Fantasy Super Bowl Picks for the Lucky Few

Well, we are near the end and if you are one of the lucky few that are still left in fantasy football, congratulations are in order because you are most likely making a few bucks win or lose and you outlasted the majority.  This will be the last edition as the majority of leagues will be done after this weekend.  Hopefully, for the lucky few we will do our best to help.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, Smith should be a conservative pick for people playing in 2 quarterback leagues.  The Chiefs have been putting up a lot of points against bad defenses and they have Indy coming to town.  This game does have playoff implications, so I expect the Chiefs to put up some points and Smith should be good for at least 2 touchdowns and may get you 3.  If you have Russell Wilson, this would be a good option as Wilson does not give you the fantasy points needed to win a title, especially against a pretty good Arizona defense.

Matt Stafford, usually I would not put Stafford on my list as he should always be in the lineup.  Due to some lackluster performances of late, people may have gone sour on him.  I think this is a get back week as the Lions are feeling a lot of pressure and need to win out and Stafford is going to need to get back to form to quiet his doubters down.  With the Giants coming to town, look for this to happen.

Kirk Cousins, run with him again as they have Dallas coming to town and they can score, but they also love to give up points.  Should have a very good day.

Cutler/Foles, I will lump these 2 together as they are playing each other on Sunday night.  Both defenses have not shown up lately and even with Lance Briggs being cleared to play, I see a lot of points being scored.

Desperation

Jason Campbell, playing against a good run defense and a bad pass defense should give Jason the opportunity to be a good option for people that are desperate.  Should be good for at least 2 touchdowns and does a pretty good job of protecting the ball.

Running backs

Leveon Bell, going against a Green Bay defense that is having a hard time stopping anybody, look for the Steelers to play it safe and feed Bell.  Roethlisberger should do well also as play action will be big for the Steelers.

Demarco Murray,  he should be a must start, but I think after all of the fuss that has been made about Garrett and Romo's poor choice of play calling should lead to a huge day for Murray against a pretty bad Washington defense.

Ryan Matthews,  quietly having a very good year as he is already over a 1,000 yards.  At home against Oakland, look for him to have a very good game.  Might not duplicate Charles from last weekend, but should do well.

Desperation

Ray Rice, don't really like Rice, but he is usually able to do okay against bad run defenses, which New England has.  If you have nobody, you can put Rice in as your flex or 3rd running back.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen, should be able to keep up the good play as Oakland is in town.  Start him, enough said.

Kendall Wright, going in to Jacksonville without much to play for, but pride.  This should suit Fitzpatrick as he is playing to stay in the league and the best way to do that is keep throwing to Wright.

Not sure if he will
ever make the list again,
so let's get him a pic
on this blog post.

Pierre Garcon,  might have to keep up with Dallas and passing will be the way to do that.  Cousins is playing for a big contract, so don't look for him to check it to the run.

Desperation

Andre Caldwell,  there are too many guys to cover and he is playing in that slash spot that Manning really loves to throw to, especially around the goal line.

Defense

Detroit,  look for a revved up defense with the coach's job on the line.  They already do a good job stopping the run, but they should do okay against Eli as Victor Cruz will not be in the lineup.  If you are desperate, this could be a pretty good pick up.

Who Are the Candidates to Make a Run in the NFL

We see this every year now, a team that everybody had written off up until now starts to get hot and as we have seen in recent years, makes a run and ultimately either wins or challenges for the Super Bowl.  Sometimes, it takes a little luck as you can ask the Baltimore Ravens last year with maybe the worst defensive play in the history of football or even the Giants with David Tyree's catch, but these teams still come from the dead and put themselves in a position.  Many of them look pretty bad to start only to come on at the right time. 

People like to give credit too often to the coaches, but I also like to point out the fact that usually these teams are very talented and should have never been in the position to almost not make the playoffs.  The Giants come to mind as those teams that won the Super Bowl were loaded and almost didn't make the playoffs. When you have the talent, I tend to give less credit to the coaching.  To put Coughlin in the same breath as Belichick is laughable as the Giants are going to not make the playoffs for the second year in a row after winning a Super Bowl.  Last time I checked, they still have a franchise quarterback, some very good receivers and some talent on defense, which is more than what New England has at the moment and are still looking at a possible first round bye.

Can Flacco and Rice make another
unforeseen run to the Super Bowl?

Unfortunately, I got off topic and I tend to rant when that happens as my Belichick bias comes out in full force.  Who do I like this year to make a run?  Let us start with the defending champs, the Baltimore Ravens.  They have come from the dead and control their own destiny as they will win the AFC North if they win their last 2 games, not that it will be easy with New England coming to town and a season finale in Cincinnati.  Side note, they are a win away from going over their win total, which would make ATP 2 for 2 as KC already blew out their total.  Baltimore's defense is coming together as I thought it would be better than last year's and it now is.  Offensively, they are still figuring things out, but they would be a tough matchup for New England who can not stop the run, which would also keep Brady off the field.  If somebody can knock off Denver as I don't see last year happening again, unless weather plays a part, Baltimore could make another run.

In the NFC, who else but Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  When Rodgers is healthy, there is not a better quarterback in this league.  He is not afraid of the cold or to go on the road and beat a #1 seed, so if anybody is going to beat Seattle, why not the Packers.  They do need to get their defense in check, but Seattle does not put a ton of points on the board, which would work for the Packers.  The biggest road block would be going to New Orleans as Brees at home could be doom for the Packers. 

I still have Seattle coming out of the NFC and anybody can come out of the AFC, but these teams are definitely candidates to make this type of run as they both have in the past.  Both were counted out recently and now both can be facing each other and it would not be that surprising.

Playoff Time Fantasy Focus

For the majority of people, this will be the initial playoff game and for the rest it will be the semifinal weekend, but one thing rings true for all, win and you are in.  Hopefully, many of you did not fall for the Jacob Tamme trap as it was Andre Caldwell who took over the role and made the most of it with 6 catches for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Many of you who started Denver players are going to need to make up for the weak display most of them had, so ATP will do its best to help you out.

Quarterbacks

Nick Foles, if you have not jumped on this bandwagon, I am not sure what you need to see, but with Minnesota on the opposite side this weekend, Foles should deliver for his owners.

Alex Smith, look for Smith to keep rolling as he has shown that he is not just a game manager and if need be, he can put games on his shoulders.  This is a big game for Kansas City and he should be able to throw 2 touchdowns at the minimum.  He is always good for some rushing yards to add some much needed points in the playoffs.

Russell Wilson, I don't like Wilson and Seattle on the road normally, but after a poor showing against their division rival 49ers, this should be a highly motivated team and Wilson should be leading the charge.

Desperation

Kirk Cousins, he has a big couple of weeks ahead of him and with a full week of practice under his belt and a poor pass defense as his opponent in Atlanta, this should be a good potential desperation pick if you have a tough matchup with Cutler or Kaepernick and you may need more out of your quarterback than usual.

Joe Flacco, not much here except that they need this game and Detroit does a great job of stopping the run but not that good against the pass.  Flacco should put this team on his shoulders to help them get in the playoffs.  He could have a big game, but should have at least one or two touchdowns.

Running Backs

Murray should look good
walking in and out of
the stadium tomorrow.

Demarco Murray, he should be able to pile up some yards vs Green Bay, but the biggest issue is as always is Jason Garrett and Tony Romo.  They seem to let him do most of the dirty work and then screw him around the goal line.  If they commit to him around the goal line, he could score 2 or 3 touchdowns on a weekly basis.

Alfred Morris,  Morris should get a good amount of carries with Cousins getting the start.  Playing against Atlanta should also help out fantasy owners as well as Shanahan may give Morris over 20 carries and he should be able to deliver.  Main issue will be if he can get into the end zone as usual.

Chris Ogbonnaya, going against Chicago, enough said.  They have allowed 100 yard rushers for 6 weeks in a row and Cleveland will look to run the ball to keep Chicago off the field.

Desperation

Eddie Lacy, this is mostly due to his injury as you don't know what you will get out of him.  He has a favorable matchup as Denver has not been able to stop anybody as they are missing a lot on their defense.  The Packers have some options so if that ankle flares up, they have other options and May rest Lacy or at the minimum not give him a full workload.

Toby Gerehart, this will be strictly based on Peterson not playing and Toby getting the start and being healthy.  Those area lot of ifs but if they all work in his favor, he could be a big start especially in PPR as he doesn't really have a backup so he will get a lot of work.

Jordan Todman, getting the start in place of MJD, should be worth the start against a bottom 10 run defense in Buffalo. 

Wide Receivers

Anquan Boldin, should get a lot of looks as Revis should be all over Crabtree, which should focus their passing game plan to Boldin and Davis.

Julian Edelman, should have a lot of targets as Gronk is back on the IR.  Edelman seems to be the only guy that Brady trusts so he should be able to haul in at least 6 passes and maybe throw a score in for good measure.

Desean Jackson/ Riley Cooper, going against Minnesota in the dome should be a welcome change after last week's snowstorm.  Look for Foles to take advantage of a bad pass defense as they look to solidify their lead in the NFC east.

Desperation

Cordarrelle Patterson, I know many people are really high on him after last week's game, but it took a 79 yard touchdown on a screen in really bad weather in the last 2 minutes to make that a legitimate game.  His stat line would have been 4 catches for 62 yards had they been able to play a little defense and then secure the lead.  Worth a shot if you have nothing else going.

Rod Streater, McGloin seems to like throwing to him so if you have an empty slot or just want to take a chance as you are playing against the best team and need a miracle, give Streater a look.

I am Willing to Put Money on the Line that Denver Will not Win the Super Bowl

This sounds like an obvious reaction to last night's game, but in reality last night just solidified my feelings that I have had for some time.  It is more of a combination of things that I see, but it all adds up to Denver having a good season ending earlier than people expect. 

Most of this can be traced to weather and defense.  This is not one of those articles talking about Peyton not being able to play in the cold because that is not what it is.  I don't think Manning is as bad as people say in the cold, it is hard to find quarterbacks that are very good in the cold, period.  This article is not against Peyton as you need a team to win in the playoffs not one guy. He will still have some good games, but eventually he will need to play in the weather.  One way or the other, home field is going through Denver, New England or Cincinnati, all pretty cold place to play in January. In these situations, you need to have a good defense and a solid run game as the quarterback is somewhat voided as it is not easy to get comfortable in this weather.  In 2007, during Brady's magical year, you only have to look at the AFC championship against San Diego where it took the defense of New England to hold the Chargers to 4 field goals against Rivers, who was playing on a torn ACL.  Brady threw 3 picks that game and the leading receiver was Kevin Faulk, which means they were throwing very short passes that game.  They also got 125 yards out of Laurence Maroney, giving them good time possession as well.  Without a running game and a stout defense,  a torn ACL in the opposing quarterback doesn't hurt, the Patriots could have been 17-1 instead of 18-1.

This may be the best time to see Peyton do
some real work come January.

One thing we know for sure is that Denver's defense will not win them a game, which is why it is laughable to me that Jack Del Rio is being talked about as a potential head coach again.  He basically was given a job that he needs to hold teams to under 20 points on occasion and he can't even do that.  He should know the opposing teams game plans by now, they will try and run the ball to keep it away from Manning.  In the playoffs, it always gets tougher and all of the teams that are in the running to make the playoffs can beat this Denver team, especially when weather comes in to play as it is the great equalizer.  No quarterback is great in cold weather, they might have a good game here or there, but none of them exceed what they do on the reg.  Defenses can come at you more aggressively as the timing routes get messed up, leaving the quarterback to make tougher throws that take longer than usual.  Defenses can take away the short game and focus on the run and force Peyton to try to beat you with longer throws, which are riskier and not the way of the NFL anymore. 

They have a decent running game, but like an article posted earlier this year on ATP, losing Ryan Clady after losing Dan Koppen will definitely hurt them come playoff time.

http://allthingspigskin.blogspot.com/2013/09/not-enough-people-talking-about-bigger.html

 You only need to look to last night in a crucial point of the game, somebody coming through and getting to Peyton's arm leading to the pick that pretty much ended the game.  People may point to Welker not being in the lineup, but anybody who is going to complain about Andre Caldwell's stat line of 6 catches for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns after moving positions in a 3 day practice week does not really know football.

If they can get to the Super Bowl, then all bets would not be off as for the first time, the Super Bowl may be played in bad weather as it will be in New York City in February.  I don't think they get that far and this is probably the best chance a team like Cincinnati has of winning as their lack of an explosive passing game may not be exposed with all of the bad weather cities in the running of the playoff scene.  As I stated in the title, feel free to offer me some wagers as I will take any that I can afford.

Time to Put Up Or Shut Up: Fantasy Focus

There are no more excuses as the final week of the fantasy season is here.  ATP was on point last week as Carson Palmer, Alex Smith and Josh McCown all performed well as predicted from the QB position.  The RB position was just as good as Ben Tate came out of his scoring drought by scoring 3 times.  Spiller and Jackson both did well for Buffalo and hopefully you listened and stayed away from Rainey and Lacey as we suggested.  Our wide receiver picks did okay as Alshon Jeffrey showed why he was a pre-season sleeper for ATP with over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Our only true miss was connected as the Green Bay receivers didn't stand a chance with Matt Flynn playing the way he did.  Hopefully, we will duplicate last week's performance.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, expect Mr. Smith to keep his streak of good games going as the Chiefs will be facing the Redskins, who have a hard time stopping anybody.  Andy Reid has this passing offense moving in the right direction and Alex May get you some points running the ball as well.  This is a very good option this week.

Matt Ryan, despite Atlanta's recent woes, Ryan has been doing okay on a personal level and he finally took advantage of having Roddy White back as he hit him up for 143 yards.  Playing against Green Bay this week, expect more of the same as he should throw for a few touchdowns.

Phillip Rivers, Rivers needs to get back on track to keep San Diego in the mix and playing against the Giants may be just what he needs.  This is a big game and they should get back to their identity, which is throwing the ball.  This is as good a time as any to start Rivers despite the Giants recent play, which was not as awful as it was at the beginning of the season.

Carson Palmer, should keep his recent success going as they will play St. Louis, who does pretty good against the run and not as good against the pass.  Arizona is fighting for its playoff life and they need this win.  Look for them to lean on Palmer.

Stay Away

Colin Kaepernick,  I know that they are playing in San Francisco this week, but he does not have a great history against Seattle and more important the 49ers don't necessarily need him to win.  If Seattle has a weakness on defense, besides PED's, it is their run defense.  Expect the 49ers to keep their passes short and focus on the rung game.  The only silver lining here is if Colin K can run the ball, which is a possibility, but I wouldn't want to trust that in such a big week.

Running Backs

Ben Tate looking to make owners
 happy they handicapped Foster
this season.

Ben Tate, now that he showed that he is the man again, he should get plenty of opportunity tonight against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I wouldn't expect 3 touchdowns as the Jags have a better run defense than New England, but he should do okay and most likely find the end zone at least once.

Bobby Rainey, should be back in the mix as Tampa will look to run the ball against Buffalo this week.  Had a few off weeks against some good defenses, but he is a decent back in an offense that wants to run the ball.

Demarco Murray, although he scored 3 touchdowns last week, he did not particularly run well.  He was able to get a lot of goal line looks that should hopefully stay the trend for his fantasy owners.  Playing against Chicago on Monday night in a game with playoff inclinations should be a good fit.  Chicago has a bad defense and they are going to have to worry more about the pass game, which should open up running lanes for Murray.

Desperation

Monte Ball, playing against the Titans this week and Moreno still a bit injured should give Ball plenty of opportunity, especially after a big performance last week.  In a pinch, Ball could be a big pickup to help you get in the playoffs.

Stay Away

MJD, I don't love Jones Drew as his main point threat is by scoring a touchdown as Houston's defense, will look to avenge their loss to the Jags a couple of weeks ago.  I don't see many yards, so if you have a better option, use it.  If not, you better hope he scores once or twice.

Wide Receivers

Roddy White, why not go 3 weeks in a row with White.  He is playing a weak pass defense and with a banged up Gonzales, he is the primary threat and still capable of owning that title.  Go long with White.

Desean Jackson, is usually a must start, but I think that he will be a great start this week.  Detroit is good against the run, which will force a lot more throws, especially short ones to Jackson.  These will act as their first and second down run plays.

Desperation

Mike Wallace,  if you don't have any good options, Wallace may be your guy.  He has been doing fairly well the last few weeks as the Dolphins have actually used Wallace for what he is, a deep threat.  Even if Ike Taylor covers him, it should not be much of an issue as he has had major issues with top receivers as of late and look for the Dolphins to try and exploit that.

Defense

Houston, going against the Jags, that have been doing well as of late, they look to avenge their pitiful loss from a few weeks ago.  The Jags are not explosive, so look for Wade Phillips to do whatever he can to keep his job.  He needs his defense to have  a performance that they were accustomed to before this season.

Gambler's Corner for Week 13

Hoping to continue our good fortune from last week, where we posted a 2-1 record, our only miss was thinking that Andrew Luck and company would be able to keep winning games that nobody else thought they could, but that did not hold true and they got swamped at Arizona.  Now it is on to this week and let us see if we can win some money in time for Cyber Monday.

Chicago (PK) over Minnesota, the game is in Minnesota and I know that the Bears are not going to be able to stop Adrian Peterson today, but I am not sure that the Vikings will be able to stop Josh McCown and company.  Not sure the Vikings will be able to keep up with the points that the Bears should be able to put up today, but I do know that this should be a high scoring game as well.  Right now it is set at 49, which if I had to choose I would go over, but I would rather tease it to 43 and have the Bears get 6 as well.

Jacksonville (+7) @ Cleveland, I am riding the Jags for the second straight week as their defense has been showing up as of late and Cleveland does not have enough of an offense to be giving anybody 7 points, similar to Houston last week.    I think Cleveland will probably win a close one here, but not by more than 7.

Brady is starting to hit his stride.
Watch out NFL!

New England (-7.5) @ Houston, this is a lot of points against a team that has as much talent as Houston, but they have no heart at this point and New England is really starting to click on offense.  Belichick will have something ready for Case Keenum as he usually does a pretty good job when he has enough tape on these young quarterbacks and this defense is starting to turn into a bend but don't break that we saw in the early 2000's.  If you want to tease, it should be a can't miss, because this game should not be close.

Week 13 Fantasy Picks

Just 2 weeks left for people to make a push towards the playoffs, so this is most likely a very big week for people on the bubble and every roster spot will be crucial.  For last week, I missed big on a few as Case Keenum and Ben Tate were about as bad as it gets for Houston against a bad Jags defense.  Phillip Rivers, who I did not like, was able to get it going as Hali and Houston, KC's best 2 pass rushers were injured and forced to leave the game early.  Antonio Brown was able to have a decent first half and then was held to one catch in the second, but I still missed on that one.  Bobby Rainey and Ray Rice were not factors last week, which were ones that we did hit on as were Lacey and Kaepernick, who had pretty good games as well.  Greg Olson kept it going as he scored, which is almost becoming a weekly occurrence.  Now, it is time to turn the page and see if we can help make that playoff push.

Quarterbacks

Palmer is starting to make it look
the good old days.  Today should
be one of those days as well.

Carson Palmer, welcome back after some time off this list.  Palmer has put together some good games and
is now traveling to the East coast to face the league's worst pass defense.  Should be able to replicate those numbers he has been putting up.

Alex Smith, I think Andy Reid liked what he saw last week out of Smith and knows that he is going to have to let him loose to keep up with Denver.  This could be a good option as they are at home and DRC will be a game time decision and Champ is still out. 

Josh McCown, playing against a bad Minnesota pass defense, he should keep it going with a lot of great options to throw to for Chicago in the dome at Minnesota.

Running Backs

C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson, who knows who will get the majority of the carries, but they are playing against a bad Atlanta run defense, so Jackson should be a definite go and Spiller should be more of a desperation as we still don't know how they will use him.

Rashad Jennings/Darren McFadden, not sure if McFadden will be going, but start whoever is dressed tomorrow as they will be doing plenty of running against Dallas' porous defense, especially if Sean Lee still can't go.

Ben Tate/Dennis Johnson, follow the trend and start any running back against New England.  Since Mayo and Wilfork have been down, they have not been able to stop anybody. They are stating that Tate will get the start, but who knows after last week's terrible performance.

Desperation

Donald Brown,  is now getting the start as Trent Richardson has been benched for this week.  Turned in a good performance with 80 yards and 2 touchdowns, the last time Indy played Tennessee.  He has also been catching passes out of the backfield, which is a bonus for PPR leagues.

Stay Away

Bobby Rainey, two weeks in a row for this guy as he faces another tough matchup in Carolina.  Rainey is not good enough to start against a good defense as evidenced from last week.

Eddie Lacy, tough to bench Lacy as he has been doing very well, but Detroit and a motivated Ndamukong Suh are going to do everything in their power to let Flynn beat them tomorrow.

Wide Receivers

Alshon Jeffrey, playing on the other side of Marshall helps a lot and this week, it will help even more that Minnesota will be facing him.  Trestman likes to have his offense throwing the ball a lot, which means there are plenty of targets to go around.

Green Bay Receivers, does not matter which one you would like to pick, they should all put up decent days as the Lions focus on stopping the run as they don't realize that this is now a passing league.  Start each of these receivers with out worry.

Victor Cruz, should have another decent day as the Giants desperately need this win.  Now that the running game is going for New York, the Redskins are going to have a very hard time stopping Eli and company.

Desperation

Denarius Moore/Rod Streater, playing against the Dallas defense and Oakland may need to score a lot of points to keep up with Dallas.  Take your pick and hope for the best.  It seems McGloin like Streater better but you never know with this team.

Michael Floyd, coming off 2 good games, there is a chance that he is turning the corner towards being a consistently good receiver.  It helps that Philly will be on the other side of him this week, so look for him to possibly keep it going.

Roddy White, I am going to give Roddy another go as eventually they are going to take advantage of this talented receiver.  Today may be the day for Mr. White.

I missed on Roddy White, but I can Explain!

So, I was pretty high on Roddy White really coming back and being the receiver he once was and was able to watch the majority of the first half.  The basis of me really liking him was the fact that Jabari Greer would be out and the Saints would not have a corner to cover him.  Most of the fantasy experts are complaining about his performance, which is unfair to those who were truly in tune to the game.  Roddy White was being covered by the only NFL starting cornerback that they had in Keenan Lewis with safety help.  This left soft coverage backside on Darius Johnson and Harry Douglas who had pretty good games.  Despite everything I have mentioned, Roddy was beating Lewis who was playing press as he knew he had help over the top.  This led to Matt Ryan not even looking to the right, if anybody really watched they would have saw this as well.  He took the snap and immediately looked to his left as if that was part of the game plan and targeted anybody but White.  Roddy was targeted twice and he caught both, last week he was targeted 9 times, but had Revis covering him.  So, don't lose faith in Roddy yet as he could help you down the road as physically he looked fine and the lack of offense seemed to be a scheme issue as opposed to White not being able to cut it.

Week 12 Fantasy Picks

Although it is Thursday, I wanted to get an early start this week as I wanted to welcome somebody back to the fantasy list for Thursday night's game.  Last week was a pretty okay week as we only missed big on the Jets defense who did not show up last week against the Bills and a couple of receivers really didn't do anything last week.  The quarterbacks all did well enough and Ray Rice played probably his best game of the year.  That was last week and we now must move on to this week.

Quarterbacks

Case Keenum, going against the Jaguars and they have Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and now Garrett Graham is turning into a serviceable tight end.  This should be a coming out party for Keenum, who I unfortunately am playing against personally.

Colin Kaepernick, the biggest problem here is the fact that Gore scores from inside the 3 for all of their touchdowns it seems.  The other problem is that they have the potential to get up big especially against a slow starting team like the Redskins.  Once that happens, Harbaugh is happy to slowly run the clock down.  You should hopefully be able to get a couple of touchdowns and maybe 50 yards rushing, but don't expect too much over 200 yards passing as this offense is just not built that way at this point.  Maybe when Crabtree gets back that will change, but until then good luck with this crew.

Desperation

Matty Ice, Ryan has been doing okay for fantasy owners despite his team's lackluster performance.  Tonight he should be able to get you at least 2 touchdowns especially if Jabari Greer is injured and not manning one of the corner spots for the Saints.

Stay Away

Phillip Rivers, the Chiefs have only given up more than 17 points once this year and it was against the best offense this league has seen since at least the 2007 Patriots.  That does not leave a lot of room for Rivers to get a lot of touchdown passes, especially since the Chiefs have to be pretty upset with their first loss.

Running Backs

Ben Tate, he probably won't have a monster game as he has only scored one touchdown this year, but he is pretty consistent with getting about 80-90 yards a game and he has been catching a few more passes as well.  Playing against the Jags, if you aren't going to start him this week, he is just taking up a spot on your roster.  Give him the rock this week.

Chris Johnson,  going to Oakland, who has not been too good against the run.  CJ should find paydirt as he has in 3 of the past 4 games and get close to the century mark in rushing yards.

Eddie Lacy, playing against Minnesota with Scott Tolzien showing that he can handle playing behind center in the League, should both be huge factors for Lacy having a big day.  Minnesota has had a hard time stopping the run and with Tolzien showing that he can throw, Minnesota will have to respect the Green Bay passing game.

Stay Away

Bobby Rainey, as good as this guy has been running for the Buccaneers, they are going to be playing Detroit who has a lot to play for and a very good defensive line.  Stay away if you have better options.

Ray Rice, going against a very motivated Jet defense, who is already number one against the run is not going to help.  Same as Rainey, if you have other options start them.  Look for the Ray Rice that you have seen for most of 2013 to be playing.

Wide Receivers

Roddy should not be just standing
around tonight.  Big Game!

Roddy White, laugh if you will, but Mr. White will have a coming out party tonight, you just wait
and see.  He has played against some good cornerbacks his first few weeks back, but tonight especially if Greer can't go for the Saints, look for White to be highly targeted and motivated. 


Victor Cruz,  should be able to take advantage of a weak Cowboy defense especially if Sean Lee is not in the mix. 



V-Jax, they will not be able to run against Detroit, but they should be able to throw and look for this guy to get a lot of targets.

Stay Away

Antonio Brown, Joe Haden will be all over him and that is never good news for fantasy owners.  I have him, but this is a guy that you should sit.  Just ask AJ Green owners last week.

Tight Ends

Garrett Graham, turning into a pretty good option and with Jacksonville in town, worrying about Andre Johnson, Graham should be able to beat the linebackers of the Jags.

Greg Olson, besides the clunker he threw up 2 weeks ago, Olson has been pretty solid.  In a season, where there are only a couple of real solid option, Olsen is the better of a bad situation.

Desperation

John Carlson, be on the lookout for this guy as Minnesota's offense is heavy on tight ends.  If Rudolph does not come back, Carlson could be good for a team making a playoff run.

Gambler's Corner for Week 12

If you are still alive in your suicide pool, congratulations to you.  For the most part, many people are already done with their pools and after my terrible performance a couple of weeks ago, I took a week off and ready to go a different route.  To be fair, I don't think anybody saw St. Louis thrashing the only team that has beat Seattle and Denver, the Indianapolis Colts and the Jags were bound to get a win and it just happened to be the week that I picked against them.  So for this week going forward, I am going to throw in my gambling picks and see if I can pick up from where I left off 2 years ago, where I hovered around 60%.  Let us see how it works out this season.

The Picks

Indy +3 @ Arizona, as much as I like the way the Cardinals have been playing, the Colts just seem to win after starting slowly every week.  After that loss to St. Louis, I don't think Chuck Pagano will have them caught off guard any more.  Andrew Luck is as good as advertised, maybe not when it comes to fantasy numbers, but he is when it comes to winning games.  In 2 years, he has already won a good amount of games with basically 2 different head coaches as Bruce Arians took over for Pagano while he was sick last year.  Arians could be a factor as he knows Andrew Luck very well since he coached him last year, but in the end this Colt team will be too much for the Cardinals and I expect the Colts to win this game flat out.

Expect CJ to help the Titans get
back on track in Oakland.

Tennessee -1 @ Oakland, Matt McGloin coming off a pretty good game for the Raiders last week will probably come back to earth as it is pretty tough to play in this league as a rookie.  There is little tape, but McGloin is a backup in this league, which is no knock on him, but he is what he is.  The Raiders have been playing okay, but look for the Titans to come back from losing 2 really tough games against the Colts and the lowly Jags and get their fifth win in this battle of 4-6 teams.

Jacksonville +10 @ Houston, this would be a much tougher call if it was 2012, but the way that Houston has been playing this year, I have no idea how Vegas can have Houston giving 10 points to a college team this season. Jacksonville has been playing harder the last few weeks and I don't think Houston can score enough to cover 10 points.  I see Houston winning this game, but 10 points is just too much.

So that is a wrap for this week, hopefully we can end up with fatter pockets than it began.  Good luck with your gambling endeavors!

Week 11 Fantasy Picks

Week 10 was a tough one as many of the guys we liked didn't play badly, but they didn't produce huge numbers besides a few, namely the Eagles players mentioned like Foles, Cooper and Jackson, who might all be every week starters at this point. Cooper is maybe the only one that you may have to think about, but that is a really good option if need be.  Peyton Hillis, did not end up playing and Andre Brown was the workhorse, despite all reports stating that he would be eased into offense.  The great thing about this game, is there is always next week and that is where we are at this point.  Hopefully, we pick it up a notch and get you a step closer to the playoffs.

Quarterbacks

Nick Foles, this will most likely be the last week I mention Foles as once you are considered an every week starter, there is no need to put you on the list unless I think they are not worth starting.  Washington is coming to town and this game could be an offensive showdown as neither defense is very good against the pass.  Great matchup here.

RGIII, from an offensive standpoint this guy is putting up numbers much like last year and unless you have a much better quarterback, he should be an every week start.  This is a good matchup and with Alfred Morris having a hard time getting in the end zone, RGIII fantasy owners are benefitting as he is getting a lot of touchdowns, without having to throw for a lot of yards.

Russell Wilson,  Minnesota and their terrible defense are coming to town and Wilson's main issue will be not letting Lynch get too many goal line carries.  If that is the case, Wilson should have a big day and may be the best option on the day.

Desperation

Eli Manning, the Packers are coming to town and this is a must win for the Giants, who despite an awful start, can still win the division, but they need to keep winning.  Manning should be able to get you at least 2 touchdowns today.

Running Backs

Andre Brown,  Coughlin is going to stay conservative knowing that the Packer offense will not have an easy time putting up points and the best way to lose this game will be from letting Manning throw too much, which can lead to picks.  Look for Brown to get a lot of carries today.

Andre Ellington, eventually Ellington will get more touches than Mendenhall as he keeps producing and the pressure must be mounting on Arians to do so.  Playing against Jacksonville should be a good day to try that out.

Desperation

Tate needs to do something today
to be considered a true fantasy
factor going forward.

Ray Rice, bad weather is expected and the Bears defense has been fairly generous to runners this season.  It could be a day that Rice catches some short passes and starts to get a good amount of carries, but with Pierce getting more involved you never know.

Ben Tate,  still needs to show something before he is considered a guy to start on a consistent basis, but he will get the majority of the carries and they are playing at home against Oakland.  This could be his coming out party.

Stay Away

Mark Ingram, don't expect a similar performance to last week as Dallas is not very good against the run.  The 49ers are not too happy about losing to Carolina this week and a big back like Ingram does not look to fare well against this type of defense.  Expect Brees to attack the secondary instead.

Wide Receivers

Pierre Garcon, should look to keep it going against Philadelphia if the weather holds up.  Garcon is the most consistent in this receiver core and he is best bet to put up some numbers.

Golden Tate, Wilson will be throwing today and he seems to like to throw to Tate, who also tends to get in the end zone fairly often.  Should be a good option.

Desperation

DeAndre Hopkins, does not score enough to be considered a starter every week, but Keenum seems to like targeting Hopkins and that should still be the trend with Oakland coming to town.

Marvin Jones, Joe Haden will be locked up on Green today so Jones, who is becoming a bigger part of the offense on  a week to week basis could be the beneficiary today.  He also has a knack for getting in the end zone.

Stay Away

Cecil Shorts,  despite the fact that somebody needs to catch the ball, Cecil will be locked down by Patrick Peterson and he probably won't be able to break free for touchdowns like Andre Johnson did last week.  AJ had 5 catches for 37 yards last week, but was able to make a decent fantasy play as he hauled in 2 touchdowns. 

Roddy White,  has Revis this week, so it won't be until next week where he may be considered a desperation option.

Defense

NY Jets, with the Bills missing 2 of their receivers, there will be less options and the Jets can focus on stopping the run with maybe one of the best defensive lines in the league.  Weather may be a factor making it easier for them as well.

Week 10 Fantasy Picks

If your league is anything like mine, regardless of your record, almost everybody still has a chance to make the playoffs.  These next 3 weeks will truly decide whether you are able to make a push or you will be watching unexcitedly on weeks 15 and 16.  Last week we missed on a couple as Alex Smith did not do anything, which I felt as I had picked up as Colin K had a bye.  Bilal Powell, I would give myself 50-50 because Chris Ivory ended up being the feature back and had a big day and you can never figure it out who will be the bellcow for the Jets, but I had the right idea.  ATP hit big on keeping away from Ray Rice, pushing for TY Hilton to start coming through worked out as well.  Hopefully, we can keep more good calls coming than bad.

Quarterbacks

Nick Foles,  now I don't like him because he threw 7 touchdowns last week.  That is a good sign, but the more important part is that he seems to be putting it together with Chip Kelly's offense.  Outside of the last time we recommended him against Dallas, he has been pretty consistent and this week he is going against Green Bay, who may be down as they don't have Aaron Rodgers for the next couple of weeks.  This should be a good day for Foles.

Big Ben, the Steelers really need to get a win and they realize that playing Buffalo is a good chance to do that.  Big Ben had a pretty good game in a loss to New England and I expect that to continue to the blight of Leveon Bell owners.  Big Ben is a top 5 quarterback this week as far as I am concerned.

Phillip Rivers, he is going to need to sling it this weekend with Denver coming to town.  They don't have a very good run game, so expect Woodhead and company to have a lot of short receptions, which they hope will turn into big plays.  Should have at least 2, but most likely 3 touchdowns in this one.

Stay Away

Case Keenum,  I know he was able to find Andre Johnson for a ton of yards and 3 touchdowns last week, but expect Patrick Peterson to be covering Andre, which should negate any chance of a similar effort.  Arizona has a solid defense all around and they like to run the ball to chew up some clock to shorten the game.  There are a lot better options than Keenum this week.

Matty Ice, although I said to stay away from the Seahawks in suicide pools, I still don't love Matty Ice against the Legion of Boom.  It should be interesting if Roddy White is back, but not that interesting to give this guy a start.

Running Backs

Murray will need to get back on
track this week and lucky for
him, they are heading to New
Orleans who have been very
charitable to running backs.

Demarco Murray,  the Saints have had a hard time stopping the run for the most part this season.  The Cowboys are going to want to replicate what the Jets did last week and Murray should be the benefactor as he should get at least 20 carries this weekend.  Expect over 100 yards and a touchdown from Murray.

CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson,  the Steelers have had a hard time stopping the run as of late and I would expect the trend to continue this weekend.  The hard part will be figuring out which guy will do better and get the majority of the carries.  Spiller seems to be healthy for the first time in a while and he should begin to get more touches, but we will see if that is the case.  I do like Spiller better, but Jackson should get goal line touches.

Desperation

Peyton Hillis, it does not seem like Jacobs will be dressing and they are going to bring Brown around slowly, so for at least one more week against a bad Oakland team, Hillis should get the majority of the touches.  Always good for a touchdown or 2, could be a good one week pickup.

Andre Ellington, this is mostly from a PPR standpoint as Bruce Arians has made it clear that Mendenhall will start, but he wants Andre to get around 20 touches.  This will be done through the pass game, which will be a huge pickup for fantasy points in a PPR league.  It would seem that his best chance of scoring will be from distance, but you may get lucky as he has big play ability.

Stay Away

Zac Stacy, now this is a tough one to say stay away from, but it is primarily due to playing against a tough Colts defense, where Chuck Pagano will try and take away their strength, which will be Stacy and not Kellen Clemens.  He will get a lot of touches though and he may punch one in as well, but remember his 2 touchdowns were the first rushing touchdowns of the season for the Rams last week.

Wide Receivers

Desean Jackson and Riley Cooper,  I like Jackson a lot more but I will throw them both in as Chip Kelly and Nick Foles are going to do everything in their power to show last week was not a fluke.  Expect a lot of throws and for them to really put some points on Green Bay today.  Chip Kelly is an ego maniac and he is going to want to show that he can coach in the NFL.

Cecil Shorts, Somebody is going to have the ball thrown to them and with Blackmon out again, it is going to fall to Mr. Shorts who has been pretty good when he is the main option.  Shorts is a very good play in a PPR league.

Desperation

DeAndre Hopkins, Patrick Peterson should be covering Andre Johnson and will be especially attentive after AJ's performance last week, which will leave Mr. Hopkins with a lot more targets.  I am not going to put Andre into the stay away category, but he is not the best option this week.

Stay Away

Mike Wallace, don't really love this offense and Mr. Revis is starting to get into a groove, which should spell trouble for this one trick pony.  Wallace has not been able to get deep touches as Miami's offense does not call for it.

Jordy Nelson,  I would give him a week to see if Seneca is going to be able to get the ball to him.  He might have to try and force it into him as they may be down if I am right about the Eagles offense.  Give him a week off if you have better options.  In a PPR league, you may be able to get away by starting him if you have no other options and get 12-16 points.

Falcons Receivers, Roddy White is back, but he is going against the Legion of Boom and this is probably a good week to see how he looks.  I don't really like Douglas as much either as they usually do a good job of shutting the pass game down altogether.

Week 10 Suicide Picks

Moving along to the very tough portion of the suicide pool, ATP has lost one of its main picks, but has been pretty good with these picks.  Last week, Dallas ended up squeezing one out as did Seattle, which was  big surprise.  The Saints rounded out our picks, but as we stated you never know what you get with the Saints on the road, regardless of competition.  In the stay away category, the Pats took care of the Steelers, which was not a surprise, but if we were able to move anybody from taking San Diego over Washington, we did our job.  On to this week.

Indy over St. Louis,  Kellen Clemens has done a pretty good job filling in, but I expect the Colts to really do a good job of stuffing the run this weekend, which is what St. Louis has been doing the past few to keep their offense moving.  Although, the Colts are primarily looking to run, they do have the potential to throw and open this game up.  I expect a 27-14 type of win here and this is my lock of the week, but I am sure it will look scary for a bit.

Tennessee over the Jags seems like a good one to choose as well.  I am a little weary of MJD taking it to this Titan run defense much like Zac Stacy did for St. Louis this past weekend.  If the Jags had a win, this would be my lock but I feel the Jags will win at least one this year and this is the type of game they can win.  I will go with the Titans though in a tighter game than expected.

The NY Giants coming off a bye,  should beat the Oakland Raiders.  I expect this to happen as now that there has been enough tape on Pryor to properly defend him.  He may be able to break a big one here and there as he is very athletic, but he has not done enough in the passing game to put this team on his shoulders.

Matty Ice needs
a signature win to
help him forget
 this season thus
far.

Stay Away

New Orleans over Dallas is not a slam dunk even though they are at home.  Dallas is tough to take in suicide, but they are also tough to go against.  Although the Saints play pretty great at home, Dallas may be able to throw with them and they can run better.  Saints will probably win but there are better options.

Don't like the Seahawks over the Falcons that much either.  The Seahawks are another team that does not put it together on the road that well.  Although the Falcons look nothing like the team that beat Seattle in the playoffs, they still have some of those ingredients and Matty Ice at the helm.  Go with somebody else.

Week 9 Fantasy Thoughts

We are now looking to the playoff stretch and every player that you start could win or lose your game as has already happened to me this season.  Now is the time to really make sure that the guys you have in your lineup are the correct ones.  Hopefully, the following may be on your roster or are available to be picked up.

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo,  in a season where outside of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, there are not too many automatic starts at quarterback.  Tony Romo is beginning to look that way himself as even when he has a bad first half, he tends to pull out at least a couple of touchdowns.  This week he is at home against the Vikings and there anemic defense, so that means it should be a pretty good week for this guy.

Alex Smith,  going to Buffalo this week and this could be a week that the usually conservative Smith may be able to finally get you 3 touchdowns.  He is always good for 14-18 points as he rarely turns the ball over, will rush for about 30 yards and get a touchdown one way or the other. This week he should be able to get over the conservative hump and be a fantasy game changer. 

Russell Wilson,  Wilson is at home, which usually means a very good game regardless of who they are playing.  This week Revis and company are coming to town, but expect 20 points at the minimum as Wilson's running ability is always good for 5-8 points.  If Wilson can put together a big passing game, it could be a great day for Wilson owners.

Desperation

Geno Smith,  Smith has had a very up and down year and this is an opportunity for it to go back up as the Saints always seem to have a tough time on the road and maybe you catch Geno on the upswing.  If you are desperate in a 2 quarterback league, Geno may be your man.

Stay Away

Joe Flacco, going against Joe Haden and company, expect Flacco to be under some pressure as the Browns defense has been getting better and better.  With Haden taking away a side, it will make it difficult for Flacco and company.  They are coming off a bye, which could leave Flacco owners with a glimmer of hope.

Tom Brady,  it is pretty amazing to ever say this, but he has not been great all season and now with a rivalry game against the #2 passing defense in town, you should look elsewhere.  Who am I kidding?  These are the same type of games where he surprises everybody and throws for 400 and 4 touchdowns.  Good luck figuring this guy out this season.

Running Backs

Demarco Murray,  should be back in action this week and I expect him to feast on one of the NFL's worst all around defenses, but particularly bad against the run with Minnesota coming to town.

Arian Foster,  this is rivalry game on Sunday night and they have Case Keenum starting.  I assume that with Ben Tate nursing some fractured ribs, Foster will be getting the bulk of the carries and they are going to try and run the ball against the Colts.  Should be able to get over the century mark, but has not been scoring with the same frequency Foster owners have been accustomed to.

Bilal Powell,  should get a lot of carries with the Saints coming to town.  Powell should get 20 carries at home against a suspect run defense.

Leveon Bell,  going against a depleted middle of the defense with Mayo and Wilfork out, expect Bell to get a good amount of carries and take full advantage of them.

Desperation

Can CJ break the century mark
for the first time this week?

Chris Johnson, did not think it would come to picking Powell as a guy to start and CJ2000k as a desperation pick, but when you have not scored a rushing touchdown or had a 100 yard game, that is how the cookie crumbles.  He has not been as bad in a PPR league as he has been catching balls out of the backfield and even scored this way in 2 of the past 3 weeks.

Stay Away

Ray Rice,  I know they are coming off a bye and have tried to recommit to him, but they are playing the Browns, who have a solid defense, and Rice never seems to do too well against them.

Fred Jackson,  Spiller is back in the mix, KC is coming to town and they have no idea who will be playing quarterback for the Bills.  Those all seem like pretty good reasons not to start Jackson.

Wide Receivers

TY Hilton and Darius Heyward Bey, with Reggie Wayne out, somebody is going to need to pick up the slack.  Heyward Bey is going to most likely take Reggie's spot and TY has already been a pretty good option.  Both will see upside and if you are desperate Darius may be the guy.

Josh Gordon, should be an every week start now that we know Campbell is comfortable throwing him the ball as evidence from last week's game against KC.  Should have an easier time with Baltimore and another week of practice with Campbell.

Desperation

Kendall Wright, if you are looking for a guy to give you some consistent numbers, this is your man.  Unfortunately, he consistently gives you no touchdowns, but he gets 7 or 8 catches for over 70 yards most of the time.  If you have to pick somebody up, especially in a PPR league, Wright could help you.

Kenny Stills and Lance Moore,  if Cromartie ends up covering Graham, Brees will be looking to throw to some other guys and these 2 may be the ones to benefit.  Stills is turning into his longball guy and Moore just came back last week and should begin to see more targets.

Tight Ends

Coby Fleener,  Fleener is beginning to become more important to this offense an with Reggie Wayne out for the rest of the season, this could be the perfect time to pick this guy up.  Outside of a couple of tight ends, it is pretty much a crap shoot on who to start, why not take a chance on this guy.

Defense

Dallas,  there are a lot of Cowboys on this list, so I might as well add these guys.  Going against a Minnesota team that relies too heavily on Peterson, the Cowboys will be happy to see a quarterback that can't throw as their secondary has been pretty abysmal.  They should be looking to go at the Minnesota running game and cross their fingers that Ponder doesn't figure it out.

Suicide Picks for week 9

It is week 9 and if you are one of the lucky few that has Seattle left, they are playing at home against Tampa Bay.  If this game was not at home, I would think about giving this game a stay away as the Bucs can play some defense and Seattle does not have a ton of offense.  In Seattle, it is a different story though and I would expect you to use Seattle this late in the season in a suicide pool.  Most people will not have the luxury of having them left.

I find myself with a lot of stay away candidates as opposed to games that I like, but since we have to choose somebody, let us see if we can find some picks.

Although I hate to pick these guys as they are very hard to figure out, the Dallas Cowboys are at home against the Minnesota Vikings and had they had a tough loss last week.  They usually turn it around after one of those losses, so I expect this defense that has a hard time against the pass to welcome the poorly passing Vikings and put all of their efforts into stopping Adrian Peterson.  It probably won't be a blow out, but they will do enough to win.

Due to the lack of choices, I am going to pick New Orleans to beat the Jets, but these pesky Jets always seem to win the games they are not supposed to.  It seems that Sexy Rexy will be using one of Belichick's moves and covering Jimmy Graham with Antonio Cromartie, which is a smart move, but can the Jets cover everybody else including the new deep threat Kenny Stills.  The one issue I have with this game is Drew Brees' ability to lay duds on the road.  I would still pick these guys as there are not great options, but it could be an eliminator.

Stay Away



Bowe is a big reason
the Chiefs can not
move the ball

New England over Pittsburgh, this is a tough one as despite the fact that Pitt has been not doing that well, they are more than capable of beating New England as this is still a rivalry.  The Patriots have already been having a hard time throwing the ball, I don't suspect it will get easier with the #2 pass defense coming to town. 

San Diego over Washington, if you were thinking of going this route, I would suggest against it as the Chargers are playing pretty well this year, but the Redskins seem to be finding their way and more important they are at home this week.  RGIII is becoming more and more comfortable and I could easily see the Redskins pull off a victory this week.

Fantasy for Week 8

I am going to do something that I have recently, which is to double up after a guy didn't produce expected numbers.  The Cowboys-Eagles game from last week, which I thought would have produced some great fantasy numbers, ended up being a dud to some degree.  Romo threw for over 300 yards but was not able to get in the end zone that much.  This week, expect him to really go off as the real kicker is that I am playing against him and Dez Bryant, so I am expecting 2 touchdowns from that connection.  On to the list.

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo, going against another good offense in Detroit, this week I expect the score to reach high twenties and maybe thirties for these guys.  Detroit has a solid d line, so even around the goal line expect Romo to sling it.  Should be a big day for him,



Don't sleep on
Matty Ice!

RGIII, he has started picking up the pace and this is another good week as he will be throwing a ton to keep up with the Broncos and who knows maybe even pull off an upset.  The extra points from running will be a huge help for everybody but Alfred Morris owners.

Mike Vick,  feel free to start him and hope that he doesn't get hurt.  This game means something as they are a game behind Dallas and in reality 2 games behind as they lost to them last week.  They also don't want the Giants starting to get going either as a loss would put them only a game ahead of them as well.

Matty Ryan,  people are worried about him having no receivers, but Matty Ice will give you 2 touchdowns a week as they are committed to throwing the ball and they really can't run that well, especially against a pretty good run defense in Arizona.

Stay Away

Don't love Geno Smith going into Cincy, but if you are desperate, he has been coming through so if you have to, might as well.  Don't really like Terrelle Pryor going against a Steeler defense who has been pretty underrated this year.

Running Backs

Fred Jackson,  with Spiller out, look for Jackson to get majority of the carries and they will need it to slow down the Saints offense.  Jackson is also a big help as a receiver that will give you some extra points in PPR.

Knowshon,, should be an every week starter, but in case he isn't, smarten up, especially in PPR.  Peyton has been sharing the love as Moreno had 3 touchdowns 2 weeks ago and he could replicate this week.

Eddie Lacy,  going against  a weak Minnesota defense and losing receivers by the minute, this guy should have a day.

Frank Gore, going against a really bad run defense in Jacksonville, Gore may have 100 yards by the half.  Bad news is that he also might be out by the half and Kendall Hunter and company may get some touches.

Desperate

Andre Ellington, with Mendenhall doubtful for this game, Ellington should get a much bigger role.  Problem is, we are not sure what he will do with it.  Should be available, just in case you need somebody.

Roy Helu,  this is mostly for PPR leagues as his receiving is what you are looking to gain from.  Don't expect him to be a goal line back as he is in there mainly due to the hurry up offense and you can't switch running backs.  Now, if I am wrong and he scores twice today, maybe there is a changing of the guard.

Stay away

MJD,  not sure if people are still starting him, but they may be down early and he will lose carries.  Not getting a ton of looks out of the backfield, so he may be a risk in PPR leagues as well.

Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson,  might have 25 targets today as there is nobody else in town to throw to.  Only downside is if they are up big and just run the clock down.

Garcon and Reed, the Redskins should be throwing a good amount today and I expect these 2 to be the primary recipients.  Reed may be available so if you are desperate, you may pick up a big sleeper for week 8.

Harry Douglas, more due to less, somebody has to be catching balls and it might as well be Harry.  White is fighting injuries and I would expect Gonzo to be double covered.  The rest will be Rodgers out of the backfield and they may line him up in the slot with Steven Jackson back.

Stay Away

Josh Gordon,  I like Gordon a lot, but not this week.  He has Jason Campbell throwing to him and they are playing the Chiefs, maybe a tough one for him.  If you have nobody else, roll the dice as he can always break a big play.

Suicide Picks for Week 8

If you are still alive, congratulations as it is not that easy getting to week 8 as there are upsets fairly often.  If you have stockpiled some stronger teams, you have some great options.  Two of my favorites are coming from the NFC West.

Seattle is playing the St. Louis Rams without Sam Bradford.  Need I say more as this game should be over by the half.  No real analysis needed here.

San Francisco is playing the Jacksonville Jaguars and they are starting to hit their stride on offense and may be getting healthier on defense as well.  This is not a really good combination for the rest of the NFL, but it is an absolute disaster for Jacksonville this weekend.  Jacksonville are terrible against the run and that is exactly what San Francisco wants to do.  Colin K might not be needed to do much passing in this one.

Stay Away

Bowe a big reason, this
offense can't make big plays.

There are a couple of teams that will probably end up winning, but I would stay away from as there are better options.  It may sound crazy, but the Washington Redskins are starting to put up some points and they can run the ball, which can help keep Peyton off the field.  If I had to choose, I would go with Denver, but I wouldn't use them this week.  The other team I would stay away from are the Kansas City Chiefs, who are playing the Cleveland Browns.  This seems to be an easy pick, but the Browns have a pretty solid defense and the Chiefs' offense seems to be lacking firepower as well.  Whenever you are talking about those types of teams, you never know what can happen and the Chiefs are due for a loss and it usually happens in these types of situations.

Fantasy for week 7

We are now getting to the heat of the battles in fantasy as we are reaching the half way point after this weekend in most leagues.  By now, you probably know how good your team is and if it is anything like mine and it is not very good, it may be time that you make some kind of move to give your team a boost.  I am not even sure I have anybody that somebody might want.  At any rate, let us see if we can help out by ending the first half of the season on a good note.

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton might be ready
to go on a second half of the
season run.  

Cam Newton, he was rated as the preseason #4 overall qb, but I have never thought that he was that high and so far this season, he has not been dominant.  He had a very good week last week and I think that he is going to keep it going against the Rams.  Might be the time to try and trade for this guy as he has been known to go on second half runs as well. 

Tony Romo,  going against Philly without Demarco Murray, they will probably pass a little bit more and this could be a high scoring game.  I also like Nick Foles in this one as for the same reason, they are going to have to keep up with them.  He has been looking pretty good in this offense and should be picked up if he is still available, he may keep the job.

Eli Manning,  they need to get it going at some point and this may be the week to get their first victory and that will be done with the arm of Eli.  Minnesota has not been able to do much to stop the pass and I don't expect it to begin this week.

Stay Away

Sam Bradford,  the Rams will be going against a very underrated Carolina defense.  Coming off a big win over Houston, this could be a tough game for these guys as they never seem to put 2 games in a row. 

Aaron Rodgers, you would obviously have to have a very good second quarterback, but in a 1 qb league, that could happen.  He is down a couple of receivers and going against a good Browns defense, with one corner shutting down half the field.  Mr. Rodgers has not been outstanding this year as he has thrown as many picks(3) as touchdowns over the last 3 games. 

Running Backs

Steven Ridley, should keep it going, now that he is in Belichick's good graces again.  The Jets have some good defensive lineman, but with Gronk back, the Patriots may begin to look a little bit more like the Patriots of old.    Good for at least a touchdown and the majority of the carries, but may even surprise with 2 touchdowns.

Matt Forte,  should be an every week start, especially this year, but Forte should have an especially good game this week against the Redskins. 

Whoever is getting the majority of carries for Dallas, at this point, we are not sure who is starting as it may be Murray, but more likely Joseph Randle or a couple of other no name guys that may just make that name tomorrow.

Lamar Miller, the Dolphins are really trying to run the ball and Miller should be able to get a lot of carries against Buffalo's weak run defense.  Should be a good option for a second running back or if you are lucky a slash spot, which would mean you have 3 solid running backs.  A crazy thought in this day and age.

Stay Away

Ray Rice, they are giving him a lot more carries that he began the season with, but yards have been hard to come by and I don't expect that to change this week against the Steelers. 

Spiller/Jackson, never mind the fact that you never know who will get the majority of the touches, they are also going against the Bengals.  Not a good matchup for the Bills.

Wide Receivers

Wallace/Hartline, I like the Dolphins, coming off a bye going against the Bills.  One or both of these guys should have a good day and if it is Wallace, Hartline can still have a solid day for PPR Leagues. 

Vincent Jackson, expect this guy to keep it going as they will probably be throwing going up against the Falcons, who are coming off a bye.  Glennon seems to like Jackson, so he should get a lot of targets.

Desperation Play

Keenan Allen,  you can roll the dice and see if Rivers really is making this guy his go to receiver.  Why not as you know that Rivers is going to create offense and somebody needs to be on the other end of those passes.  This could be the big pick up you have been waiting for.

Stay Away

Patriot Receivers, going into a tough rivalry game in New York, I expect the Patriots to be run heavy and use play action. The ball will be spread around and we don't know what to expect with Gronk out there for the flow. Hopefully, you have better options.

Tight End

Jermichael Finley,  I am hoping, personally, that this guy is going to get back on track as I have him, but if the injuries to the Packer receivers helped anybody, it would be this guy.  Should get more targets and hopefully can do something with them.

Suicide Picks for Week 7

It was good to see that I was able to give some good advice after a big loss in week 5.  The only one that I missed on was telling people to stay away from Dallas, which for all intents and purposes just means there are better options.  For week 6, it looks to be one of the toughest weeks out there.  I am going to stick with what has worked and pick the Chargers.

San Diego is travelling to the opposite coast to play the winless Jaguars.  Now, this is by far the best pick in my opinion, but this would not be the biggest surprise for the Jags to pull this one out.  The big thing that San Diego has going for it, was the fact that the Jags played Denver last week and really gave a good effort, which may lead to them giving a bad one this week.  The Chargers have been known to lay a dud against lower opponents, but they are the best option on a tough week to pick.

Brady to Gronk will get underway
for the first time this week.  I am sure
Brady is pretty excited to get a
familiar face back.

If I couldn't go with San Diego, I would probably go with either New England over the Jets or Green Bay to beat Cleveland.  Neither of them are going to be easy, but sometimes tough decisions need to be made.  The Patriots will most likely finally get Gronk back this week, but just in time to lose Jerrod Mayo out for the season.  I would like to think with the fact that Billy B has more tape on Geno Smith, that he should be able to throw more at him and cause him to make mistakes, much like the first time they played.

Green Bay are losing receivers left and right, but they still have Rodgers and the Browns still have Weeden, who I did like at one point, but he has not really turned the corner.  The Browns have a strong defense, but little offense and they are going to Lambeau, which is never an easy place to play.  The Packers should be able to score enough to win.

Stay Away

KC and Houston, I realize that Case Keenum is starting for the Texans and KC has a great defense, but they don't have a high scoring offense and Houston has a pretty good defense as well.  I am not saying that Houston will definitely win, but there are better options.  Foster and the Texan line can do work against a middle of the pack run defense.

Fantasy for week 6

Hopefully, people can forgive me for my week 5 blunders as I could not have predicted a tsunami in Cincinnati where Brady would have arguably one of his worst fantasy outings of his career.  I don't really know how anybody could have thrown in that, but I should have factored that in, so I do have to put it on my shoulders to some degree.  The same can be said about Calvin Johnson not playing, which is always going to put a damper on Matt Stafford, which it obviously did.  So I am going to try to make it right this week and go out on a limb and say that Mr. Brady must be started again.  Booommmmm!

Quarterbacks

Mr. Brady, no excuses this weekend as the Saints are coming to town and Brady is going to need to be at his best.  Belichick has a plan ready and they are going to do something with Jimmy Graham to slow him down, maybe Mr. Talib covers him, which would be a good size matchup.  This should keep the game lower scoring than most people expect and I expect Brady with the hopeful addition of Gronk for the first time and with Amendola starting to get back to 100%, this offense should be clicking.  I do expect them to be running quite often as they will want to keep Brees and company off the field, but they will need to be able to sling the rock to get this victory.  Go with Mr. Brady.

Dare I say Matt Schaub, yes I do.  He is going against a shaky St. Louis defense that will have a hard tie stopping the run and Schaub will be able to play action for at least a couple of touchdowns in this one.  There are worse options than Schaub this week and I think he does okay and makes people realize that Houston were a very good team the last 2 seasons.  When everybody is selling, it is usually the best time to buy.

Joe Flacco,  going against Green Bay minus Clay Matthews, Flacco much like Brady will need to throw the ball as they are going against Aaron Rodgers.  Green Bay has not been great against the pass although they looked good last week against the Lions without Megatron.  Jim Caldwell will have Flacco ready for this one and it should be a pretty good game as well.

Stay Away

Vick/Foles, not sure who is starting for the Eagles this week, but I would stay away as the Bucs have been doing a fairly good job this year on defense.  If they could just find a quarterback, they would probably be either 3-1 or dare I say 4-0 this season.

Colin Kaepernick,  I have him so this hurts to say, but until he starts running the ball, he is not a good fantasy play.  Especially against teams that have a cornerback that can shut down the only receiver on the roster that has any ability to play in this league, which will happen this weekend with Anquan Boldin most likely being covered by Patrick Peterson.

Running Backs

Green Ellis/Gio Bernard,  I like these guys this week as they are going against Buffalo and both should get some touches.  Gio Bernard is more of a play in a ppr league as he still does not get the true goal line touches.  Not a huge Green Ellis fan in fantasy, but he might be able to get a couple of scores this week.

Doug Martin, should have a big week even though Philadelphia should expect him to get 40 carries with Mike Glennon playing quarterback.  They are pretty bad defensively against the run which should at least allow Martin to average 3 yards a carry, which should give him 120 yards for this week.  Maybe he does something crazy and averages 4.  We will see.

Knowshon Moreno, this guy has been a fantasy revival.  I wish everything I heard didn't say that Montee Ball would be the guy.  Should have a pretty good week, my main concern would be that they are up pretty big and let Hillman and Ball play the majority of the second half.  Turning into an every week start and he already should be in ppr leagues. 

Stay away,

Chris Johnson, he seems to be up here on this list every week.  Going into Seattle off a loss is not good for anybody, but especially running backs.  No quarterback to count on, this could be ugly.

Fred Jackson/Spiller,  Thad Lewis is your quarterback and you are playing the Bengals, this could be a tough one.  This year is pretty tough as consistent fantasy running backs are pretty much non-existent.  If you have somebody else go with them.

Wide Receivers

I hit gold with Justin Blackmon last week and I think we roll the dice this week as they will definitely be throwing the ball a lot towards this guy.  He may end up with 10 catches just by catching 50% of the targets.  Cecil Shorts may also be a play as he seems to be doing okay despite Blackmon coming back.

Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown, Mr. Smith has turned into an every week start, but if you are desperate Marlon Brown has been doing okay and I think he has scored in both weeks that I have put him on this list. 

Greg Jennings,  I think Matt Cassel seems to like him a little bit better than Ponder does and going against Carolina, we think you can plug him in if you have to as he may have another decent performance.

Desperate

Golden Tate, I don't think that he is going to put up a touchdown every week but he does seem to be the guy Wilson will throw it up to in those situations.  If you need somebody, he may still be out there and you may get a touchdown out of him.

Stay away

Desean Jackson, Mr. Revis will be covering him and that has not been great for receivers this year or any other.  In ppr, he may be able to get you some catches so if you are desperate you can keep him and hope that he breaks a big one along with a few catches as well.

Anquan Boldin, Patrick Peterson will be covering as there is nobody else to cover and the 49ers seem to be happy running the ball. 

Tight Ends

Garrett Graham, no more Owen Daniels.  Schaub loves throwing to his tight ends and it is usually a safer throw, even though it was not last weekend, but I expect this guy to get some targets so don't be scared to pick this guy up and use him this week despite the nay sayers.