see the Giants winning by more than 16, but you never know.  Good luck this week!

Fantasy Options for Week 14

This is a big week for many as the playoffs will be decided or officially start for some leagues.  So ATP will do their best to get the best available options for  you.    Just to clear the air, when I post that you can start any New Orleans receiver that means that they are all good options.  They are not a bunch that I like to pick individually as they are all streaky and when they play on the road, Brees and company are a very different team when they are not at home.  This week, I would not suggest any of the receivers as I don't think they are a sure thing.  I would feel safe starting Colston on an every week basis, but even he isn't consistent.  Graham is maybe the second best fantasy tight end and is the only must start in my opinion.
Enough of that and let us move on to this week's picks.

Must Start

I am going to start with a few defenses as their are a lot of good options.  The first defense is the Denver Broncos as they are playing the Bears, who are in a death spiral and have decided to stick with Caleb Hanie, with Donovan McNabb out on the market.  The Bears might not win a game the rest of the way with this offense.  Von Miller is back in all likelihood, who is an absolute game changer and should win defensive rookie of the year, with Aldon Smith and Patrick Peterson trailing him.  Look for a good amount of sacks as well.

I won't mention Baltimore, because it is obvious.  I like the Jets against the Chiefs, which might seem obvious but they have not played as well as you would have hoped this year.  This week will be the usual Jets and they are a must start.

MJD, this poor guy has faced an army in the box every week and still produces with a smile on his face despite all the losses.  Should have a big game this week at home vs Tampa's poor run defense.

Josh Freeman, look for Freeman to get back on track this week against a poor pass defense.  The Jaguars have done a good job against the run, but have suffered in the defensive backfield since Rashean Mathis got injured.  Mike Williams should do fairly well also.

Phillip Rivers, who has been on this list for 2 weeks in a row and showed why he should be last Monday night.  Expect much of the same this week as Buffalo's awful pass defense is coming.  They might pick a couple off though.

Marshawn Lynch, the Skittles Guy is playing well and expect it to continue this week against the Lowly Rams, who have been challenged against the run all season.

Gambles

Reggie Bush, this is a good gamble and would usually be a must start as the Eagles have been terrible against the run. I think we will see a different Eagle team with Vick back, so this might not be a can't miss.

Desean Jackson,  I know everything that is being said, but I expect him to come out shooting in this game and Vick will try and get him the ball early and often.  I realize this is a good defense, but I will take my chances, hopefully they don't lock Vontae Davis on him all game.

LeGarrette Blount, this is a gamble this week as the Jaguars usually do a good job against the run.  Blount is very inconsistent and he a pretty bad game last week, so this could turn out to be a good one despite the defense.

Pierre Garcon,  I know they are playing the Ravens, but Orlovsky seems to like this guy and they will need to throw as they won't be able to run against this defense.

Rex Grossman,  I like this kid's moxie lately and they are playing the worst pass defense, so give it a go. It is still Rex Grossman, so it is hard to make him a must start, but this is as close as it will get for him as I expect them to be down fairly quickly tomorrow.

Don't Start

Beanie Wells, has been doing okay of late, but the 49ers are coming to town and they don't allow rushing touchdowns, so sorry but no thanks this week.

Anybody on the Chiefs, which really only means don't start Dwayne Bowe as he will be blanketed by Revis.

Cedric Benson, the Texans' defense realizes they have to win games as they are not putting up the points they are used to.  The key to stopping the Bengals will be Cedric Benson, so they will stop him and put it on Dalton's shoulders.

Gambler's Corner Roundup for week 14

After tallying up the grand totals on the year, ATP is very close to what the professionals are hitting at.  ATP is hitting at a little bit over 55% where the best professionals average between 57% and 58%.  We are in the ballpark, which is all we can ask.  We are going to chicken out this week and go with a 3 team tease, which only counts as one bet.  We are 1-1 on the season with these so far, but I feel very good about it this time.  I don't feel good about the individual bets, so I am going to go this route.

The first game in the 3 team tease is to take New England, which will be a pick over the Redskins.  They are going to Washington knowing they have to keep up with Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore for a shot at home field advantage and a bye.  The Redskins have been playing some good defense and even look alright offensively with Rex Grossman under center, but I just can't see Brady and company losing a game like this.  Belichick will throw a lot of different looks at Grossman and he will do okay, but I don't think they will score with the Patriots.  I don't think the Patriots cover the 9 points though, which is why I like the tease.

I also like the New York Jets at home against the KC Chiefs.  As of right now, the Jets will be favored by 1.5 points.  They are very Jekyll and Hyde, but they have been playing good at the end of the past few seasons and they know how big of a game this is for them as they are fighting for a playoff spot right now.  I think Sanchez plays good enough to get a win as the defense will carry them in this one.

Discount Double Check Time!

I am torn on this last one as I am wrestling between Green Bay over Oakland giving 2.5 or Detroit over Minnesota giving one.  They are both at home, so that doesn't really play into it.  I worry about Green Bay and the pressure building up over an undefeated season.  Detroit is playing without Mr. Suh, but Christian Ponder is questionable at the moment.  When all else fails, go with discount double check.  I am going to go with the Green Bay Packers giving 2.5 over Oakland.  It is a 4:15 game, so you will know if your first 2 games have already covered.  If that is the case feel free to take Oakland getting 11.5 and hedge your bet.  I would throw maybe a third of your tease bet, so $33 if your tease is a $100 bet.  You might even get lucky and hit both if Oakland loses by a margin between 2.5 and 11.5 points.

Good luck with your wagers and let the green roll in!

Alabama should not get a Shot at National Title

I know this sounds crazy as I do think they are one of the best 2 teams in college right now.  Right there I am kind of killing my own argument, but here me out on this one.  What happens if Alabama beats LSU?  Can you really crown them national champion?  They lost to LSU at home already.  I would have a tough time naming either of them national champion.  The worst part of this scenario is that I think Alabama is better than LSU and outplayed them in their prior meeting.  They couldn't hit their field goals and they now have to live with that. 

Alabama getting a rematch against LSU would not give you a true national champion, therefore let Oklahoma State get a shot.  I know they lost to Iowa State in a 2 overtime game, but at least if LSU beats them we can say we have a true national champion.  If Oklahoma State wins and Alabama murders whoever they play...Well, let's worry about that only if it happens.  Right now, I am putting my vote in for LSU vs Oklahoma State.  By the way, the Cowboys can put up some points and would make for a fun game to watch in my opinion. 

Fantasy Options for Week 13

It is getting ready for crunch time and playoff spots are to be won and lost in many leagues this week as it is the last in some leagues with the majority of fantasy regular seasons ending next week.  Let's see if ATP can help out as it has done fairly well lately with its picks.

Must Start

Dare I start with CJ1K, as that is the only thing Chris Johnson can hope for.  Coming off a big 190 yard game and now going against a pretty bad Buffalo defense, this cat is a must start.

LeGarrette Blount, going against Carolina with reports of injury to Josh Freeman, I would expect a lot of carries for this guy.  Carolina run defense is not very good, so it should be a pretty good day for him.

The Patriot Offense, pretty much every body should get into the act on this one.  The Patriots have not been known to slow down with a big lead, so expect at least 30 something points, with everybody having a shot to score.

Saints and Lions receivers,  Stafford and Brees should be throwing aplenty tonight and the respective receivers from each team should reap the rewards.  Feel free to start any legitimate threat, Meacham,  Titus Young are gambles, but could sneak in a score.  Colston, Moore, Megatron, Graham, Pettigrew, and Burleson should all get the start.

Packer and Giant receivers, much like above, I expect some points.  Feel free to start the main receivers from each team as they will get a lot of looks.

Gore to be off and running today!

Antonio Brown,  not sure if this guy has been picked up in all leagues, but he is slowly becoming the number one option over Mike Wallace in Pittsburgh.  Wallace will have coverage rolled over to him, with a lot of the attention and Brown will reap the benefits.

Frank Gore,  he should get back on track against a bad run defense for St. Louis.

Phillip Rivers,  look for Rivers to get back on track against the Jaguars Monday night.  Jacksonville has a pretty decent run defense, but struggle against the pass.  Should be a big game for Rivers.

Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson,  Arizona does not have the cornerbacks or pass rush to stop Romo and company.  Look for these guys to get a lot of looks and possibly put up some good numbers.

Gambles

Tim Tebow,  if you need a guy, this could be the week to start Tebow.  He should be able to manufacture at least 2 touchdowns this week in one form or another.  Not a big fan of him as someone to take a team to the promised land, but much like Cam Newton and Michael Vick, they make for great fantasy picks due to their running threat.

Matt Forte,  I know people need to start Forte, but if you had options, this could be the week to bench him.  Romeo Crennel has this defense playing well and with limited receiving options and Caleb Hanie playing for the Bears, you can expect the Chiefs to focus on Forte.

Arian Foster,  read what I said for Matt Forte except that the Texans have Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels as legitimate receiving threats.  Atlanta has a better run defense than the Chiefs and I would take Hanie over Yates, so that makes this a tie between Foster and Forte.

Andre Johnson,  same boat here as he will get a few more looks as they are playing the Falcons who can score some points as opposed to the Jaguars last week.  The Texans will open up the playbook, but with Yates throwing the ball, this is still a gamble.

Beanie Wells,  going against the Cowboys would have been a don't start, but with Kevin Kolb back that will take some pressure off of him and he should be able to run sometimes.  I would not start if I had better options though.

Reggie Wayne,  I know it sounds strange, but I almost want to put him in a must start for a ppr as the Patriots are awful against the pass.  If you need somebody, this could be the guy to go with.

Don't Start

Rashard Mendenhall,  going against a good Bengal run defense behind an offensive line that always seems to have injuries across the board.  Mendenhall is already having a bad year, it will probably stay that way.

Cedric Benson, going against the Steelers in a very big divisional game.  This is not the week to take chances as he has not been churning out the yards, most Benson owners have been relying on touchdowns, don't expect them this week.

Steven Jackson, going against a 49er defense that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown.  Enough said on this one.

Michael Bush, Miami does a good job against the run.  Expect the same today.

Gambler's Corner Roundup

ATP is riding high after our 3-0 run last weekend and we feel good about it this week as well.  So line up and get ready to make some money.

Denver at Minnesota (-1)

I am not a believer that Tebow is really the next big thing, but at the moment, he is helping this team win games with the help of a great defense and a good running game.  I just don't see how Christian Ponder without the assistance of Adrian Peterson can put up 20 points against this defense and I think that the Broncos do at least that, just by running on this defense.  Take Denver, they win straight up.

San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville

There is no way San Diego can keep losing like this. They are playing solid defense, running the ball, but they are not passing the ball well.  Something just doesn't seem right here.  I think that Norv Turner is finally on the way out, but Phillip Rivers comes back to life and they get a 10 point win in Jacksonville.

Atlanta (-3) at Houston

This is a tough one despite the fact that rookie TJ Yates is starting at quarterback for the Texans.  Houston has a good running game and playing some great defense right now.  Atlanta scares me when they don't play at home, so I am still going to go with the Falcons.  I know everything is going against me here, but Atlanta has a solid run defense, which is going to put it on Yates' shoulders.  I will take my chances but if you told me I will lose one of these picks, this is the one I would guess.

Montee Ball for Heisman?

I know that college is not highlighted on this blog, but I figured I would add this as it is driving me insane.  How in the world is Montee Ball from Wisconsin not being mentioned for the Heisman at all?  Russell Wilson, who is the Wisconsin quarterback was in the lead earlier in the season on some people's ballots including Lou Holtz, when they were undefeated.  Somehow, the running back who is second in the country in rushing behind some guy from Western Kentucky, which shouldn't really count, and has 34 touchdowns so far.  That was not a typo, he is 5 behind Barry Sander's record and should beat it with a division championship game against Michigan State, who ruined their title hopes and my gambling pick that week with a Hail Mary, and a bowl game.

Mr. Ball has barely been mentioned despite this and they are not even sure if he will be invited to New York for the ceremony.  What is going on here?  He plays at Wisconsin in the Big Ten, where the defenses are designed to stop the run.  Yet, this guy will end the season with close to 2,000 rushing yards if not over, and probably at least 40 touchdowns.  I love Trent Richardson and think he should be up there as well and much like Mark Ingram winning it over Toby Gerehart, which I also thought was wrong just look at the numbers and what Stanford did that year, I could live with that to some degree.  The problem here is that Montee Ball is barely being mentioned and Toby played in the Pac-10, not known for good run defense as most offenses are spread oriented.  At any rate, can somebody explain this farce to me as I just don't get it.  There should be some kind of national campaign like the politicians have where at the end Montee Ball states and I approve this message!

Can the Media stop Overrating the Giants

I think it is now beyond ridiculous to see that the media still over rates the New York Giants every year.  Yes, they show glimpses of solid football play, but they have shown us just that and nothing more.  We need only look at their schedule thus far to prove my point.

They started out 6-2 and beat the following teams:  St. Louis(2-9), Philly (4-7), Miami (3-8), Buffalo (5-6), Arizona (4-7) and New England (8-3).  They lost to the 49ers, Philly, Saints, Seahawks and the Redskins.  So out of this, we see what we see every week in the NFL, that any team can beat anybody on any Sunday.  I don't see a team that is dominant by any means.  I have went over the New England game and the horrible time management by the Patriots that shouldn't have allowed the Giants a chance to win.  The only convincing wins were over St. Louis and Philly, which has just played terribly as a team, but I would consider them more talented and somebody that could beat anybody in this league.

The New York Giants are a slightly above average team that is always hot out the gate due to an easier schedule and then starts to wane when the schedule gets a bit tougher.  The NFC East has the NFC West and the AFC East this year, which are not what you would call the toughest divisions either.  The Patriots are good, but are a beatable team as are the Jets.  The Bills and Dolphins are spirited but very beatable as well.  The AFC West should have been at the minimum a 3-1, if not a 4-0 record for all NFC East teams besides the Redskins.  The 49ers are good, but not unbeatable good and could be beat by all of the NFC East except for the Redskins.

That is my rant on the constant over rating of the New York Giants.  Tom Coughlin is a good but not great coach as well.  The guy is on the chopping block just about every year including the year they won the Super Bowl, which they were saved by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who could be on the chopping block as well, and very good play by Eli Manning.  So spare me how great he is, when they constantly want to fire him after every loss and claim how great he is when he beats a few cream puffs to start a season.  That is New York I guess!

Week 12 Fantasy Picks

Well, unlike our gambling picks, we did pretty well with our fantasy picks to some degree.  If you had the depth to bench Gore and Rice, that leaves you a very important running back spot to fill in for today.  Let ATP help you make a playoff push in this critical week 12 matchup.

Must Start

SJ should have a good day!

Cedric Benson, I think the Bengals are starting to feed the ball to Benson as the weather gets colder.  He is the main goal line back and should get an opportunity for a touchdown or 2.  AJ Green should be back this week, which will open up the running lanes for him as well.  I don't expect a ton of yards but maybe around 80 with good potential for scoring.

Steven Jackson, should get a lot of looks today going against the Cardinals.  He should have a big day going over 100 with a score.

Gronkowski, this guy is an automatic, but he should have a field day against these linebackers that are pretty bad in coverage.  Brady will probably look to his interior as there will be no need to challenge on the outside as much.

Mark Sanchez,  I think this guy comes back with a good game today.  He is at home, going against a defense that allows a lot of points, but they also have a lot of interceptions.  So don't be surprised to see a couple of those as well.  Feel safe starting this guy today.

Gambles

Rashard Mendenhall, Look for Mendenhall to get back on track a bit today as he is going against a pretty bad run defense.  The offensive line is always being bandaged up, but I think they will be able to poke some holes tonight for Rashard to get through.  If you need him, start him.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis, this is a gamble as nobody knows what the plan for the running backs are in New England.  If you are desperate, this could be a decent fill in as even if he is not getting a ton of carries, he might gain about 50 yards with the potential for 1 or 2 scores against a bad run defense.

Matt Leinart,  some people really need a quarterback and this could be a great fill today.  He has Arian Foster in the backfield and a health Andre Johnson.  What more could you ask for?  I see a couple of touchdowns for Leinart today.  Normally, I would wait a week and see how he looks, but if you have Palko, Hanie, Grossman or somebody on that level, I would go with Leinart today.

CJ Spiller, if you have him in a ppr league, I would consider him a desperate gamble.  In a regular league, I would much rather see him play a game first and then decide.  He should get at least 4 catches for about 30 yards to go along with his rushing total.  He should be able to get you at least 10 points in a ppr league.

Marshawn Lynch, I think this guy looks a lot better lately, but the Redskins do a good job of stopping the run.   It will be a much easier job when the quarterback is Tarvaris Jackson and you can key on the running game.

Nate Washington,  he is the main threat in Tennessee and I don't see much out of Chris Johnson so the throws will be forced to Washington.

Don't Start

Chris Ogbonnaya, he is going against a very good run defense in Cincy.  I would stay away from this guy today.

Ryan Matthews,  he does not score touchdowns because of Tolbert, which makes it tough to start against  a very good Denver defense.  Could be a gamble in a ppr league.

Dwayne Bowe,  Tyler Palko is still the quarterback with Orton playing a backup role tonight.  Even if Orton comes in, he can not know a ton of the offense to be getting the ball downfield enough to warrant Bowe as a start.

Week 12 Gambling Picks

Hopefully, I can make up for my 1-2 Turkey Day picks, but as I have said before I am fairly conservative and most likely would have done a 3 team tease, which would have worked no matter which teams you picked on Thursday.  So on to the picks and let's see if we can help some green roll in.

Buffalo at NY Jets (-9.5)

I know the Bills have been playing bad and they are missing Fred Jackson, but I can't get behind an almost 10 point spread for a Jets offense that has been playing very poorly.  This could change because they are at home and they have already whipped Buffalo at home, but I am sticking to my guns and think that Buffalo will lose but cover the spread.

Carolina (-4) at Indy

Carolina has not been the model of consistency this year, but they have been able to do something that the Colts rarely do in their losses, which is score a decent amount of points.  I know this is one of the last games that Indy has a chance to win, but I just don't see them putting up enough points to stay with Cam and Crew.  Take Carolina and the points.

NE (-3.5) at Philly

New England has killed me this year from a betting perspective, but Tom Brady vs Vince Young and only 3.5 points is tough to stay away from.    I think Belichick is going to put all of his efforts to stop McCoy and let VY try and beat him without Jeremy Maclin.  Nnamdi  and DRC are both game time decisions, which will hurt Philly.  It is a must win game for Philly, but I don't see it happening today.

Let us hope that these picks can make up for our sub par Thursday.  Good luck!

Turkey Day Fantasy Picks

Oh boy, we are getting to the heart of the fantasy season, where every game counts and everybody is just a small winning streak from backdooring into the playoffs.  Let it begin now with some Turkey Day fantasy picks to give you a nice cushion going into Sunday's games.  Is there anything better than waking up Sunday morning to see that you are already up 52-5?  I didn't think so.  On to the picks.

Must start

Tony Romo, this guy is hot and in the middle of a playoff push.  The Dolphins have a good defense and expect Vontae Davis to cover Dez Bryant a good amount of the day.  The reason I like Romo is because he is going to be throwing a lot as I think Miami will do a good job of keeping DeMarco Murray in check. If the offensive line can keep Romo on his feet, he will be hitting his secondary receivers a good amount and of course he will be throwing a ton to my next guy.

Jason Witten,  this guy is a must start every week so I shouldn't even have him on the list, but I expect a big game out of him as Witten is Romo's blankie.  Enough said.

Rodgers, Stafford, Johnson, Jennings, Nelson,   these are all must start quarterbacks and receivers from the Green Bay and Detroit game.  Enough said.

Vernon Davis , I like the matchup as the 49er running game will have a hard time against a good Baltimore front.  If Ray Lewis doesn't play, I really like Davis as he will find holes that Lewis would usually make sure are filled by somebody on the field.

Gambles

Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew,  I really Burleson in a ppr league this week.  A lot of attention will be cast on Megatron, so Stafford will target Burleson a fair amount. He would be a must start if he wasn't going against Sam Shields and Tramon Williams.  Pettigrew should get some goal line looks, but I like the Packer linebackers in coverage.

Matt Moore, I don't see a lot of running out of the Miami backs, so I expect to see a lot of throwing and this guy has been doing pretty well lately.  If you need a guy, don't be afraid to start him as he should give you a couple of touchdowns one way or the other.


Anthony Fasano,  poor man's Jason Witten.  Matt Moore's security blanket should get a lot of looks today as they will be focusing on Brandon Marshall.

DeMarco Murray,  he is catching the ball a fair amount, so in a ppr league you can feel safe starting him. I don't like him as much in a regular league as Miami does a good job against the run.  Always a threat to punch one in as well.

Michael Crabtree,  I like this matchup against young cornerbacks.  Alex to Crabtree is becoming a nice little combo, so if you need a guy, this could be the call for you.

Alex Smith,  much like Moore if you need a guy, Smith may be him.  He doesn't throw a lot of picks, plays pretty conservatively.  Probably throws a couple of touchdown as well.  I see very similar games out of Smith and Moore today.

Don't Start

I don't expect Gore to run free today

Ray Rice, if you can get away with it.  Meaning, if you have capable back ups this would be the time to bench your first overall pick.  In a ppr league, much like Murray, you can probably start as he is a factor in the passing game.  I don't see any touchdowns out of this guy tonight though.

Green Bay or Detroit defense, too many points in this one.  Green Bay might be able to get a pick six here or there, but I think there will be a fair amount of points in this one.

Frank Gore,  he is partially injured, backup running backs have been getting carries and they are playing a good run defense.  Baltimore will stop this guy before they worry about Alex Smith.  If you are lucky he punches one in, I wouldn't gamble here.

Turkey Day Gambling

This is a special Turkey Day edition of ATP where I will not only give my gambling picks for all 3 games going.  Hopefully, everybody has a great Thanksgiving and hopefully ATP can help you out today.

Green Bay (-7) at Detroit

In this game, expect there to be about 800 yards of total offense as Detroit realizes how big of a game this is for them.  Coach Schwartz knows this is the true barometer of how good this team is and can be so they will be coming hard for this one.  This is the hardest pick of the day for me as I have been going back and forth with this one.  The Bears stomped Detroit a few weeks ago and you better believe Aaron Rodgers and company saw the weaknesses.  If this was not a rivalry, I would go and take the Packers without much question, but since it is and I know that detroit is geared up, I am taking Detroit and the points.  I also like Detroit, which is probably skewing my vision on this one.

Miami at Dallas (-7)

In this game, I am going to follow the theme in the first one and go with a hot Miami over a hot Dallas.  Dallas will most likely win, but I am going to take the points.  The Dolphins really seem to be playing for coach Sparano and this is a Super Bowl type game for a team not going to the playoffs.  They will be front and center for the whole world to see and I think they cover the spread in this one.  Watch out for Matt Moore as he has been playing some good football in his time under center.

No Ray Lewis = No win

San Francisco at Baltimore (-3.5)

What the heck, it is going to be a Turkey Day hat trick as I am going with the underdog 49ers here and I like them to flat out win.  If Ray Lewis doesn't go, I really like San Fran here, but even if he does I like the 49ers.  I don't think Flacco will be able to beat this defense and I know that Ray Rice and company will not be able to run on them.  Ray Lewis, is not physically as good as he once was but he is still the heart and soul as well as the intelligence of this defense.  Without him on the field, they are a different team.  I see a 20-16 type of win for the 49ers completing the underdog hat trick on Turkey day.

Let's watch the green roll in!

Vince Young gets No Love, but Tim Tebow Gets a Ton?

I find it pretty funny that Vince Young is thought to be terrible and Tim Tebow is going to lead the Broncos to the promised land.  Vince Young is for all intents and purposes, the original Tim Tebow.  This only takes into account football, so don't think of this on a personal level, where you have one guy who is a virgin that spends his college offseason healing the sick in the Philippines, while the other is fighting managers at strip clubs.  You can guess which is doing what.
Vince Young is a college football legend who came into the league with a lot of hype, got a lot of credit for  taking a team to the playoffs, despite a terrible passer rating, through good team defense and timely drives.  Hmmmm.....who does that sound like?  Well, we are not even that far along in the Tim Tebow project, but that could be the best outcome for him.  I don't see it happening as this defense can't keep holding teams to less than 20 points.  This is the NFL, the option can not work for that long.
At any rate, nobody gives Vince Young a chance despite the fact that Andy Reid is the coach and there is a ton of talent on the offense, but people seem to think that Tebow can do it, with no talent.  I don't really like either of them as quarterbacks, but if I had to take one, I think I would have to go with VY, which is pretty scary to say.  He has won games with his arm and until Tebow does the same, I will take the guy who is 31-17 as a starter in the NFL, even if he does get into fights at strip clubs.  Just in case people weren't sure which was which earlier.  On a personal level, I would root for Tim Tebow more if the world was smart enough to realize he is not the answer.

Overreacting Seems to be the Norm I guess

Being from New England, it is hard to avoid the constant chatter about the Patriots progress during football season.  I do my best to avoid it by not listening to the local media, but you still hear about it a fair amount on the national level as well.  I am fairly biased and I try not to pay attention to any one team over others, so it is pretty funny when it is not only fans but the media as well as analysts that tend to over react.  Just a few weeks the world was crucifying Bill, Brady and the Patriots.  Was the blueprint out?  Is their reign over?  Now, after 2 wins over a terrible Chiefs team and over a Jets team in which you never know who will show up and the media has them going to the Super Bowl.
So, what is the real answer about this Patriot team?  In my opinion, they are in the top four of the AFC on a talent level, but can beat any team on any given day.  Well what does that mean?  If they had a series against the best teams in the AFC, they would probably win 45% against some and 55% against others, depending upon the matchup.  That being said, their schedule is fairly easy the rest of the way and they could end up with a 1 seed and homefield advantage.  I think they could get to the Super Bowl, but they will not in my opinion.  You can never truly doubt a team with Belichick and Brady, but they don't have the talent to get in done in my opinion.  This is not the point of this blog, but I just wanted to add my 2 cents on the subject.  It does not seem like any team in the AFC really wants to win the 1 seed, but this defense looks like it would not be able to handle a balance offense.  It would be nice to see as anytime you have Julian Edelman playing defense, you have a chance to win a Super Bowl.

Fantasy Options for Week 11

We are starting to get to the stretch run here and hopefully ATP has been able to help you make the right decision on some of your borderline starters.  A couple of surprises are in store for this week.  Here is a snippet of what can be learned from ATP to make people true believers.


Sept 17, 2011:


WR Jordy Nelson, if you are in a PPR league, and this guy hasn't been picked up, not sure what you are waiting for this guys gets a lot of looks and could have a very big year.  Greg Jennings gets a lot of attention, which leave Nelson as the second option for Aaron Rodgers against the Carolina Panthers.


After having stated that a few months ago, I am going to go ahead and say, which sounds crazy but, he is a better start than Greg Jennings going forward.  People have a hard time believing that, but I would start this guy over Jennings as he will have the better matchup and gets a ton of looks from A-Rod.  By no means am I saying to bench Jennings, he is just not as good of an option as Nelson on a fantasy basis, but he is still a better receiver.


Must Start:


Brandon Jacobs, if he is getting the start give him the rock as like I have said, keep starting guys against the Eagles defense until they finally stop somebody.  I think the Giants will keep it on the ground today, especially if Vince Young gets the start.  Personally, I think they should go with Mike Kafka, but I am not coaching the Eagles.

Undervalued Jackson should
get the start this week!

Steven Jackson,  this poor guy is so unloved and nobody ever sees him play.  He should have a good day at home against the Seahawks though.  


Tony Romo,  he is going against the Redskins and they must get a win here.  The Redskins should do a better job stopping the run than the pass, so I think this guy is a great option this week.  I might as well throw in Dez Bryant as well, because he is a beast and if I am going to push Romo, Bryant goes hand in hand with him.


Don't Start:


Chris Johnson, if you have a choice I would put this guy on the bench as they are going to Atlanta who will probably try and shut down the run and let Hasselbeck try and beat them.  Atlanta could put some points on the board as well, which might mean the Titans will have to abandon the run as well.


Cam Newton,  same here, if you have a better choice I would go with it.  Defenses are picking up his tendencies and the Lions need this game pretty bad and will do what they need to.  Steve Smith is more of a gamble, but it wouldn't be awful if you started him as he might get a lot of targets if they get down quick.


Cedric Benson, going against the Ravens in Baltimore.  Even without Ray Lewis, they do a good job of stopping the run and Benson won't do much.


Ryan Matthews,  not sure if people consider him an every week starter, but at the minimum he shouldn't be this week.  Maybe a gamble if you are in a ppr as he does get some targets, but that is minimized as well as he is not the goal line back.


Gambles:


DeMarco Murray, I know this sounds strange but Felix Jones is back and we don't know how they will be handling the load.  I also like the Redskins run defense.  That being said, this is only a gamble if you have other good options.  If that is not the case, go ahead and start because at the minimum he is getting the goal line carries.


Fred Jackson, I like Miami's run defense as well and they will be geared up to stop this guy.  In a ppr league, I think you always start Jackson as he gets a ton of targets and is always a threat to score a touchdown, which makes him less of a gamble.


Leonard Hankerson,  this receiver emerged last week and Rex Grossman seems to like him.  You could be getting in on the ground floor here as he is a big target and could make some big plays.


Vincent Brown, I don't like this matchup going against the Bears, but Rivers has confidence in him and he is a big receiver that could be a matchup problem for the Bears secondary.  He will probably get a lot of one on one as well as the Bears have to contend with Gates, Jackson and company as well.

Really Mark Sanchez, Really!

I know I took the easy way out with that headline, but it is fitting because Eric Smith should not have been in that position if it wasn't for Mr. Sanchez.  Mark Sanchez showed that he is not ready to be an elite quarterback.  I understand that you didn't have all of your plays available as Tomlinson did not play and Shon Greene got hurt early, but from a running perspective, Joe McKnight seemed to okay.  It is not like this team has been running well this year and you can only blame so much on the running back's pass protection.  You are playing against a pretty bad offense with a 7 point lead, is there really a need to throw in a tight window on a third and 8.  The only way you  could have lost last night is by throwing a pick six, which Sanchez did or special teams.
My other problem with last night's performance is that the Jets could not muster 15-20 yards to get into field goal range when they got the ball inside Denver's 50.  This would have given them a possible 6 point lead and made it a much different game.  People might say that they scored a touchdown, so it wouldn't have mattered, but it does and it does a lot.  Down 6, Tebow and the Denver offense would have needed a touchdown from the get go, which would have led to calling plays differently.  Knowing that you are down 3 and Matt Praeter kicking at home, is much better than needing to score a touchdown against the Jets defense.  The touchdown was icing on the cake as they knew they had a good shot at a tie already, which is why they called it conservatively once they were in field goal range.  No need to take risks and you might be able to get a good result by running it, but at the minimum you are not putting Tebow in a bad spot.  That was well played by John Fox, but was handed to him by Mark Sanchez's inability to lead an offense.  One other thing, I noticed is that Plaxico is beginning to look a lot like Randy Moss in his last year.  The main difference is that Plax goes across the middle more often than Moss did.  He is not beating anybody and his main move will be to get a jump ball.  There is no more explosion to him, so if there is no improvement by next year, he will probably be following Moss into retirement.

Really Eric Smith, Really!

At some point, the idea of containing became lost upon defenses and strangely enough I think it starts at the NFL level.  I have played a good amount of football in my life and have coached a good amount as well and never have I seen such a dismissive attitude towards containing.  Don't get me wrong, it happens at every level, every once in a while, but it is at epic levels in the highest level of the sport.  Next time you watch a game, take a look at the defensive end or outside linebacker on a stretch run going to the opposite side.  They go flat down the line to try and make a tackle on the other side of the field.  There is nothing wrong with this hustle, but they don't even flinch at the quarterback most of the time to see if it is a possible bootleg or even a play action pass.  Guess what, they will come back to those plays if they see this lack of discipline.  You would think this would be much more common at the lower levels, but you see it much more on Sundays, which to me is embarrassing.

Let's get to the point of the blog and that is to rip Eric Smith, the strong safety of the New York Jets, whose main job on that all out blitz on a third and 4 was to contain and make sure Tim Tebow could not get outside of him.  I will go as far to say, that Tebow was running no matter what and that Smith just made it easy.  John Fox had his team down 3, well within his kicker's range and was most likely not going to allow Tebow to make a throwing mistake.  If you look at the routes that Tebow's receivers were running, they all looked like clear routes, meaning they were just trying to take the defensive backs out of the run defense.  Tebow saw the all out blitz and quickly found his mark as seen on the replays he looked right at Eric Smith's side and was able to get wide of him as Mr. Smith took too much of an inside route.  Had he played it safe, Tebow would have had to Eric Smith's tackle, which would have been an even match as Mr. Smith is a good tackler, but instead he took a terrible angle and made it easy for Tebow, who did what he had to do and good for him.  NFL Defenses need to teach discipline or they will be losing a lot more games to guys who have a 76.4 rating while going 4-1 as a starter.

Week 10 Thoughts

It is pretty funny because I was going to start out by stating that the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears might be the best teams that nobody is talking about.  It is funny because for the time being, Matt Leinart will be the quarterback for the Houston Texans as breaking news is coming out that Matt Schaub is hurt for  a few weeks and there is some consolation as they have a bye this week.  I for one am excited to see what Leinart can do with a running back behind him and one of the best receivers should be coming back in Andre Johnson.  It is fair to say if he can't get it done with these guys, he is never going to get it done.  Fortunately for the Texans, they will have the Jaguars before they play Atlanta and the Bengals in the stretch run.

Cutler getting it done this year!

Michael Vick shows why he is not ready for the big time as this as when he has a bad game, it is really bad and keeps the Eagles from winning games.  He throws 2 red zone interceptions, one when they are up 7 late in the third quarter.  There is nothing wrong with kicking a field goal and taking a 2 score lead, Michael.  Putting up 10 points at home offensively against the Cardinals is unacceptable, I don't care who your receivers are.  Use your legs if you have to.

The Chicago Bears are very good and I noticed it last week against the Eagles.  That wasn't Vick, that was really good defense making it hard for him.  Could he have done something to win it, maybe, but I can deal with that more than yesterday as he looked awful out there.  Jay Cutler looks very comfortable, Matt Forte is the real deal and this defense is playing very good.  Dare I say, that they are one of the teams at this moment that could beat the Packers, because there aren't many.

The 49ers are a legit team.  I don't think they are going to the super bowl, but you can not fake 8-1.  You can fake 6-0 as the Broncos did a few years ago, but you can not fake 8-1.  They are going to end up with a #2 seed, which is going to be scary for the Bears or the Cowboys as those are the teams that I think are looking good.  Cowboys should beat the Giants out for the East as the Eagles have decided to pack it in for the season.

Tim Tebow is not your prototypical passer, but he is 3-1 in his starts this year, which is quite interesting. I don't think that it will matter much, he is still not the future but I am pulling for him.  It will be especially tough as Moreno is out for the year and McGahee is gimping around.

I think we saw a little bit more of what is expected from the Bills and the Bengals.  The Bengals kept it respectable unlike the Bills pathetic showing in Dallas.  I think the Bengals have done a great job this year, but I don't think they make the playoffs as they still need to play the Ravens twice, the Steelers again and the Texans, which will most likely have Schaub back at that time.  You do have to be pulling for Andy Dalton as he has done fairly well and was the best pick that Mike Brown has ever made.

Cam Newton started to show that he is a man and not a machine.  He will have some growing pains and even if he doesn't win another game this season, he has brought some excitement and energy to Carolina and could turn into a good quarterback.  Andy Dalton could be pulling away for rookie of the year if this keeps up.

The Jets are in some serious trouble as they are now 2 games behind the Patriots for the AFC East and 2 games behind Baltimore for the wild card.  They do have a favorable schedule as their only tough games left are Buffalo and the Giants at home, and if you can call it a tough game, Philly on the road.

Don't forget to watch Aaron Rodgers play flag football tonight against the vikings.  Should be good for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and that would be an average night.  Yikes!

Fantasy Options for Week 10

We are getting down to the stretch run and I probably should have run this blog a day early as I would have said start Michael Bush, Carson Palmer and Denarius Moore, oh, and bench Vincent Jackson, Ryan Matthews and Antonio Gates.  See, that is a pretty good start to the week so you should all listen to me.

Okay, let's get serious now as I am going to go to some people that have not been in the picture that much as the blog has been burned, but after only a couple of weeks off the list I am going back to, drum roll please:

Must Start

Chris Johnson,  our buddy is back on the list as he is going against a very bad Panther team and he seemed to be getting back on track last week.  You most likely used an early pick on him so I can't imagine you have other great options so have faith and start him this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, going against the Colts, he should get a lot of carries as the Blaine Gabbert Project is still in full effect.

Beanie Wells,  this Eagle defense is borderline pathetic.  There is grumbling out of DRC, which is going to complicate things as well.

Matt Hasselbeck,  depending upon who your first quarterback is, this guy should get the start as the Panthers have been putting up points and the Titans will need to match them.

Colston, Graham, White, Jones, Gonzales, in case you didn't realize these guys are the main receiving threats in the Saints-Falcons game.  They should all be started easily as I expect some fireworks from this game.

Mark Sanchez,  the Jets can't run and will need to put up some points against their rival, the Patriots and this guy has been heating up.  Expect at least 2 touchdowns and maybe more out of this guy.

Don't Start

Readers of this blog know that I am going to go with Wes Welker as my first guy as he most likely will have Revis on him.  I know that he had 120 yards last game, but 75 came on one busted coverage play.  I don't like to count on busted coverage.

Fred Jackson, unless you are in a ppr league, I would stay away as the Cowboys will do their best to take Jackson out of the game.  If you are getting points for catches, he will make up the difference though.

Cedric Benson, going against the Steelers coming off a bad loss in a big divisional game, don't like this matchup.

LeGarrette Blount, going against the Texan defense and Freeman not doing as much as he should be to take the attention away from Blount.

Brandon Jacobs,  he will have a tough time going to the west coast vs a very good 49er defense.

Gambles

If you are desperate, you can go ahead and start either Plaxico or Santonio Holmes going against the Patriots horrific pass defense.  Devin McCourty will probably be lined up on Holmes, so I think Plaxico is the better pick out of the 2, especially since he is the better goal line threat.

Nate Washington, this guy seems to be the passing threat that Hasselbeck needed to take over for Britt and there is a high comfort level as well.  Don't be scared to start if needed.

Jackie Battle, the Chiefs running back has a good matchup against the Broncos and somebody needs to get the carries.

I would say Green Ellis, but you still don't know if he will get the bulk of the carries.  The Jets defense has gotten better against the run since they last played, but they will focus mostly on Brady and the passing game.

This leads me to Deion Branch, expect Branch to get a good amount of looks especially since Ocho is not getting the offense and running some terrible routes.

That should be enough to get you through the week.  Now realize in the must start and can't start, I am usually referring guys that might be borderline otherwise.  Certain guys should be started regardless and I will only mention them if I think they should not be started and vice versa.  Good luck to all.

The Half Season Awards

We are halfway through the 2011 NFL season and it is time to give out the awards and there are not really any tough decisions.  At this point the front runners are seeming to run away, but plenty can still happen to change these current choices.

Coach of the half year:

As of right now, it is fairly simple as it has to go to 49er coach Jim Harbaugh.  They are sitting at 7-1 and have beaten some good teams along the way.  This team has not been a player in what has been a terrible division for the past few years.  The 49ers have pretty much wrapped up the division at this point and I don't think anything could change that as even if the quarterback Alex Smith went down, they would be able to fill the role and the way this team runs.  Jim Schwartz could challenge if they end up with 12 plus wins and the 49ers do the same, but nobody had predicted this outcome so quickly for San Francisco and people did expect the Lions to start getting better, which would hurt Schwartz's chances.

MVP:

Rodgers has the MVP wrapped up

Easiest choice on the board as this goes to Aaron Rodgers as he is playing better than any quarterback in the history of the NFL at this point.  His QB rating is almost 30 points higher than the nearest competitor and I don't see any slowing down.  What Rodgers is doing is unprecedented and is the most impressive play out of a quarterback ever.  These comments are not from a fan either.  The NFL should implement some sort of extra defense to play against Rodgers as it is not even fair for what he is doing.  He does it from the pocket, he does it on the run and he could probably do it from the field goal post as he is flat out embarrassing NFL defenses at the moment.  There is no close second, but if I had to say anybody it could maybe be Drew Brees or Calvin Johnson, but I would lean towards Brees at the moment.  If Calvin could start hauling in 2 touchdown passes a game and finish with a record 25 touchdown receptions, I am still not sure that he wouldn't finish second to Rodgers at his current pace.

Rookie of the year:

I misspoke earlier as this is a tough choice in my opinion.  I know the consensus are going to say Cam Newton, but Andy Dalton has the Bengals sitting at 6-2 and the Panthers are currently at 2-6.  Newton has definitely surprised from a passing perspective, but I do see him slowing down somewhat as defenses have more tape on him.  Dalton, on the other hand might be able to sneak the Bengals into the wild card and that would be tough to deny him on that basis as he is doing it with his arm as well.  Maybe not as much as Newton, but it is not like he has the Jets defense and Adrian Peterson in the backfield.  He has a formidable defense and Cedric Benson, which are decent but not great.  His teammate AJ Green and Julio Jones are in the distance, but a good second half could change the perception as well.  In my opinion, after careful consideration I am going to stick with Newton for now, but I think Dalton will take it over even though I don't think they will make the playoffs as they need to play the Steelers and the Ravens a few times.  Good luck with Andy!

Defensive Player of the year:

This always seems to be based more on how well the team is doing, which takes Jared Allen out of the running even though he and Demarcus Ware are on pace to break the record for sacks in a season.  I would give the edge to Allen out of these 2 because he is playing with a lot less talent and faces more double teams because opposing teams  can afford to.  I think by the end of the season if these 2 keep it up, it will end up being Demarcus Ware as the Cowboys will make a playoff run, even though I think they will fall short.  That is who I think will get it, the person who is the defensive player of the year in my opinion is the Darrelle Revis as he pretty much should be as he is still shutting down the main opposing receiver.  Unless the Jets make a great run in the second half where the defense plays great, Revis will not get the national votes, it will most likely go to the best pass rusher that is on a team that is in the playoff hunt.

The Onside Kick is Overrated!

Okay, this is now two weeks in a row where coaches with timeouts available chose to go with an onside kick instead of the smarter move of kicking it deep.  For the record, an onside kick is a great tool when used correctly and at the right time.  Desperate times mean desperate measures and an onside kick is more than a reasonable option.  I just think that it is being done in the wrong situations, especially in last week's case.

In the Baltimore game versus Jacksonville, with a 2 minute warning and 2 timeouts left down by 2. Now every one in the world knows they are going to run it 3 times in a row and make them use their timeouts.  The last thing that anybody was expecting was Jack Del Rio to put the ball in the hands of the Blaine Gabbert.  So instead of sending them back to the 20, which Raven kicker Billy Cundiff is more than capable of, was the best option in my mind.  As we saw, the Ravens had a nice onside kick that didn't make it ten yards and the Jaguars only needed a couple of yards to get into field goal range, which gave them a 5 point lead and now forced the Ravens inept offense to have to score a touchdown the length of the field.  To say the least, it didn't work out well.  So, John Harbaugh chose to put the ball in the hands of his inept offense as opposed to his defense, which is op ranked against a hapless offense.  Most people would choose the opposite in my opinion.

Last night, I can agree a little bit more with the Patriots choosing to go with the onside kick, but I still think it was the wrong option.  In this case, I don't think Belichick trusted his defense to stop the Steeler offense, but at the minimum go with a better onside kick as that was a terrible attempt.  With the amount of time that was left on the clock, I think you need to show faith in your defense and try to get the ball back in decent field position when a touchdown is needed.  I just feel that the onside kick is too much of a risk in these situations when there are timeouts available and you have a defense that is good enough to stop most teams, which I feel the Patriots are.  The Steelers were not going to spread it out on first and second down, it would either of been a run or play action, which the Patriots are capable of stopping.  The onside kick option looks especially bad when a statistic shows up on a board stating that the Patriots have not had a successful onside kick since 1994.

In my opinion, let us keep the onside kick as an option to be used as a situational surprise earlier in the game or as a desperate measure at the end of the game.  When you have a capable defense and timeouts available, give your defense a shot.

Fantasy Options for Week 7

We are going to start out with some free agent pick up guys in most leagues as opposed to the usual format of must start guys and the first one we have is Bernard Scott.  Filling in for Cedric Benson and going against Seattle, this guy should be good for some points, but I do wonder if they will give him the goal line carries.  Out of the gambles, this guy is closest to a must start, especially in a PPR league.

Next gamble will be Reggie Bush, I know he is going against the Giants in New York, but he has looked good when he has had room to run and he will get a lot of touches to keep the pressure off Matt Moore.

Antonio Brown and Deion Branch, I like these guys, especially in PPR leagues where there will be a lot of passing in the New England vs Pittsburgh game.  I wouldn't count on either of them scoring, but 7 catches for 70 yards seems about right.

Must Start

Dare I say Chris Johnson for the 4th time this year and he is only given us maybe one good game.  I do dare it as Tennessee had a week off to figure out their issues and they know they need this game.  Chris Johnson is still a good running back and he needs to bring his A game today.

Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks, Nicks is a must start every week but I am just accentuating it because Vontae Davis is out and they are going to have a hard time stopping these guys without him.

Demarco Murray, not because he had such a great game last week, but the fact that they are playing the Philadelphia Feebles when it comes to run defense.  Until they show me they can stop the run, I will keep saying start the opposing running back.

Don't Start

Peyton Hillis, I just don't know where this guy's head is at and until Colt McCoy can start scaring people with his arm, defenses will be focusing on Hillis.  This week especially since the 49ers have done a good job of stopping runners for the most part.

Marshawn Lynch,  he is going against a stingy Bengal defense, especially against the run.

Please don' start Tim Tebow.  People, I know it is a great story, but eventually his skills will come to show his true colors.  Great guy and I am rooting for him, but the first 55 minutes of last week are truer than the last 5.

Gambler's Corner Roundup

It was a pretty disheartening week last time around. Two big factors were the Packers letting off the gas with a 16 point lead, to only end up winning by 6 and Baltimore's total disfunction.  That is a big reason I never think of Baltimore as a Super Bowl team.  They are a good team, but not one that is going to win the big game any time soon.
On to this week where hopefully better results lie.  The first pick of the week is going to be the NE Patriots giving 3 at Pittsburgh.  I know it sounds kind of crazy, but NE matches up really good with these guys and seem to have their number.  The Steelers have the number one defense, but they have played some weak competition and I don't think they slow down Brady and company.  I think the Patriot defense is beginning to come around as well, which could mean big trouble for the rest of the league.
My next pick is another road warrior as I like Detroit to go into Denver and beat Tebowmania by more than the 3 that they are given.  I think this is a huge game for Detroit and they need to prove that they are not slowing down.  Tim Tebow will have a tough time against this Detroit front and it will be a long day for him.  I like him as a person, but he has a long way to go before I think he can cut it at this level.
My last pick will be a three team tease as after taking off 9 points for each game, you can have Houston beating the Jags, the Giants beating Miami and San Fransisco beating the Browns to cover.  No spread, it will be an even pick for all 3 games with the tease.  Outside of upsets, you should be good with this threesome.  The Giants will be weary after bombing vs Seattle at home, so coming off a bye they will be ready for Miami and it will not be a let down.  Good luck and go make some Keash!

Suicide picks for week 8

Unfortunately, I am not alive to in my own pool, but I am going to still give out my picks as that is what a good blogger should do.  I am not going to complain about the putrid play of Baltimore on Monday night vs the Jags, or the horrible unnecessary roughness call that basically gave the Jags a 2 score lead, or the horrible call to kick an onside kick, when they could have kicked it deep and got the ball back with decent field position down 2.  I am not going to complain about it.
Anyway, there are a few picks to choose from this week.  If you are in a second chance pool, the obvious picks are the Saints against St. Louis or the Ravens at home vs the Arizona Cardinals.  Those are both pretty safe as the Ravens are great at home and the Saints are clicking on all cylinders.  If you are in a deeper pool, I like the Titans to get off this rough patch vs the Colts, who are looking to win the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.  If Chris Johnson is ever going to get going this season, this would most certainly be the week to do it as the Colts never stop the run that well.
I also like the Houston Texans to beat the Jags at home.  Usually, I don't trust the Texans, but they are looking pretty good now that Arian Foster is back.  Another reason, the Jags can't pull off 2 big wins in a row.
Another one for the road, is the New York Giants to beat the Dolphins pretty handily as the Dolphins can't score with them and they are in New York, with them coming off a bye.  These are all pretty good picks, but as you know anything can happen and you need your team to show up, so good luck to all that are still alive.

Gambler's Corner Roundup for week 7

The last few weeks have been pretty good for ATP in this section.  We have been 2-1 the last 2 weeks and 3-0 looked pretty good until the Steelers offense crumbled as they could score no second half points.  Okay, on to the picks to see if we can keep it up and keep me making people some money.

First pick of the week is pretty simple.  Take Green Bay giving 9 points as they are going against a rookie quarterback and we already have established that there are no receivers in Minnesota, so be ready for the Pack to put  8 in the box to stop AP until Christian Ponder is able to move the ball with his arm.

My second pick of the week is the Baltimore Ravens, who are giving 8 points at Jacksonville.  I just don't think that the Jacksonville offense will put up more than 10 points, which means the Ravens will only need to score about 20, which should be doable unless there is a let down.  Don't see that happening with Ray Lewis running the show.

Last pick of the week is scary.  I was going to go with the Steelers as they are giving around 4 depending upon who you are using, but my pick will be the Chicago Bears to cover the 1.5 points they are giving to Tampa in London.  Tampa is coming off a huge win over New Orleans last week and they are flying to London.  They are a young team that I don't think will be able to match up with the more veteran Bears, who will be able to handle the trip.  Those are the 3 for the week and let's hope the trend continues or maybe even a 3-0 this week.

Suicide picks for week 7

Let's knock on wood as ATP has been on point so far this year with our suicide picks.  This week, the obvious picks for those that are in second chance pools would be the Green Bay Packers as they are going to be playing the Minnesota Vikings with Christian Ponder making his first start as a rookie quarterback.  Good luck going against that defense, who in Clay Matthews' eyes have not even been playing good football yet.  The other obvious pick is the New Orleans Saints going against Indy at home.  Both are sure as wins can get, but as we have seen anything can happen.  I do feel safe with those.

Don't let me down Ray!

The other supposed sure win and the team that everybody is taking because they have already used Green Bay and New Orleans are the Dallas Cowboys.  They are playing the Rams at home, who are winless.  As of right now, they are not even sure if Sam Bradford will play and it seems at the moment, he will not and AJ Feeley will fill in.  Man would I love to see a St. Louis win this week.  I am not saying to take St. Louis or anything, but if I have learned anything from the Cowboys, it is not to put your suicide hopes on them.  I will stay away from this one.

My next pick will be the Baltimore Ravens who are playing the Jaguars this week.  I know waiting until Monday night is the worst, but a good pick is a good pick.  I don't see the Jaguars scoring more than 10 in this game and even when they play terrible, the Ravens should be able to pick up at least 17 against these guys.  Nuff said!

Last pick of the week will be the Oakland Raiders.  I was higher on them earlier in the week, but I don't know what is going on yet with Carson Palmer practicing for 3 days and starting on Sunday.  I would still take the Raiders, but I have downgraded to my gamble pick of the week but the money has pushed them from a 3.5 pt favorite to a 6 pt, so Vegas seems to like them as well.

The Raiders and Bengals Both Make a Great Move! Wait What?

I know I am little bit late to this party but I did want to chime in as I wanted to post this a couple of days back.  The title of this blog really says it all.  I never in a million years that I would say that about either of the organizations, but to say it about both in the same sentence.  It is just preposterous!

I owe an apology to Mike Brown as he worked this one out perfectly as the Bengals could get 2 first round draft picks, which is more than what he would have got had he tried in the offseason.  Good for him.  I don't think they will make the playoffs this year, but things are looking up as he has a good rookie connection going for years to come.  Not sold on Andy Dalton getting them a ring, but I think Cincinnati will be happy to be a relevant team for years to come, which is a big plus for them.

The Raiders did what they had to do here as they have not been in contention since their Super Bowl appearance in the 2002 season.  I like what they did regardless of how Carson Palmer does.  He might do alright or he might do miserably, but I agree that the Raiders had to pull the trigger on Palmer.  They could not rely on Kyle Boller to get them into the playoffs.  Good luck to both, but I would put my money on the Raiders making a wild card before the Bengals.

Fantasy Options for Week 6

ATP has been doing well in the fantasy roundup and even the gambles have done fairly well.  I like this week and I feel fairly confident in this week's picks.  Mind you, there are certain guys that are obvious so  I don't mention them as a guy like Cam Newton is fast becoming.  I like him this week, in case you were wondering.

Must Start


Tony Romo and his receiving options, I really like this group this week, so if you have any of them, which includes Witten, Austin and Bryant start them quickly.  If Romo has 2 touchdowns, I will be surprised, I expect at least 3.  Not a huge Felix Jones fan, because of his lack of goal line carries.  Start him for a ppr league though.

Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw, I am going back to these guys this week as I expect a lot of points in this game versus the Bills.  You can go deeper on the receiver depth chart if you are desperate or play in a 10 or 12 team league.  On the flip side, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week and
Fred Jackson is a must start, even though I don't love him this week.  Jackson pretty much scores at least once a game and he gets yards rushing and receiving.  Tough not to start, when 15 points is a bad game for this guy.

Daniel Thomas,  although I need to root against him as the Jets are my suicide pick, this guy should have a big game as Matt Moore is starting for the first time in a while.  I am really scared of this pick even though they are at home.

I would have a Redskins running back here as I do every week against Philly, but much like the Patriots and my comment from last week, it is tough to get behind one guy.  As a team, I like them to rush well, so I will leave it up to you if you want to start Torrain or Hightower.

Can't Start


Frank Gore,  I think that the Lions will key Gore this week as this is a big game for them.  Harbaugh will want to run him a lot, but I think Suh and company will hold their own at home.

Maurice Jones-Drew,  there are no receiving options and Gabbert is getting a tough rap because of that, but I think he will be fine.  The Steelers are geared up for MJD and I think they will need to be shown differently before they game plan differently.

Mendenhall, I am not feeling him today as there are probably better options out there at the moment.  He might get in the end zone but I think the Jaguars have done a fairly decent job stopping runners.

Gambles

Adrian Peterson, much like McFadden last week, most people will be resigned to start him as he is a top pick, but I don't like him this week.  Until McNaab starts beating people on his own, defenses will gear up to stop him and without any real passing threat, I see mediocre numbers for AP tonight.

Arian Foster,  I like him better than AP, but the Ravens don't have to worry about Andre Johnson this week so they can focus on Foster.

AJ Green,  I actually like this guy as a starter, I am just not ready to make him a must start, but he is fast becoming one.  He is becoming the go to guy for Dalton, who is not afraid to just throw it up around the goal line.  Expect at least a touchdown for this guy.

Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson,  yes I said these guys going into Green Bay as gamble starts.  Either their defense can't hold Aaron Rodgers and company out of the red zone, which will force a lot of throwing or the Rams coming off a bye, show that they aren't as bad as their current 0-4 record shows.  I would love to see an upset that being said as this would be huge for my suicide picks.  Go Rams!